3010 Winston Dr Apt 78 · Burlington, NC 27215

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Condo public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2003 $299/mo HOA · 19% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy low-maintenance living in this top-floor 3BR/2BA condo offering 1,216 sq ft in a convenient Burlington location with easy interstate access—perfect for commuting. Vaulted ceilings create an open feel, and the living room features a cozy gas fireplace. The galley kitchen offers efficient workspace, with a separate laundry room for added convenience. The primary suite includes an ensuite bath and walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms provide flexible space for guests, office, or hobbies. Relax on the private balcony with a storage closet. A functional, comfortable home in a great location! Alamance-Burlington Schools is currently in redistricting please see agent remarks.

Key facts

• Cozy gas fireplace
• Galley kitchen
• Private balcony

Tags

• TOP-FLOOR CONDO
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE
• GALLEY KITCHEN
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-257/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (2.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (2.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.6% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#123 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Alamance-Burlington Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #133 of 178 in NC (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southern Alamance Middle (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #238 of 475 statewide, top 51%, 685 students, 49% FRL); Southern Alamance High (math 69% / reading 54%, grade B-, #199 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,360 students, 43% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 35% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Alamance-Burlington Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 317 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,466 units permitted in Alamance County in 2024 (403 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alamance County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $117k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,220 (2.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.63%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-25,290
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-25,533
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27215

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 317
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,566 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,664/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$299
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,593

Max offer price $141,220

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $61	-5% $20	+0% $-21	+5% $-62	+10% $-103
Rent	-10% $-145	-5% $-83	+0% $-21	+5% $40	+10% $102
Rate	-1.0pp $52	-0.5pp $15	base $-21	+0.5pp $-59	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2802 Eldermont St Unit 2804-B Burlington, NC	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,395	$1.16	23d	1	0.86mi
511 Alamance Rd Burlington, NC	3.0	1.0	1399	$1,495	$1.07	15d	1	0.89mi
185 Rosewood Loop Burlington, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,732	$1.80	23d	9	1.00mi
2978 Ethan Pointe Dr Burlington, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1130	$1,583	$1.40	15d	16	1.01mi
3551 Forestdale Dr Burlington, NC	3.0	1.0–2.0	718	$1,630	$2.27	15d	13	1.13mi
2008 S Mebane St Burlington, NC	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1121	$1,499	$1.34	23d	1	1.24mi
2497 Ashton Park Ln Unit 1 Burlington, NC	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,750	$1.17	15d	1	1.38mi
2495 Ashton Park Ln Burlington, NC	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,750	$1.17	23d	1	1.39mi
750 Boone Station Dr Burlington, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1193	$1,699	$1.42	23d	12	1.40mi
2484 Ashton Park Ln Burlington, NC	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	15d	1	1.41mi
3102 Commerce Pl Burlington, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	876	$1,227	$1.40	15d	7	1.46mi
2408 Ashton Park Ln Burlington, NC	2.0	2.0	939	$1,195	$1.27	15d	1	1.49mi
2408 Ashton Park Ln Burlington, NC	2.0	2.0	939	$1,195	$1.27	23d	1	1.49mi
2408 Ashton Park Ln Unit 1 Burlington, NC	2.0	2.0	939	$1,250	$1.33	23d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $299 · $3,588/yr
• Likely covers: gas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending 692-char remark

   Show marketing remark (692 chars)

   Enjoy low-maintenance living in this top-floor 3BR/2BA condo offering 1,216 sq ft in a convenient Burlington location with easy interstate access—perfect for commuting. Vaulted ceilings create an open feel, and the living room features a cozy gas fireplace. The galley kitchen offers efficient workspace, with a separate laundry room for added convenience. The primary suite includes an ensuite bath and walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms provide flexible space for guests, office, or hobbies. Relax on the private balcony with a storage closet. A functional, comfortable home in a great location! Alamance-Burlington Schools is currently in redistricting please see agent remarks.

2. 2026-04-25
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (692 chars)

   Enjoy low-maintenance living in this top-floor 3BR/2BA condo offering 1,216 sq ft in a convenient Burlington location with easy interstate access—perfect for commuting. Vaulted ceilings create an open feel, and the living room features a cozy gas fireplace. The galley kitchen offers efficient workspace, with a separate laundry room for added convenience. The primary suite includes an ensuite bath and walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms provide flexible space for guests, office, or hobbies. Relax on the private balcony with a storage closet. A functional, comfortable home in a great location! Alamance-Burlington Schools is currently in redistricting please see agent remarks.

