952 E Lucaya Ave · Venice, FL 34285

$6,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Other · 9 Days on market

Built 1970

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the resort-style 55+ community of Bay Indies, just 2 miles from Venice beachfront and convenient for boating, fishing, dining, and shopping. This two-bedroom, two-bathroom home has 960 square feet and includes an attached shed with a laundry hookup and storage. The roof has been inspected post-hurricane and is intact, with no leaks. Both bathrooms have been recently updated, HVLT flooring throughout, and the kitchen is fully functional with newer appliances but could use updates. The lovely front porch gets afternoon sun, complete with a removable sail for shade if desired. Located on Lucaya Ave, the only street that allows motorcycles in the Bay Indes community. This is a pet-fr

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Swimming pools
• Front porch

Tags

• ATTACHED SHED
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• FULLY FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• FRONT PORCH
• FITNESS CENTER
• SWIMMING POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $6k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $6k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#129 in FL, #1,925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 468 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $45 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $195 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $6,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 29.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 280.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 979.20%
• DSCR: 44.57
• GRM: 0.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 58.03×
• Total profit: $103,799
• Equity at exit: $969

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 143.25×
• Total profit: $258,886
• Equity at exit: $562

Cash invested: $1,820 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34285

• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 468
• Price-to-rent: 0.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,937 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$34
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$8 /mo · $98/yr
• Insurance: −$3
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $1,485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $57

Max offer price $6,500

Occupancy floor 18%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,490	-5% $1,487	+0% $1,485	+5% $1,483	+10% $1,481
Rent	-10% $1,332	-5% $1,409	+0% $1,485	+5% $1,562	+10% $1,638
Rate	-1.0pp $1,488	-0.5pp $1,487	base $1,485	+0.5pp $1,483	+1.0pp $1,482

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,625
• Closing costs: $195
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $6,500 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $6,500 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $6,500 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $6,500 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $6,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$364
• − Property taxes: −$98
• − Insurance: −$32
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,859
• − Management: −$1,859
• − Depreciation: −$189
• Taxable income: $18,839
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,521
• After-tax cash flow: $13,300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Venice

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #1925

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Venice, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 86,541
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,677
• Household income: $68,301
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 747.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 5% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -329.42%
• Current HPI: 264.6389
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.78%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $6,500 FSBO.com