4020 Park Forest Drive Dr · Flint, MI 48507

$124,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,712 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1963 3,485 sqft lot Est $130k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remodeled in 2026 so of course it's MOVE IN READY. From a new Kitchen and bathrooms to a new electrical panel and flooring this 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath townhouse could be the starter home or investment property that you've been waiting for.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• New flooring
• New bathrooms

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW BATHROOMS
• NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL
• NEW FLOORING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Ground-level entry
• Construction: Wood siding; Slab foundation; Built with traditional construction materials
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Cats and dogs allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric oven; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave; Gas water heater
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Total of 7 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($798/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 11.5% in Flint — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#196 in MI, #4,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Flint School District (urban): math 7% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #714 of 760 in MI (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Holmes Stem Middle School Academy (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #420 of 493 statewide, top 86%, 324 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 207 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $125k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $112,132 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.28%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $130,112
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1902 Windsor Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,586 (-7%)	0mo	$135,000	$85	80
1818 Rockcreek Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,710 (-0%)	6mo	$130,000	$76	78
1933 Greenbriar Ln	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,471 (-14%)	3mo	$132,900	$90	71
1741 Carmanbrook Pkwy	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,696 (-1%)	4mo	$6,000	$4	67
3296 Brookgate Dr	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,702 (-1%)	8mo	$185,000	$109	67
1814 Penbrook Ln	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,957 (+14%)	3mo	$42,000	$21	64
1409 Lynton Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,615 (-6%)	8mo	$169,900	$105	60
1701 Crestbrook Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,768 (+3%)	8mo	$41,000	$23	58
1621 Greenbrook Ln	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,631 (-5%)	8mo	$87,549	$54	54
1920 Crestbrook Ln	0.49mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,495 (-13%)	8mo	$85,000	$57	44
1232 Bel Air Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,938 (+13%)	1mo	$195,000	$101	34
1524 Waldman Ave	0.64mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,460 (-15%)	10mo	$59,000	$40	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-19,302
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-24,096
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48507

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,121 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,037

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $137	-5% $102	+0% $66	+5% $31	+10% $-4
Rent	-10% $-22	-5% $22	+0% $66	+5% $111	+10% $155
Rate	-1.0pp $129	-0.5pp $98	base $66	+0.5pp $34	+1.0pp $1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1935 Carmanbrook Pkwy Flint, MI	4.0	1.5	1800	$1,200	$0.67	15d	1	0.45mi
1410 Bradley Ave Flint, MI	3.0	1.5	1160	$995	$0.86	22d	1	1.09mi
912 Waldman Ave Flint, MI	3.0	2.0	1223	$675	$0.55	15d	1	1.13mi
2610 Swayze St Flint, MI	3.0	1.5	1194	$950	$0.80	22d	1	1.23mi
3901 Herrick St Flint, MI	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,300	$1.18	15d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,900 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $124,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $124,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    status $124,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-05-18
    status Pending 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Remodeled in 2026 so of course it's MOVE IN READY. From a new Kitchen and bathrooms to a new electrical panel and flooring this 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath townhouse could be the starter home or investment property that you've been waiting for.

12. 2026-05-18
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Remodeled in 2026 so of course it's MOVE IN READY. From a new Kitchen and bathrooms to a new electrical panel and flooring this 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath townhouse could be the starter home or investment property that you've been waiting for.

13. 2026-05-13
    listed $124,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Remodeled in 2026 so of course it's MOVE IN READY. From a new Kitchen and bathrooms to a new electrical panel and flooring this 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath townhouse could be the starter home or investment property that you've been waiting for.

14. 2026-05-13
    listed $124,900 Active 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Remodeled in 2026 so of course it's MOVE IN READY. From a new Kitchen and bathrooms to a new electrical panel and flooring this 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath townhouse could be the starter home or investment property that you've been waiting for.

15. 2025-12-19
    soldstatus $52,000 Closed 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1.5 bath condo in Flint. Potential investment opportunity needing rehab. Buyers agent to verify all information in this listing.

16. 2025-12-19
    soldstatus $52,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1.5 bath condo in Flint. Potential investment opportunity needing rehab. Buyers agent to verify all information in this listing.

17. 2025-12-12
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1.5 bath condo in Flint. Potential investment opportunity needing rehab. Buyers agent to verify all information in this listing.

18. 2025-12-12
    status Pending 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1.5 bath condo in Flint. Potential investment opportunity needing rehab. Buyers agent to verify all information in this listing.

19. 2025-11-25
    price $59,900 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1.5 bath condo in Flint. Potential investment opportunity needing rehab. Buyers agent to verify all information in this listing.

20. 2025-11-24
    price $59,900
21. 2025-09-16
    listed $69,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1.5 bath condo in Flint. Potential investment opportunity needing rehab. Buyers agent to verify all information in this listing.

22. 2025-09-16
    listed $69,900 Active 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1.5 bath condo in Flint. Potential investment opportunity needing rehab. Buyers agent to verify all information in this listing.

23. 1997-06-17
    soldstatus $67,000
24. 1997-06-17
    soldstatus $67,000
25. 1997-04-08
    listed $64,900
26. 1997-04-08
    listed $64,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,348 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,636 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$288/yr (+$24/mo · 21.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,076
• − Management: −$1,076
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$1,299
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$312
• After-tax cash flow: $1,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flint School District
• NCES district ID: 2614520
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 13% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $25,954
• Composite: 10.97/100
• National rank: #14642
• State rank: #714 of 760 in MI

Livability — Flint

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #4946

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flint, MI
• County: Genesee County · 221,329 people
• City population: 93,814
• Metro: Flint, MI
• Population (ZIP): 28,723
• Household income: $46,554
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1534.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 28% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.90%
• Current HPI: 132.3632
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.04%
• Metro: Flint, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+92.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-18 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-13 Listed $124,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-13 Listed $124,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-19 Sold (MLS) $52,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-19 Sold (MLS) $52,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-12 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-12-12 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $59,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-09-16 Listed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-09-16 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1997-06-17 Sold (MLS) $67,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1997-06-17 Sold (MLS) $67,000 REALCOMP
• 1997-04-08 Listed $64,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1997-04-08 Listed $64,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,348 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.