5211 Jones Rd · Mobile, AL 36582

$63,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,690 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1992 6,795 sqft lot $37/sqft · 72% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*Investor special, cash only property.* 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and over 1,600 square feet. Two-story layout with a family room open to the kitchen. Primary bedroom with private bath on the main level, along with a half bath off the hallway and a separate formal living room at the front. Upstairs features two bedrooms connected by a Jack and Jill bathroom, each with private access. Large rear deck. Per seller, hot water is 2 years old. Schedule a showing with your favorite realtor today! *More photos available upon request*.

Key facts

• 6,795 sq ft lot
• Built 1992
• Listed 69 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $63k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $63k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.3% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 250 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $436 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,220 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.34%
• DSCR: 4.17
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,935
• List price: $63,000
• Delta: -72.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7202 Old Military Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,535 (-9%)	8mo	$210,000	$137	75
7563 Willard Dr W	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-6%)	2mo	$212,900	$134	63
5280 Willard Dr N	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,525 (-10%)	4mo	$241,566	$158	60
5219 Willard Dr N	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,635 (-3%)	8mo	$257,232	$157	60
7611 Heaton Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,759 (+4%)	3mo	$230,000	$131	57
5275 Willard Dr N	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+8%)	7mo	$267,346	$147	56
5235 Willard Dr N	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+8%)	6mo	$250,246	$137	54
7575 Kelcey Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,525 (-10%)	6mo	$249,232	$163	54
7560 Kelcey Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,525 (-10%)	8mo	$178,000	$117	53
5420 Helen Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,460 (-14%)	6mo	$158,000	$108	48
7587 Braxton Ct	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+8%)	10mo	$268,850	$148	47
7615 Kelcey Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,454 (-14%)	9mo	$225,000	$155	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $56,589
• Equity at exit: $9,394

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.67×
• Total profit: $135,302
• Equity at exit: $5,447

Cash invested: $17,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36582

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,830 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$330
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $485/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $1,049

Break-even live

Break-even rent $503

Max offer price $63,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,750
• Closing costs: $1,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7669 Willard Ct Theodore, AL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,700	$1.15	14d	1	0.64mi
5831 Belle Terrace Dr Theodore, AL	3.0	1.5	1485	$1,550	$1.04	44d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $63,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $63,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $63,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $63,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $63,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $63,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $63,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $63,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $63,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $63,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $63,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $63,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $68,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $68,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $68,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $68,000 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-04-25
    price $69,999 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    * Cash only property. * 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and over 1,600 square feet all for $73,000. Two-story layout with a family room open to the kitchen. Primary bedroom with private bath on the main level, along with a half bath off the hallway and a separate formal living room at the front. Upstairs features two bedrooms connected by a Jack and Jill bathroom, each with private access. Large rear deck. Per seller, hot water is 2 years old. Schedule a showing with your favorite realtor today! * More photos available upon request * . Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

18. 2026-04-25
    price $69,999 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    * Cash only property. * 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and over 1,600 square feet all for $73,000. Two-story layout with a family room open to the kitchen. Primary bedroom with private bath on the main level, along with a half bath off the hallway and a separate formal living room at the front. Upstairs features two bedrooms connected by a Jack and Jill bathroom, each with private access. Large rear deck. Per seller, hot water is 2 years old. Schedule a showing with your favorite realtor today! * More photos available upon request * . Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

19. 2026-04-10
    listed $73,000 Active 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    * Cash only property. * 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and over 1,600 square feet all for $73,000. Two-story layout with a family room open to the kitchen. Primary bedroom with private bath on the main level, along with a half bath off the hallway and a separate formal living room at the front. Upstairs features two bedrooms connected by a Jack and Jill bathroom, each with private access. Large rear deck. Per seller, hot water is 2 years old. Schedule a showing with your favorite realtor today! * More photos available upon request * . Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

20. 2026-04-10
    listed $73,000 Active 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    * Cash only property. * 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and over 1,600 square feet all for $73,000. Two-story layout with a family room open to the kitchen. Primary bedroom with private bath on the main level, along with a half bath off the hallway and a separate formal living room at the front. Upstairs features two bedrooms connected by a Jack and Jill bathroom, each with private access. Large rear deck. Per seller, hot water is 2 years old. Schedule a showing with your favorite realtor today! * More photos available upon request * . Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

21. 2025-10-08
    listed $99,000 Active
22. 2022-05-11
    soldstatus $69,400
23. 2022-05-06
    soldstatus $69,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $485 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $485 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,529
• − Property taxes: −$485
• − Insurance: −$315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,757
• − Management: −$1,757
• − Depreciation: −$1,833
• Taxable income: $12,286
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,949
• After-tax cash flow: $9,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Mobile

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4262

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mobile, AL
• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• City population: 205,729
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 23,705
• Household income: $64,763
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 431.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 18% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.61%
• Current HPI: 209.7621
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $69,999 GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $69,999 BCAR
• 2026-04-10 Listed $73,000 GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-10 Listed $73,000 BCAR
• 2025-10-08 Listed $99,000 BCAR
• 2022-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $69,400 Public Records
• 2022-05-06 Sold (MLS) $69,400 GCMLS AL

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $485 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.