8654 Tilgham St · Houston, TX 77029

$195,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1955 6,899 sqft lot $118/sqft · at area comps Est $196k · at est. ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into this beautifully remodeled 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, offering 1,656 sq. ft. of modern living space. Every detail has been thoughtfully updated, including stylish flooring, sleek bathrooms, and a contemporary kitchen with fresh finishes. Situated on a spacious corner lot (6,901 sq. ft. ), this property provides ample outdoor space for activities and entertaining. Conveniently located with easy access to major highways and downtown Houston, this home is perfect for families or investors looking for a move-in-ready property. Don’t miss your chance—schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• 6,899 sq ft lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 52 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first floor entry)
• Construction: Built in 1955; Wood siding; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (first floor)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor) — 12x10; Bedroom (first floor) — 12x10; Bedroom (first floor) — 10x14
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Den; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (first floor)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-248 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (22.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pleasantville El (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #4,021 of 4,322 statewide, top 94%, 233 students, 97% FRL); Holland Middle (math 10% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 644 students, 98% FRL); Furr H S (math 8% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 1,173 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,239 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.44%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,373
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -0.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8702 Josie St	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,602 (-3%)	2mo	$208,000	$130	83
8727 Othello St	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,627 (-2%)	11mo	$164,999	$101	74
8754 Guinevere St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (-2%)	4mo	$234,900	$145	70
8743 Pattibob St	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (-5%)	12mo	$208,000	$132	68
8726 Tilgham St	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,456 (-12%)	11mo	$189,990	$130	66
8530 Guinevere St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,597 (-4%)	4mo	$229,900	$144	65
1442 Silverdale St	0.30mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,747 (+6%)	12mo	$140,000	$80	57
1426 Laurentide St	0.24mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,500 (-9%)	13mo	$153,450	$102	55
8527 Bucroft St	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,504 (-9%)	7mo	$189,900	$126	52
1403 Pleasantville Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,860 (+12%)	15mo	$265,000	$142	51
8522 Richcroft St	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,839 (+11%)	10mo	$150,000	$82	43
8766 Flossie Mae St	0.33mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,412 (-15%)	12mo	$194,750	$138	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $90,566
• Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $279,391
• Equity at exit: $378,842

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77029

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,633 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$434 /mo · $5,208/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $-248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,947

Max offer price $151,239

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-137	-5% $-193	+0% $-248	+5% $-303	+10% $-358
Rent	-10% $-377	-5% $-312	+0% $-248	+5% $-183	+10% $-119
Rate	-1.0pp $-150	-0.5pp $-198	base $-248	+0.5pp $-298	+1.0pp $-350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8735 Cowart St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,000	$0.88	45d	1	0.10mi
1629 Demaree Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1520	$2,225	$1.46	26d	1	0.51mi
9709 Cargill St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$2,300	$1.94	45d	1	0.90mi
2203 Pearl St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,570	$1.21	15d	1	1.04mi
9710 Tuffly St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,795	$1.41	26d	1	1.04mi
9821 Turnbow St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,720	$1.51	45d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $195,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $197,500 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $197,500 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $197,500 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-04-30
    listed $197,500 Active 599-char remark
14. 2025-08-11
    historical
15. 2025-08-04
    soldstatus
16. 2025-07-16
    historical $1,650
17. 2025-07-08
    listed $1,650
18. 2025-07-06
    listed $238,500 Active
19. 2025-06-30
    historical $1,650
20. 2025-06-30
    historical
21. 2025-05-17
    listed $1,650
22. 2025-05-16
    historical $1,700
23. 2025-05-03
    price $1,700
24. 2025-04-08
    listed $1,800
25. 2025-02-04
    listed $238,500 Active
26. 2024-07-30
    historical
27. 2024-06-06
    listed $238,500 Active
28. 2023-05-04
    soldstatus
29. 2001-11-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,208 · $434/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,208 · $434/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$5,208
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,568
• − Management: −$1,568
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$6,317
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,516
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,154
• Household income: $48,279
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 457.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 32% Black 22% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 66%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 61%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.53%
• Current HPI: 276.1811
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $197,500 HARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-07-16 Rental Removed $1,650 HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $1,650 HARMLS
• 2025-07-06 Listed $238,500 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Rental Removed $1,650 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-17 Listed for Rent $1,650 HARMLS
• 2025-05-16 Rental Removed $1,700 HARMLS
• 2025-05-03 Price Changed $1,700 HARMLS
• 2025-04-08 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS
• 2025-02-04 Listed $238,500 HARMLS
• 2024-07-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-06 Listed $238,500 HARMLS
• 2023-05-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,208 · +71.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.