2841 Fowler Rd #111 · Ceres, CA 95307

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,534 sqft · Manufactured · 15 Days on market

Built 1973 Good condition $130/sqft · 56% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home located on a premium space in the park with a lovely park view. This well-maintained home features a spacious primary suite with a stunning sunken tub and large freestanding shower. Enjoy peaceful mornings with coffee or relaxing evenings from the covered patio overlooking the beautiful greenbelt area. Pride of ownership shines throughout this move-in ready home. Come see all this inviting property has to offer-it may be the perfect place to call home!

Key facts

• Park view
• Remodeled
• Sunken tub

Tags

• REMODELED
• PREMIUM SPACE
• PARK VIEW
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• SUNKEN TUB
• FREESTANDING SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Ceres, CA 95307; directions available to Las Casitas community
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Land lease: No (listed land lease amount noted)

Exterior

• Parking: Guest parking available
• Utilities: Gas plumbed; 220V in kitchen; 220V in laundry; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Double-wide; Updated/remodeled; Built in 1973; Santa Anita make; Composition roof
• Construction: Wood and other skirting
• Exterior features: Patio awning; Carport awning; Porch awning; Shed(s); Cul-de-sac location

Interior

• Kitchen: Island; Laminate counters; Free-standing gas range; Free-standing gas oven; Free-standing refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double sinks; Sunken tub; Tile surfaces; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Formal entry; Porch steps; Covered deck; Railed porch; Covered patio; Storage shed(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet with hookups (electric); Laundry sink; Washer/dryer hookups inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $673 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.8% in Ceres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#923 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D-.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,901 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.44%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,000
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: 56.17%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2841 Fowler #141	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+6%)	12mo	$185,000	$114	74
2841 Fowler #37	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	9mo	$105,000	$73	71
2845 E Hatch Rd #84	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	1mo	$128,000	$89	69
2845 E Hatch Rd #87	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+0%)	8mo	$130,000	$85	66
2845 E Hatch Rd #78	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	3mo	$67,500	$47	61
2845 E Hatch Rd #71	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	22mo	$110,000	$76	50
2845 E Hatch Rd #44	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-9%)	23mo	$160,000	$114	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $10,542
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $64,573
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95307

• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,601 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $673

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $812	-5% $743	+0% $673	+5% $604	+10% $535
Rent	-10% $468	-5% $571	+0% $673	+5% $776	+10% $879
Rate	-1.0pp $774	-0.5pp $724	base $673	+0.5pp $622	+1.0pp $569

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2685 Parkway Ceres, CA	2.0	2.0	1150	$795	$0.69	44d	1	0.28mi
2029 Venus Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,500	$1.87	24d	1	0.41mi
2808 Canyon Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,495	$1.83	22d	1	0.63mi
2232 Ridgeway Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,295	$1.60	14d	1	0.74mi
1120 Landreth Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1559	$3,395	$2.18	14d	1	0.84mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,215
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,497
• − Management: −$2,497
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $5,209
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,250
• After-tax cash flow: $6,832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home is in good condition with modern amenities and a great location. Minor updates could further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace ceiling fans — Modernizes and improves airflow
• Both Replace HVAC units — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans — Modernizes and improves airflow ↑
• Both Replace HVAC units — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ceres Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,178
• Composite: 27.96/100
• National rank: #6858
• State rank: #303 of 517 in CA

Livability — Ceres

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #923
• US rank: #24224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ceres, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 46,310
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,310
• Household income: $80,627
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1102.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 34% White 23% Asian 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -362.75%
• Current HPI: 307.5192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B