5811 Forest Timbers Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346

$264,500

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,292 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1997 5,985 sqft lot Est $284k · 7% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Home in Kingwood Glenn with a new sparkling pool! This 2 story home offers a 4 bedroom 2.5 bath! Kitchen was remodeled with cabinets, Granite, Stainless Steel Appliances, Stone accent, with open floor plan overlooking Family room! AC replaced 9/2020, Pool installed!! 2 storage buildings surrounded by lush landscaping in backyard!! Minutes from Dining, IAH, Grand Parkway, and Great Schools!

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Primary suite
• Backyard oasis

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• BACKYARD OASIS
• INGROUND POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by FirstService Residential Texas; Annual association fee of $460

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1997; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private in-ground pool; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the second level; Three additional bedrooms on the second level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace; Four total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $264k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oak Forest El (math 28% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,500 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 755 students, 67% FRL); Timberwood Middle (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,094 students, 54% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 32% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 682 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,519 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $284,208
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5811 Forest Timbers Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,292 (0%)	1mo	$264,500	$115	99
19303 Timber Tree Ct	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,201 (-4%)	2mo	$305,000	$139	77
19331 Timber Tree Ct	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,423 (+6%)	3mo	$299,900	$124	75
5527 Enchanted Timbers Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5	2,348 (+2%)	2mo	$279,900	$119	73
20215 Glen Burn Ct	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,209 (-4%)	0mo	$299,900	$136	73
19311 Forest Fern Ct	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,276 (-1%)	1mo	$299,900	$132	71
5606 Timbers Trail Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,498 (+9%)	1mo	$255,000	$102	67
19102 Milloak Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,490 (+9%)	2mo	$315,000	$127	64
5726 Green Timbers Dr	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,592 (+13%)	1mo	$249,999	$96	62
5502 Moosewood Ct	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,531 (+10%)	3mo	$315,000	$124	58
19518 Alinawood Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,634 (+15%)	1mo	$265,000	$101	57
19922 Big Timber Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,035 (-11%)	1mo	$249,900	$123	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-35,883
• Equity at exit: $64,430

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-47,901
• Equity at exit: $68,153

Cash invested: $74,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 682
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,456 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,387
• Tax from tax record: −$558 /mo · $6,691/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,649

Max offer price $237,519

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3	-5% $-78	+0% $-153	+5% $-228	+10% $-302
Rent	-10% $-347	-5% $-250	+0% $-153	+5% $-56	+10% $41
Rate	-1.0pp $-20	-0.5pp $-85	base $-153	+0.5pp $-221	+1.0pp $-291

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,125
• Closing costs: $7,935
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19322 Forest Fern Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2626	$3,500	$1.33	45d	1	0.56mi
6519 Kings Glen Dr Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1255	$2,813	$2.24	1d	14	0.62mi
20618 Carmine Oak Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2087	$2,195	$1.05	45d	1	0.83mi
20914 Lake Park Trl Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	2462	$2,460	$1.00	7d	1	0.86mi
20906 Greenfield Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2603	$2,200	$0.85	45d	1	0.87mi
20823 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2550	$2,525	$0.99	24d	1	0.89mi
20707 Redbud Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1965	$2,450	$1.25	24d	1	0.98mi
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	45d	1	1.00mi
20143 Dawn Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1617	$1,659	$1.03	1d	1	1.00mi
20143 Dawn Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1617	$1,659	$1.03	45d	1	1.00mi
7131 Maple Walk Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1808	$1,895	$1.05	7d	1	1.02mi
18810 Woodbreeze Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,279	$1.04	26d	1	1.03mi
6731 Auburn Oak Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2433	$2,345	$0.96	24d	1	1.07mi
18810 Summer Anne Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3000	$2,376	$0.79	45d	1	1.08mi
18406 S Roaring River Ct Humble, TX	4.0	4.0	3319	$3,600	$1.08	45d	1	1.13mi
7403 Misty Morning Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,900	$1.17	19d	1	1.20mi
7002 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,869	$1.08	17d	1	1.21mi
19706 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2753	$2,550	$0.93	26d	1	1.29mi
7515 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-08
   listed $264,500 Active
4. 2026-03-06
   historical $2,939
5. 2026-02-28
   price $2,939
6. 2026-02-22
   price $2,999
7. 2026-01-30
   listed $3,099
8. 2021-08-10
   soldstatus
9. 2021-07-28
   soldstatus Sold 404-char remark

   Show marketing remark (404 chars)

   Beautiful Home in Kingwood Glenn with a new sparkling pool! This 2 story home offers a 4 bedroom 2.5 bath! Kitchen was remodeled with cabinets, Granite, Stainless Steel Appliances, Stone accent, with open floor plan overlooking Family room! AC replaced 9/2020, Pool installed!! 2 storage buildings surrounded by lush landscaping in backyard!! Minutes from Dining, IAH, Grand Parkway, and Great Schools!

