3122 Carnaby Ln Unit A · Bridgeton, MO 63044

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 951 sqft · Condo public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1971 $105/sqft · 5% above area Est $95k · 5% over $375/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A Gorgeous ground level condo faces a Large common ground meadow Frequently home to a community of Deer! The condo has been recently remodeled and is move-in ready! A 55+ Community-You are guaranteed to love this affordable & stylish condo. Updated bathroom with acrylic shower surround, vanity and Fixtures. The kitchen was remodeled to create a spacious Kitchen/ Dining Room combo. Vinyl plank flooring throughout. Washer/Dryer included (as is) Easy care-free living and more affordable than most rent. Bridgeton offers many amenities including one of the most well equip community centers in the St Louis area. Featuring indoor and outdoor pools and a senior transportation program. This central location makes it easy to get around town. Just minutes from HWY 270, 364 & 70! Take a tour, seeing is believing! Carports across the street for a low monthly fee when available.

Key facts

• $375 HOA
• Built 1971
• Listed 117 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $468 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 5.3% in Bridgeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#691 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Pattonville R-III (suburban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #147 of 324 in MO (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $100k implies a 308% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.06%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,102
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: 5.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $13,818
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $51,307
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63044

• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,879 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $921/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$375
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,288

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11091 Saxonhall Dr Bridgeton, MO	3.0	1.0	1034	$1,706	$1.65	17d	1	0.27mi
3253 Greenbridge Dr Bridgeton, MO	3.0	1.5	1066	$2,561	$2.40	10d	1	0.32mi
11120 Graben Dr St Ann, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	850	$1,250	$1.47	1d	14	0.76mi
11042 Florence Ave Saint Ann, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,300	$1.50	12d	1	0.87mi
7 Edgeworth Ave Maryland Heights, MO	3.0	1.5	988	$1,995	$2.02	23d	1	1.01mi
11918 Brookmont Dr Maryland Heights, MO	3.0	1.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	43d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $375 · $4,500/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-03-27
    price $104,900 886-char remark

    Show marketing remark (886 chars)

    A Gorgeous ground level condo faces a Large common ground meadow Frequently home to a community of Deer! The condo has been recently remodeled and is move-in ready! A 55+ Community-You are guaranteed to love this affordable & stylish condo. Updated bathroom with acrylic shower surround, vanity and Fixtures. The kitchen was remodeled to create a spacious Kitchen/ Dining Room combo. Vinyl plank flooring throughout. Washer/Dryer included (as is) Easy care-free living and more affordable than most rent. Bridgeton offers many amenities including one of the most well equip community centers in the St Louis area. Featuring indoor and outdoor pools and a senior transportation program. This central location makes it easy to get around town. Just minutes from HWY 270, 364 & 70! Take a tour, seeing is believing! Carports across the street for a low monthly fee when available.

15. 2026-02-21
    listed $109,900 Active 886-char remark

    Show marketing remark (886 chars)

    A Gorgeous ground level condo faces a Large common ground meadow Frequently home to a community of Deer! The condo has been recently remodeled and is move-in ready! A 55+ Community-You are guaranteed to love this affordable & stylish condo. Updated bathroom with acrylic shower surround, vanity and Fixtures. The kitchen was remodeled to create a spacious Kitchen/ Dining Room combo. Vinyl plank flooring throughout. Washer/Dryer included (as is) Easy care-free living and more affordable than most rent. Bridgeton offers many amenities including one of the most well equip community centers in the St Louis area. Featuring indoor and outdoor pools and a senior transportation program. This central location makes it easy to get around town. Just minutes from HWY 270, 364 & 70! Take a tour, seeing is believing! Carports across the street for a low monthly fee when available.

16. 2026-02-19
    historical $109,900 886-char remark

    Show marketing remark (886 chars)

    A Gorgeous ground level condo faces a Large common ground meadow Frequently home to a community of Deer! The condo has been recently remodeled and is move-in ready! A 55+ Community-You are guaranteed to love this affordable & stylish condo. Updated bathroom with acrylic shower surround, vanity and Fixtures. The kitchen was remodeled to create a spacious Kitchen/ Dining Room combo. Vinyl plank flooring throughout. Washer/Dryer included (as is) Easy care-free living and more affordable than most rent. Bridgeton offers many amenities including one of the most well equip community centers in the St Louis area. Featuring indoor and outdoor pools and a senior transportation program. This central location makes it easy to get around town. Just minutes from HWY 270, 364 & 70! Take a tour, seeing is believing! Carports across the street for a low monthly fee when available.

17. 2020-01-27
    soldstatus $24,500
18. 2011-11-29
    soldstatus $35,000
19. 1990-01-01
    soldstatus $37,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $921 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $969 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$48/yr (+$4/mo · 5.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,554
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$921
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,804
• − Management: −$1,804
• − HOA: −$4,500
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $4,523
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,085
• After-tax cash flow: $4,525/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pattonville R-III
• NCES district ID: 2923700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,786
• Composite: 33.69/100
• National rank: #5383
• State rank: #147 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bridgeton

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #691
• US rank: #22610

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bridgeton, MO
• City population: 10,510
• Population (ZIP): 10,510

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Swedish 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -254.60%
• Current HPI: 207.5311
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+183.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $104,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-21 Listed $109,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Coming Soon $109,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $24,500 Public Records
• 2011-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1990-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $921 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.