3. 2026-04-16
   listed $145,000 Active 692-char remark

   Show marketing remark (692 chars)

   Enjoy low-maintenance living in this top-floor 3BR/2BA condo offering 1,216 sq ft in a convenient Burlington location with easy interstate access—perfect for commuting. Vaulted ceilings create an open feel, and the living room features a cozy gas fireplace. The galley kitchen offers efficient workspace, with a separate laundry room for added convenience. The primary suite includes an ensuite bath and walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms provide flexible space for guests, office, or hobbies. Relax on the private balcony with a storage closet. A functional, comfortable home in a great location! Alamance-Burlington Schools is currently in redistricting please see agent remarks.

4. 2026-04-16
   listed $145,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (692 chars)

   Enjoy low-maintenance living in this top-floor 3BR/2BA condo offering 1,216 sq ft in a convenient Burlington location with easy interstate access—perfect for commuting. Vaulted ceilings create an open feel, and the living room features a cozy gas fireplace. The galley kitchen offers efficient workspace, with a separate laundry room for added convenience. The primary suite includes an ensuite bath and walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms provide flexible space for guests, office, or hobbies. Relax on the private balcony with a storage closet. A functional, comfortable home in a great location! Alamance-Burlington Schools is currently in redistricting please see agent remarks.

5. 2020-12-16
   soldstatus $117,000 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   Great 3 Bedroom and 2 bathroom condo located in Burlington. Updated with new carpet, fresh paint and new toilets. Gas fireplace in the living room with vaulted ceilings, located on the 3rd floor with elevator access. A short drive from Greensboro to Durham.

6. 2020-12-16
   soldstatus $117,000 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   Great 3 Bedroom and 2 bathroom condo located in Burlington. Updated with new carpet, fresh paint and new toilets. Gas fireplace in the living room with vaulted ceilings, located on the 3rd floor with elevator access. A short drive from Greensboro to Durham.

7. 2020-12-16
   soldstatus $117,000

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   Great 3 Bedroom and 2 bathroom condo located in Burlington. Updated with new carpet, fresh paint and new toilets. Gas fireplace in the living room with vaulted ceilings, located on the 3rd floor with elevator access. A short drive from Greensboro to Durham.

8. 2020-09-12
   listed $124,900 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   Great 3 Bedroom and 2 bathroom condo located in Burlington. Updated with new carpet, fresh paint and new toilets. Gas fireplace in the living room with vaulted ceilings, located on the 3rd floor with elevator access. A short drive from Greensboro to Durham.

9. 2020-09-12
   listed $124,900 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   Great 3 Bedroom and 2 bathroom condo located in Burlington. Updated with new carpet, fresh paint and new toilets. Gas fireplace in the living room with vaulted ceilings, located on the 3rd floor with elevator access. A short drive from Greensboro to Durham.

10. 2009-12-31
    historical
11. 2009-10-05
    listed $96,900
12. 2009-09-25
    historical
13. 2008-09-24
    listed $96,900
14. 2008-08-06
    historical
15. 2008-02-06
    listed $105,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,664 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,664 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,664
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,503
• − Management: −$1,503
• − HOA: −$3,588
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$2,533
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$608
• After-tax cash flow: $351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamance-Burlington Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,359
• Composite: 29.68/100
• National rank: #6460
• State rank: #133 of 178 in NC

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #7396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burlington, NC
• County: Alamance County · 173,369 people
• City population: 88,508
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• Population (ZIP): 47,102
• Household income: $68,825
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1497.0

Population outlook (Alamance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 173,381 people
• By 2030: 180,609 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 194,327 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 206,158 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 235,665 · +35.9%
• By 2100: 258,626 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alamance

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.2) · D 45.4% · R 53.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -8.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.2 2020: R+8.4 2016: R+12.9 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -263.87%
• Current HPI: 224.3392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+36.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $145,000 TMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $145,000 Triad MLS
• 2020-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-16 Sold (MLS) $117,000 AMLSNC
• 2020-12-16 Sold (MLS) $117,000 TMLS
• 2020-09-12 Listed $124,900 AMLSNC
• 2020-09-12 Listed $124,900 TMLS
• 2009-12-31 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2009-10-05 Listed $96,900 TMLS
• 2009-09-25 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2008-09-24 Listed $96,900 TMLS
• 2008-08-06 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2008-02-06 Listed $105,900 TMLS

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,664 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.