627 Halfmoon St · Bellefonte, PA 16823

$253,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,314 sqft · Other public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1939 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the Halfmoon Hill district of Bellefonte overlooking Historic Bellefonte and Talleyrand Park. Neighborhood consist of mostly single family homes all of which reflect pride in ownership. This home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, first floor laundry. Home is in very good state of repair and is just waiting your personal touches. Off street parking to the front of the home with plenty of level rear yard for the kids and or a garage. Enjoy the covered front porch while overhearing the summer sounds of the park. Appliances include: stove, refrig. , stack able washer & dryer.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Talleyrand park
• Off street parking

Tags

• HALFMOON HILL DISTRICT
• HISTORIC BELLEFONTE
• TALLEYRAND PARK
• OFF STREET PARKING
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LEVEL REAR YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Electric service (200+ amp); Oil heating fuel; Electric hot water; Public water supply; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached property; Very good condition
• Construction: Built with frame construction and vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Mixed plumbing (copper and CPVC/PVC); Block and asphalt components; Foundation: Other; Basement: Full, poured concrete, unfinished with side entrance
• Exterior features: Public water; Public sewer; No municipal trash service; Not in a federal flood zone; Pets allowed with no restrictions

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator; Breakfast room adjacent to kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on main level, one on upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating (oil-fired); Electric cooling; 200+ amp electrical service; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Attic; Walk-in shower in bathroom; Breakfast area; Built-in cabinetry; Ceiling fans; Dining area; Plaster walls
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $254k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-230/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.6% in Bellefonte — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#10 in PA, #37 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities D+.
• Bellefonte Area SD (town): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #140 of 539 in PA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bellefonte El Sch (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #654 of 1,518 statewide, top 47%, 335 students, 47% FRL); Bellefonte Area Ms (math 31% / reading 52%, grade F, #234 of 512 statewide, top 47%, 576 students, 28% FRL); Bellefonte Area Hs (math 72%, 847 students, 16% FRL).
• Market conditions: 198 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 399 units permitted in Centre County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Centre County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $203,303 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.32%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-42,415
• Equity at exit: $37,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-38,707
• Equity at exit: $21,953

Cash invested: $71,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16823

• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,033 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,331
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,256/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,057

Max offer price $250,508

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $53	+0% $-19	+5% $-91	+10% $-163
Rent	-10% $-180	-5% $-100	+0% $-19	+5% $61	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $109	-0.5pp $45	base $-19	+0.5pp $-85	+1.0pp $-152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,475
• Closing costs: $7,617
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
227 E Lamb St Bellefonte, PA	3.0	1.5	1756	$2,700	$1.54	44d	1	0.68mi
201 Amberleigh Ln Unit 1 Bellefonte, PA	3.0	2.5	1467	$1,975	$1.35	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $253,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,256 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,134 · $261/mo
• Expected delta: +$878/yr (+$73/mo · 38.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,396
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,222
• − Property taxes: −$2,256
• − Insurance: −$1,270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,952
• − Management: −$1,952
• − Depreciation: −$7,386
• Taxable loss: −$4,641
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,114
• After-tax cash flow: $883/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bellefonte Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4203240
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $54,460
• Composite: 45.25/100
• National rank: #2662
• State rank: #140 of 539 in PA

Livability — Bellefonte

• Score: 92/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #37

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellefonte, PA
• County: Centre County · 99,000 people
• City population: 29,126
• Metro: State College, PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,126
• Household income: $76,245
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 855.0

Population outlook (Centre County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 177,113 people
• By 2030: 185,138 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 196,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 205,070 · +15.8%
• By 2075: 217,575 · +22.8%
• By 2100: 230,649 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Centre

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 48.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: 11.8pp · 2024: 2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.8 2020: D+4.8 2016: D+1.9 2012: R+0.0 2008: D+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.54%
• Current HPI: 202.598
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: State College, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $253,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,256 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.