201 Holly Dr · West Tawakoni, TX 75474

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,780 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2023 4,792 sqft lot $101/sqft · 29% below area Est $255k · 29% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Walk out your front door only 500 yds is Lake Tawakoni and your HOA community gated boat ramp and gazebo area for fun all year! Located within 30 minutes commute routes to Rockwall, Greenville, Terrell, Lake Fork This home is only a few years old and great for full time home or weekend getaway. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms plus an open living and dining area. Large kitchen with plenty of cabinets. Good curb appeal. Come check it out before it is gone! Sold as-is.

Key facts

• Large kitchen
• Gazebo area
• Plenty of cabinets

Tags

• HOA COMMUNITY GATED BOAT RAMP
• GAZEBO AREA
• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREA
• LARGE KITCHEN
• PLENTY OF CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-120/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (1.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.6% in West Tawakoni — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,337 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Quinlan ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #610 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 335 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,507
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -29.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 Haralson Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,662 (-7%)	4mo	$185,000	$111	78
116 Kirk Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,685 (-5%)	3mo	$295,000	$175	74
204 Kenny Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (+12%)	1mo	$528,000	$264	69
713 Hillburn	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,849 (+4%)	10mo	$269,999	$146	58
117 Indian Oaks Trl	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,920 (+8%)	4mo	$285,000	$148	55
604 Broken Arrow	0.65mi	3/3.0	1,670 (-6%)	4mo	$289,900	$174	52
1000 Shoreline Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,730 (-3%)	12mo	$249,900	$144	51
112 Indian Oaks Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,732 (-3%)	12mo	$284,990	$165	50
273 Hoot Owl Cir	0.49mi	3/2.0	2,001 (+12%)	15mo	$258,000	$129	44
200 Kings Bridge Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,570 (-12%)	16mo	$299,000	$190	43
909 Hillburn Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-14%)	24mo	$294,900	$193	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $97,503
• Equity at exit: $162,068

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.72×
• Total profit: $287,952
• Equity at exit: $349,506

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75474

• Home prices YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 335
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,837 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$443 /mo · $5,311/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,849

Max offer price $178,134

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $41	+0% $-10	+5% $-61	+10% $-112
Rent	-10% $-155	-5% $-83	+0% $-10	+5% $63	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $36	base $-10	+0.5pp $-57	+1.0pp $-104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
104 Perch Dr Quinlan, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$1,795	$0.86	2d	1	0.35mi
206 Perch Dr Quinlan, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,795	$1.15	2d	1	0.40mi
820 Hillside Dr Quinlan, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,800	$1.28	3d	1	0.61mi
200 Dover Dr Unit 1 or 2 West Tawakoni, TX	3.0	2.5	1854	$1,850	$1.00	2d	1	0.63mi
209 Lewald Ln Quinlan, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,600	$1.14	2d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   price $179,900 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,900 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $189,900 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Walk out your front door only 500 yds is Lake Tawakoni and your HOA community gated boat ramp and gazebo area for fun all year! Located within 30 minutes commute routes to Rockwall, Greenville, Terrell, Lake Fork This home is only a few years old and great for full time home or weekend getaway. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms plus an open living and dining area. Large kitchen with plenty of cabinets. Good curb appeal. Come check it out before it is gone! Sold as-is.

16. 2026-03-31
    listed $197,500 Active 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Walk out your front door only 500 yds is Lake Tawakoni and your HOA community gated boat ramp and gazebo area for fun all year! Located within 30 minutes commute routes to Rockwall, Greenville, Terrell, Lake Fork This home is only a few years old and great for full time home or weekend getaway. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms plus an open living and dining area. Large kitchen with plenty of cabinets. Good curb appeal. Come check it out before it is gone! Sold as-is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,311 · $443/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,311 · $443/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$5,311
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,763
• − Management: −$1,763
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$3,008
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$722
• After-tax cash flow: $602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quinlan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836240
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,461
• Composite: 26.16/100
• National rank: #7271
• State rank: #610 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Tawakoni

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1337
• US rank: #23022

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Tawakoni, TX
• County: Hunt County · 71,969 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,671
• Household income: $64,103
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 8% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.95%
• Current HPI: 484.21
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $189,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $197,500 NTREIS

Property tax history

+34.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,311 · +15.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.