2216 German St · Erie, PA 16503

$14,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1917 5,279 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Single Family house with 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath. This property is an opportunity to invest in the renovation of Erie properties. The bones on this house are sturdy but need interior and exterior renovations. All offers must be submitted via Erie Land Bank Developer Proposal. See attachment.

Key facts

• Exterior renovations
• Interior renovations
• 5,279 sq ft lot

Tags

• INTERIOR RENOVATIONS
• EXTERIOR RENOVATIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $791 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $14k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 70.0% vs local median 5.1% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $957 of equity ($103 loan paydown + $854 appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($14k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $14,453 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 69.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 227.38%
• DSCR: 11.12
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $105,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
239 E 25th St	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,404 (-0%)	1mo	$77,500	$55	91
2002 Cottage Ave	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-1%)	7mo	$105,000	$75	66
2824 German St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,300 (-8%)	7mo	$90,100	$69	63
242 E 32 St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,336 (-5%)	3mo	$75,201	$56	61
3114 Old French Rd	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,320 (-6%)	4mo	$152,000	$115	60
248 Maiden Ln	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,349 (-4%)	0mo	$175,950	$130	60
2521 Wayne St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,360 (-3%)	4mo	$80,000	$59	58
149 E 30th St	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,236 (-12%)	4mo	$143,500	$116	50
215 W 20th St	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,248 (-11%)	2mo	$125,000	$100	49
314 E 13th St	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (-6%)	5mo	$93,000	$70	48
209 W 20th St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-11%)	3mo	$90,000	$72	46
3216 French St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,220 (-13%)	2mo	$175,000	$143	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.05×
• Total profit: $54,430
• Equity at exit: $9,114

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 29.95×
• Total profit: $120,780
• Equity at exit: $16,313

Cash invested: $4,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16503

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,131 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$78
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$19 /mo · $224/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $791

Break-even live

Break-even rent $130

Max offer price $14,900

Occupancy floor 25%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $801	-5% $796	+0% $791	+5% $785	+10% $780
Rent	-10% $701	-5% $746	+0% $791	+5% $835	+10% $880
Rate	-1.0pp $798	-0.5pp $794	base $791	+0.5pp $787	+1.0pp $783

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,725
• Closing costs: $447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
614 E 22nd St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	45d	1	0.47mi
115 W 32nd St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,050	$0.57	45d	1	0.75mi
223 E 9th St Erie, PA	2.0	2.0	1564	$1,300	$0.83	45d	1	0.88mi
504 W 29th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	45d	1	1.04mi
126 W 38th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1850	$4,000	$2.16	45d	1	1.07mi
519 E 6th St Unit 3 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$775	$0.86	45d	1	1.15mi
923 Chestnut St Unit 2 Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	45d	1	1.17mi
100 Erie Insurance Pl Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,425	$1.27	45d	1	1.18mi
16 W 5th St Apt 504 Erie, PA	2.0	1.5	1072	$2,499	$2.33	45d	1	1.26mi
1610 Poplar St Unit Downstairs Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$875	$0.73	45d	1	1.29mi
622 E 4th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	45d	1	1.37mi
3603 Maple St Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,000	$0.83	45d	1	1.42mi
811 W 30th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,175	$1.31	45d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-09-15
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-12
   listed $14,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$835
• − Property taxes: −$224
• − Insurance: −$74
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,086
• − Management: −$1,086
• − Depreciation: −$433
• Taxable income: $9,834
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,360
• After-tax cash flow: $7,126/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,204

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · India, Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.73%
• Current HPI: 135.5955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-15 Pending — GEBOR
• 2025-08-12 Listed $14,900 GEBOR

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,147 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.