31643 Howard St · Tavares, FL 32778

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,898 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1968 6,097 sqft lot $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fully furnished and uniquely designed, this spacious 3 bed/2 bath home perfectly combines comfort and functionality. Step inside to find an expansive living area featuring a sunken bonus space to extend your living options. The kitchen boasts Whirlpool stainless steel appliances, a custom built-in pantry, and an adaptable island that can be repositioned to customize your workflow. The primary bedroom showcases a walk-in closet and an ensuite equipped with a convenient indoor laundry space, while two additional bedrooms provide the perfect setup for a guest room, home office, or hobby area. Through the sliding doors is a versatile converted bonus/Additional Bedroom/Florida room, uniquely equ

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Adaptable island
• Sunk bonus space

Tags

• EXPANSIVE LIVING AREA
• SUNK BONUS SPACE
• CUSTOM BUILT-IN PANTRY
• ADAPTABLE ISLAND
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE WITH INDOOR LAUNDRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total annual fees $300; Property type: Residential mobile home; Property subtype: Mobile Home; Zoning: RM
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA with monthly fee of $25; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court; Association fee covers pool and recreational facilities; Association approval required; Association recreation owned; Buyer approval required; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water and well; Septic tank; Cable available; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; Faces east
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built in 1 level
• Exterior features: Front porch; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Storage; Shed(s); Workshop; Irrigation equipment; Lake access to Harris Chain of Lakes; Located in county; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ductless heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Split bedroom floor plan; Walk-in closets; Bonus room; Florida room; Formal separate dining room; Inside utility; Storage rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $629 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 4.5% in Tavares — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in FL, #3,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 501 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,651 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.98%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $423,254
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31714 Terrace Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,704 (-10%)	10mo	$380,000	$223	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $17,911
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $76,181
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32778

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 501
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,023 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,148/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $629

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,227

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4721 Treasure Cay Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$2,000	$1.46	15d	1	0.29mi
4749 Abaco Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	2304	$2,230	$0.97	4d	1	0.34mi
4950 Marsh Harbor Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$2,050	$1.67	4d	1	0.48mi
4567 Barbuda Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1362	$2,150	$1.58	24d	1	0.50mi
3224 Manatee Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,600	$1.02	4d	1	0.70mi
459 E Rosewood Ln #157 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,400	$1.13	22d	1	0.88mi
465 Oak Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	3.0	1550	$1,750	$1.13	24d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-20
    listed $149,900 Active
15. 2025-12-31
    historical
16. 2025-11-25
    price $175,000
17. 2025-10-14
    price $185,000
18. 2025-08-14
    listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,148 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$96/yr (+$8/mo · 8.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,148
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,942
• − Management: −$1,942
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $5,436
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,305
• After-tax cash flow: $6,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tavares

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #3464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 25,042
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,042
• Household income: $63,472
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.07%
• Current HPI: 288.7123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-23.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-14 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,148 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.