406 W 3rd St · Hereford, TX 79045

$39,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

7,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a great project to flip as an investment or a rental? This home might be the perfect one for your needs. This property will only sell for CASH!! Get at me so I can get it in your hands!!

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Listed 9 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.16 acres (50 x 140); Zoned in the 6000 series

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating
• Interior features: South-facing orientation

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $529 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Hereford ISD (town): math 41% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #434 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 23 units permitted in Deaf Smith County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Deaf Smith County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.13%
• DSCR: 3.59
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $27,384
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.16×
• Total profit: $67,272
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79045

• Home prices YoY: -11.2%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $482/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $529

Break-even live

Break-even rent $330

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $551	-5% $540	+0% $529	+5% $518	+10% $507
Rent	-10% $450	-5% $490	+0% $529	+5% $569	+10% $608
Rate	-1.0pp $549	-0.5pp $539	base $529	+0.5pp $519	+1.0pp $509

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Avenue H Unit 10 Hereford, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,000	$1.33	44d	1	0.78mi
106 Avenue H Unit 10 Hereford, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,000	$1.33	21d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 200-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $39,000 Active 200-char remark
3. 2006-10-24
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $482 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $714 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$231/yr (+$19/mo · 47.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$482
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $6,083
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,460
• After-tax cash flow: $4,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hereford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823010
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,593
• Composite: 33.49/100
• National rank: #5446
• State rank: #434 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hereford

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7820

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hereford, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,441

Population outlook (Deaf Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,019 people
• By 2030: 17,665 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 17,099 · -5.1%
• By 2050: 16,479 · -8.5%
• By 2075: 14,130 · -21.6%
• By 2100: 10,352 · -42.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 32% White 21% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 58%

Political lean MEDSL · Deaf Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.6) · D 23.8% · R 75.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -46.8pp · 2024: -51.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.6 2020: R+44.0 2016: R+41.1 2012: R+41.9 2008: R+46.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.57%
• Current HPI: 225.7837
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — AARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $39,000 AARMLS
• 2006-10-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $482 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.