10. 2021-07-08
    status Pending 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Beautiful Home in Kingwood Glenn with a new sparkling pool! This 2 story home offers a 4 bedroom 2.5 bath! Kitchen was remodeled with cabinets, Granite, Stainless Steel Appliances, Stone accent, with open floor plan overlooking Family room! AC replaced 9/2020, Pool installed!! 2 storage buildings surrounded by lush landscaping in backyard!! Minutes from Dining, IAH, Grand Parkway, and Great Schools!

11. 2021-06-30
    status Option Pending 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Beautiful Home in Kingwood Glenn with a new sparkling pool! This 2 story home offers a 4 bedroom 2.5 bath! Kitchen was remodeled with cabinets, Granite, Stainless Steel Appliances, Stone accent, with open floor plan overlooking Family room! AC replaced 9/2020, Pool installed!! 2 storage buildings surrounded by lush landscaping in backyard!! Minutes from Dining, IAH, Grand Parkway, and Great Schools!

12. 2021-06-23
    listed $269,900 Active 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Beautiful Home in Kingwood Glenn with a new sparkling pool! This 2 story home offers a 4 bedroom 2.5 bath! Kitchen was remodeled with cabinets, Granite, Stainless Steel Appliances, Stone accent, with open floor plan overlooking Family room! AC replaced 9/2020, Pool installed!! 2 storage buildings surrounded by lush landscaping in backyard!! Minutes from Dining, IAH, Grand Parkway, and Great Schools!

13. 2013-02-13
    soldstatus
14. 2013-01-11
    soldstatus Sold 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    Well maintained 2 story, 4/2.5/2 2292SF per App Dist. 12'ceilings in entry & formals. Tile, wood & laminate flooring thru-out. Gas log FP in spacious living area open to kitchen. Ceiling fans thru-out. Master bath:recent frameless shower, garden tub, double sinks. Large backyard, wood deck. Nice landscaping. Alarm system, termite protection plan, sprinklers front & back. Roof replaced 2009. Recent exterior paint 2010. Close to schools, parks, shopping, restaurants, community pool. 20 min. to IAH.

15. 2012-12-01
    historical 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    Well maintained 2 story, 4/2.5/2 2292SF per App Dist. 12'ceilings in entry & formals. Tile, wood & laminate flooring thru-out. Gas log FP in spacious living area open to kitchen. Ceiling fans thru-out. Master bath:recent frameless shower, garden tub, double sinks. Large backyard, wood deck. Nice landscaping. Alarm system, termite protection plan, sprinklers front & back. Roof replaced 2009. Recent exterior paint 2010. Close to schools, parks, shopping, restaurants, community pool. 20 min. to IAH.

16. 2012-07-23
    listed $148,980 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    Well maintained 2 story, 4/2.5/2 2292SF per App Dist. 12'ceilings in entry & formals. Tile, wood & laminate flooring thru-out. Gas log FP in spacious living area open to kitchen. Ceiling fans thru-out. Master bath:recent frameless shower, garden tub, double sinks. Large backyard, wood deck. Nice landscaping. Alarm system, termite protection plan, sprinklers front & back. Roof replaced 2009. Recent exterior paint 2010. Close to schools, parks, shopping, restaurants, community pool. 20 min. to IAH.

17. 1997-08-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,691 · $558/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,691 · $558/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,816
• − Property taxes: −$6,691
• − Insurance: −$1,322
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,358
• − Management: −$2,358
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$7,695
• Taxable loss: −$6,225
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,494
• After-tax cash flow: $-339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+77.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $264,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Rental Removed $2,939 Tricon
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $2,939 Tricon
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $2,999 Tricon
• 2026-01-30 Listed for Rent $3,099 Tricon
• 2021-08-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-07-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-07-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-23 Listed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2013-02-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-01-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-12-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-07-23 Listed $148,980 HARMLS
• 1997-08-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,691 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.