26 Canvasback Ln · East Quogue, NY 11942

$999,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,096 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1965 0.42 ac lot $911/sqft · at area comps Est $955k · at est. $34/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Pine Neck Landing a Private Waterfront Community in East Quogue with Bay Beach & Marina access. This well maintained Ranch home offers 3 Bedrooms 2 Full Bathrooms, Kitchen, Living/Dining Area Combo, Oak Floors Throughout and a 1 Car Garage. From the Dining Area you can enjoy the 3 Season Sunroom which leads to the Rear Deck, perfect for entertaining. The Backyard offers plenty of Privacy that abuts 60+ acres of Nature Conservancy Land. This is a Perfect Waterfront Community Getaway close to everything the Hamptons has to offer and is only a short drive to the Ocean Beaches, Fine Dining, & Shopping. There are endless possibilities with .42 acres of land to upgrade and expand the existing house or build you new dream home.

Key facts

• Bay beach access
• Backyard privacy
• Rear deck

Tags

• PRIVATE WATERFRONT COMMUNITY
• BAY BEACH ACCESS
• MARINA ACCESS
• 3 SEASON SUNROOM
• REAR DECK
• BACKYARD PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $999k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($59k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $999k).
• Recommended offer: $939k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $280k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($939k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $425k; list at $999k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $939,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.78%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $955,488
• List price: $999,000
• Delta: 4.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Tarpon Rd	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (+2%)	10mo	$765,000	$683	66
15 Indian Run Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,112 (+2%)	6mo	$1,350,000	$1,214	63
7 Bonita Rd	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (+0%)	21mo	$785,000	$714	60
21 Eisenhower Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,190 (+9%)	16mo	$800,000	$672	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $149,202
• Equity at exit: $148,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $530,816
• Equity at exit: $86,375

Cash invested: $279,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $14,703 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,239
• Tax from tax record: −$617 /mo · $7,409/yr
• Insurance: −$416
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,088
• Net cashflow: $4,882

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,523

Max offer price $999,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,448	-5% $5,165	+0% $4,882	+5% $4,600	+10% $4,317
Rent	-10% $3,721	-5% $4,302	+0% $4,882	+5% $5,463	+10% $6,044
Rate	-1.0pp $5,386	-0.5pp $5,137	base $4,882	+0.5pp $4,624	+1.0pp $4,360

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $249,750
• Closing costs: $29,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 E End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	1.0	976	$4,500	$4.61	44d	1	0.90mi
30 Vail Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1260	$38,500	$30.56	25d	1	0.93mi
168 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1004	$4,000	$3.98	44d	1	0.95mi
22 W End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1368	$16,000	$11.70	5d	1	0.99mi
6 W End Ave East Quogue, NY	2.0	1.0	1011	$10,000	$9.89	44d	1	1.08mi
2 Fairview Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1440	$17,500	$12.15	18d	1	1.20mi
138 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1040	$16,000	$15.38	11d	1	1.23mi
104 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	900	$15,000	$16.67	44d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $999,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $999,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $999,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $999,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $999,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $999,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $999,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $999,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $999,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $999,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $999,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $999,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $999,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $999,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-04-18
    listed $999,000 Active 749-char remark

    Show marketing remark (749 chars)

    Welcome to Pine Neck Landing a Private Waterfront Community in East Quogue with Bay Beach & Marina access. This well maintained Ranch home offers 3 Bedrooms 2 Full Bathrooms, Kitchen, Living/Dining Area Combo, Oak Floors Throughout and a 1 Car Garage. From the Dining Area you can enjoy the 3 Season Sunroom which leads to the Rear Deck, perfect for entertaining. The Backyard offers plenty of Privacy that abuts 60+ acres of Nature Conservancy Land. This is a Perfect Waterfront Community Getaway close to everything the Hamptons has to offer and is only a short drive to the Ocean Beaches, Fine Dining, & Shopping. There are endless possibilities with .42 acres of land to upgrade and expand the existing house or build you new dream home.

16. 2026-03-02
    historical
17. 2025-09-02
    listed $999,000 Active
18. 2011-06-30
    soldstatus $425,000
19. 2001-11-05
    soldstatus $320,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,409 · $617/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,146 · $1,012/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,737/yr (+$395/mo · 63.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $176,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,960
• − Property taxes: −$7,409
• − Insurance: −$10,114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,115
• − Management: −$14,115
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$29,062
• Taxable income: $45,256
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10,862
• After-tax cash flow: $47,728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• City population: 5,871
• Population (ZIP): 5,871

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+212.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $999,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-02 Listed $999,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $425,000 Public Records
• 2001-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $7,409 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.