16130 Canaridge Dr · Houston, TX 77053

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 134 Days on market

Built 1984 4,281 sqft lot $161/sqft · at area comps Est $214k · at est. $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AFFORDABLE WELL MAINTAINED 3/2/2 - MASTER DOWN, WOOD-LOOK TILE, RECENT CARPET, VAULTED CEILINGS, WALKING DISTANCE TO AREA SCHOOL, NEIGHBORHOOD PARK WITH WALKING TRAILS IN AN ESTABLISHED COMMUNITY. RECENT UPDATES INCLUDE - ROOF 2016, AC AND WATER HEATER IN 2017. CALL/TEXT FOR YOUR SHOWING TODAY!

Key facts

• 4,281 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1984

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-91 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,036 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.90%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,641
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -4.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16123 Canaridge Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,265 (-1%)	0mo	$220,000	$174	97
16222 Coyridge Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,275 (+0%)	2mo	$235,000	$184	89
6306 Clayridge Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,219 (-4%)	9mo	$200,000	$164	75
6647 Villarreal Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,268 (-0%)	0mo	$194,800	$154	75
5606 Lyden Ridge Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,258 (-1%)	1mo	$194,900	$155	75
6214 Clayridge Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+11%)	7mo	$213,000	$151	69
15615 Raven Trl	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,268 (-0%)	5mo	$229,999	$181	67
6431 Marinwood Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+10%)	1mo	$270,000	$192	62
6631 Indian Falls Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,310 (+3%)	8mo	$191,500	$146	59
6706 Castleview Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+7%)	2mo	$195,000	$143	53
7015 Trigate Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,179 (-7%)	7mo	$219,999	$187	47
6618 Castleview Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,458 (+15%)	1mo	$260,000	$178	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-41,176
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-51,986
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77053

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,760 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$303 /mo · $3,637/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,875

Max offer price $188,956

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16211 Corsair Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1139	$1,813	$1.59	24d	1	0.18mi
6406 Summer Ridge Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,958	$1.21	2d	1	0.58mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Apt 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,292	$1.26	5d	1	0.59mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 16465 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,524	$1.13	43d	1	0.59mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,481	$1.10	2d	1	0.59mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,327	$1.29	10d	1	0.59mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 2112 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,284	$1.25	2d	1	0.59mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 16489 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,317	$1.28	43d	1	0.59mi
16432 Chimney Rock Rd Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,513	$1.12	10d	1	0.59mi
5721 Melanite Ave Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1634	$1,481	$0.91	19d	1	0.62mi
6610 Rowell Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1753	$2,056	$1.17	5d	1	0.69mi
16603 Sentinel Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,799	$1.39	16d	1	0.76mi
5030 Shadowridge Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,800	$1.37	43d	1	1.10mi
5030 Ridgecreek Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,659	$1.19	2d	1	1.17mi
15810 Boonridge Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,750	$1.43	43d	1	1.39mi
15703 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,615	$1.29	19d	1	1.41mi
15823 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,641	$1.23	5d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $205,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $205,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $205,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $205,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-05-11
    price $205,000
12. 2026-04-04
    price $210,000
13. 2026-03-07
    price $215,000
14. 2026-01-30
    listed $225,000 Active
15. 2026-01-15
    historical $1,595
16. 2026-01-15
    price $1,595
17. 2025-12-25
    price $1,610
18. 2025-12-18
    price $1,625
19. 2025-12-11
    price $1,635
20. 2025-12-03
    listed $1,650
21. 2022-06-29
    soldstatus
22. 2022-06-24
    soldstatus Sold 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    AFFORDABLE WELL MAINTAINED 3/2/2 - MASTER DOWN, WOOD-LOOK TILE, RECENT CARPET, VAULTED CEILINGS, WALKING DISTANCE TO AREA SCHOOL, NEIGHBORHOOD PARK WITH WALKING TRAILS IN AN ESTABLISHED COMMUNITY. RECENT UPDATES INCLUDE - ROOF 2016, AC AND WATER HEATER IN 2017. CALL/TEXT FOR YOUR SHOWING TODAY!

23. 2022-06-01
    status Pending 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    AFFORDABLE WELL MAINTAINED 3/2/2 - MASTER DOWN, WOOD-LOOK TILE, RECENT CARPET, VAULTED CEILINGS, WALKING DISTANCE TO AREA SCHOOL, NEIGHBORHOOD PARK WITH WALKING TRAILS IN AN ESTABLISHED COMMUNITY. RECENT UPDATES INCLUDE - ROOF 2016, AC AND WATER HEATER IN 2017. CALL/TEXT FOR YOUR SHOWING TODAY!

24. 2022-05-26
    listed $185,000 Active 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    AFFORDABLE WELL MAINTAINED 3/2/2 - MASTER DOWN, WOOD-LOOK TILE, RECENT CARPET, VAULTED CEILINGS, WALKING DISTANCE TO AREA SCHOOL, NEIGHBORHOOD PARK WITH WALKING TRAILS IN AN ESTABLISHED COMMUNITY. RECENT UPDATES INCLUDE - ROOF 2016, AC AND WATER HEATER IN 2017. CALL/TEXT FOR YOUR SHOWING TODAY!

25. 2017-11-30
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2017-11-01
    status Pending
27. 2017-10-21
    status Active
28. 2017-10-16
    status Pending
29. 2017-10-16
    price $81,000
30. 2017-10-13
    status Active
31. 2017-10-07
    status Pending
32. 2017-10-04
    status Active
33. 2017-09-12
    status Pending
34. 2017-08-24
    status Active
35. 2017-08-14
    status Pending
36. 2017-08-11
    status Active
37. 2017-08-07
    status Pending
38. 2017-08-04
    status Active
39. 2017-07-19
    status Pending
40. 2017-07-10
    status Active
41. 2017-05-15
    status Pending
42. 2017-05-09
    listed $90,000 Active
43. 2007-05-08
    historical
44. 2007-02-08
    listed $81,000
45. 2003-04-01
    soldstatus
46. 2003-01-20
    historical
47. 2002-07-20
    listed $75,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,637 · $303/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,752 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: +$115/yr (+$10/mo · 3.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,637
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,690
• − Management: −$1,690
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$4,580
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,099
• After-tax cash flow: $9/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,198
• Household income: $66,510
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 562.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (54%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% Black 41% Two or more races 22% White 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 49%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.09%
• Current HPI: 266.6541
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.72%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+170.1% since first listed

37 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Rental Removed $1,595 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $1,595 HARMLS
• 2025-12-25 Price Changed $1,610 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $1,625 HARMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $1,635 HARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listed for Rent $1,650 HARMLS
• 2022-06-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-06-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-05-26 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2017-11-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-11-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-10-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2017-10-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-10-16 Price Changed $81,000 HARMLS
• 2017-10-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2017-10-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-10-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2017-09-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-08-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2017-08-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-08-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2017-08-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-08-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2017-07-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-07-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2017-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-05-09 Listed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2007-05-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-02-08 Listed $81,000 HARMLS
• 2003-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-01-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2002-07-20 Listed $75,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,637 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.