23 E Valley St · St. Joseph, MO 64504

$45,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 902 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1907 4,356 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * Virtual Showings are available * * This charming 1 possible 2 bedroom home would be perfect for anyone wanting to expand their rental properties or a great starter home. Currently under lease and rents for $650/month. Motivated seller!!

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 1907
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Bungalow style
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Home over 100 years old
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.1 acre (about 37.5 x 120); Located inside city limits

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Bungalow floor plan; Concrete basement

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $45,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$119,966) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $46k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $505 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $46k).
• Cap rate 19.6% vs local median 4.6% in St. Joseph — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Joseph (urban): math 28% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #241 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hosea Elem. (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #980 of 1,115 statewide, top 88%, 438 students, 99% FRL); Spring Garden Middle (math 19% / reading 25%, grade F, #332 of 391 statewide, top 86%, 474 students, 99% FRL); Benton High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #356 of 521 statewide, top 71%, 676 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 53% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 70 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $315 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $45,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.58%
• DSCR: 3.12
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,966
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
224 W Hyde Park Ave	0.20mi	2/1.0 (+1)	840 (-7%)	1mo	$68,000	$81	73
212 Ohio St	0.31mi	2/1.0 (+1)	940 (+4%)	2mo	$90,000	$96	72
501 Ohio St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (+1)	904 (+0%)	3mo	$80,000	$88	69
6112 Carnegie St	0.34mi	2/1.0 (+1)	937 (+4%)	8mo	$125,000	$133	66
6210 S 3rd St	0.24mi	2/1.0 (+1)	812 (-10%)	4mo	$119,900	$148	64
206 Hammond St	0.34mi	2/1.0 (+1)	834 (-8%)	4mo	$107,000	$128	63
6201 Brown St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (+1)	888 (-2%)	7mo	$139,900	$158	62
321 Fleeman St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (+1)	956 (+6%)	7mo	$147,500	$154	58
6620 Carnegie St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (+1)	962 (+7%)	4mo	$94,900	$99	58
402 Blake St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (+1)	932 (+3%)	1mo	$139,000	$149	56
5207 Pryor Ave	0.68mi	2/1.0 (+1)	966 (+7%)	1mo	$69,900	$72	50
6425 Eureka St	0.71mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (+12%)	3mo	$138,000	$137	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $24,795
• Equity at exit: $6,784

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $63,004
• Equity at exit: $3,934

Cash invested: $12,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64504

• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$239
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $328/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $505

Break-even live

Break-even rent $361

Max offer price $45,500

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $531	-5% $518	+0% $505	+5% $492	+10% $479
Rent	-10% $426	-5% $466	+0% $505	+5% $545	+10% $584
Rate	-1.0pp $528	-0.5pp $517	base $505	+0.5pp $493	+1.0pp $481

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,375
• Closing costs: $1,365
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5206 King Hill Ave Unit C St Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	1122	$1,000	$0.89	46d	1	0.66mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $45,500 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $45,500 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $45,500 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,500 Coming Soon 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,500 Coming Soon 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,500 Coming Soon 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,500 Coming Soon 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-12
   listed $45,500 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $328 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $441 · $37/mo
• Expected delta: +$114/yr (+$9/mo · 34.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,549
• − Property taxes: −$328
• − Insurance: −$228
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$1,324
• Taxable income: $5,652
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,357
• After-tax cash flow: $4,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Joseph
• NCES district ID: 2927060
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,007
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #6853
• State rank: #241 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Joseph

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Joseph, MO
• City population: 44,382
• Population (ZIP): 10,286

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,041 people
• By 2030: 88,401 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 86,220 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 83,603 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 76,750 · -13.8%
• By 2100: 67,623 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.0) · D 35.2% · R 63.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -28.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.0 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 149.9895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+85.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Coming Soon $45,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-03-23 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-02 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-17 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-17 Price Changed $39,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-22 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-20 Listed $46,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-08-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-02-19 Listed $24,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-01-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $328 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.