1831 W Blackhawk Ct · Citrus Springs, FL 34434

$289,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,806 sqft · Land · 156 Days on market

Built 2026 0.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE IN READY! AVAILABLE NOW! The stunning Sylvester floor plan offers four spacious bedrooms, two full bathrooms, a rare three-car garage, and 1,806 square feet of beautifully designed living space. This open-concept home features a bright and welcoming great room that flows effortlessly into a modern kitchen, where a gorgeous walk-around island creates the perfect centerpiece for entertaining and everyday living. The split-bedroom layout offers maximum privacy, with the owner’s suite thoughtfully positioned on one side of the home and three additional bedrooms on the other. This is the perfect setup for families, guests, or even a home office. With a full one-year builder warrantie

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 0.31 acres (0.25–0.5 range); Concrete road access; Homestead not indicated; Zoned PDR; Home warranty included

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity available and connected; Sewer available and connected; Underground utilities; Water available and connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Faces south; New construction; Completed condition
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Holiday Builders (model: Sylvester)
• Exterior features: Rear porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air
• Interior features: Solid wood cabinets; Split bedroom floorplan; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-436 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (31.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#521 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Citrus Springs Elementary School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 817 students, 71% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1247 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $290k implies a 2800% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,504 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.44%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-74,722
• Equity at exit: $43,238

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-100,692
• Equity at exit: $25,073

Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34434

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 1247
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,985 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,350/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-436

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,537

Max offer price $226,918

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-235	-5% $-336	+0% $-436	+5% $-536	+10% $-636
Rent	-10% $-593	-5% $-514	+0% $-436	+5% $-357	+10% $-279
Rate	-1.0pp $-290	-0.5pp $-362	base $-436	+0.5pp $-511	+1.0pp $-587

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,498
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1924 W Roseboro Dr Dunnellon, FL	4.0	2.0	1449	$1,795	$1.24	23d	1	0.10mi
10990 N Adler Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,100	$1.15	23d	1	0.59mi
10872 N Frantz Ave Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1449	$1,815	$1.25	23d	1	0.60mi
2315 W Striblin Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.5	2172	$2,050	$0.94	23d	1	0.86mi
1150 W G Martinelli Blvd Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,600	$1.25	23d	1	0.87mi
9995 N Sandree Dr Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,895	$1.30	23d	1	0.91mi
11112 N Easter Ter Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,800	$1.00	23d	1	0.95mi
11128 N Easter Ter Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,800	$1.00	23d	1	0.96mi
2799 W Sheila Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1449	$1,815	$1.25	23d	1	1.03mi
2186 W G Martinelli Blvd Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,950	$1.35	23d	1	1.04mi
9676 N Jourden Dr Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,750	$1.29	23d	1	1.09mi
9475 N Camel Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	23d	1	1.12mi
2955 W Pintado Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.5	2054	$2,095	$1.02	23d	1	1.15mi
2963 W Sheila Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	3.0	1952	$1,850	$0.95	23d	1	1.17mi
11127 N Trigger Ter Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,795	$1.27	23d	1	1.24mi
9730 N Elkcam Blvd Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1672	$1,785	$1.07	23d	1	1.27mi
9298 N Mendoza Way Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	23d	1	1.34mi
11745 W Shenandoah Way Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	3.0	1836	$1,745	$0.95	23d	1	1.49mi
9305 N Citrus Springs Blvd Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,800	$1.28	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,990 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $289,990 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,990 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $289,990 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $289,990 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,990 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,990 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,990 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,990 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    status Active
17. 2026-04-17
    status Pending
18. 2026-02-13
    price $279,990
19. 2025-12-13
    listed $284,990 Active
20. 2024-03-15
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$4,350
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,906
• − Management: −$1,906
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$10,471
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,513
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Citrus Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #9598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Springs, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 10,730
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,074
• Household income: $68,939
• Rent vs Own: 12.4% rent · 87.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 171.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.70%
• Current HPI: 328.2164
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2699.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $279,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-13 Listed $284,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $314 · +121.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.