729 Chihuahua St · Lockhart, TX 78644

$70,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 405 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1935 4,599 sqft lot $173/sqft · 45% below area Est $127k · 45% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable Fixer-Upper Opportunity in Lockhart Priced to sell. This is a rare chance to own and personalize a starter home or investment property in the heart of Lockhart. This single-family home offers 1 bedroom and 1 full bathroom in approximately 400+ square feet of interior space on a generous 4,600 square foot lot. The owner has begun remodeling, so this property is ideal for a buyer with vision looking to complete the project and add value. Bring your design ideas and take advantage of the affordable price point — perfect for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone looking for a manageable rehab project in a market with strong demand. Conveniently located near local amenities and within easy reach of downtown Lockhart, this home delivers endless potential.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Investment property
• Local amenities

Tags

• FIXER-UPPER OPPORTUNITY
• INVESTMENT PROPERTY
• GENEROUS LOT
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• ENDLESS POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $329 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.0% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#535 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 452 active listings in the ZIP; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.15%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $127,376
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -45.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $9,669
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $35,607
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78644

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,092 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,649/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $675

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $70,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 114 DOM
14. 2026-02-06
    listed $70,000 Active 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    Affordable Fixer-Upper Opportunity in Lockhart Priced to sell. This is a rare chance to own and personalize a starter home or investment property in the heart of Lockhart. This single-family home offers 1 bedroom and 1 full bathroom in approximately 400+ square feet of interior space on a generous 4,600 square foot lot. The owner has begun remodeling, so this property is ideal for a buyer with vision looking to complete the project and add value. Bring your design ideas and take advantage of the affordable price point — perfect for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone looking for a manageable rehab project in a market with strong demand. Conveniently located near local amenities and within easy reach of downtown Lockhart, this home delivers endless potential.

15. 2025-06-16
    status Active
16. 2025-04-24
    soldstatus
17. 2024-07-17
    status Pending
18. 2024-07-17
    status Pending
19. 2024-07-03
    historical
20. 2024-06-28
    listed Active
21. 2024-06-28
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,649 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,649 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,106
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,649
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,048
• − Management: −$1,048
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $3,053
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$733
• After-tax cash flow: $3,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockhart, TX
• County: Caldwell County · 25,195 people
• City population: 22,348
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,348
• Household income: $74,709
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 324.0

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 23% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.62%
• Current HPI: 239.7906
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $70,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-16 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2025-04-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-07-17 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2024-07-17 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2024-07-03 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2024-06-28 Listed $85,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-06-28 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,649 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.