633 Keller St · Bay St. Louis, MS 39520

$219,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,078 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1970 0.35 ac lot Est $278k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled under the majestic canopy of live oak trees, this delightful mid-century home offers an inviting blend of space and comfort. The property boasts approximately 1,602 square feet of living space on a rare double lot, providing plenty of room to relax and entertain. Step inside to find a freshly painted interior featuring a spacious living room that invites natural light, a dedicated dining area, and 3 comfortable bedrooms alongside 2 full baths. The home also offers a versatile space that is ideal for use as a home office, studio, or creative workspace. The property includes a storage barn and a partially fenced yard, perfect for gardening, outdoor hobbies, or simply enjoying the sere

Key facts

• Double lot
• Storage barn
• Home office

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• STORAGE BARN
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD
• HOME OFFICE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Near entertainment

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One level
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year per assessor)
• Exterior features: City lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Water heater
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry room inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 1.9% in Bay St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bay St Louis Waveland School District (suburban): math 51% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #21 of 130 in MS (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 601 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 248 units permitted in Hancock County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hancock County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,745 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.07%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $278,124
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
438 Ballentine St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,060 (-2%)	11mo	$274,000	$258	71
520 Bookter St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,066 (-1%)	3mo	$219,900	$206	69
253 Sycamore St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,048 (-3%)	4mo	$445,000	$425	60
866 Washington St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,162 (+8%)	10mo	$292,000	$251	57
104 Boudin Ln	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,149 (+7%)	1mo	$325,000	$283	56
534 Saint John St	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,210 (+12%)	6mo	$269,000	$222	54
542 Demontluzin Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0	989 (-8%)	12mo	$275,000	$278	50
544 Demontluzin Ave	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,198 (+11%)	2mo	$159,900	$133	49
515 Spanish Acres Dr	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,178 (+9%)	8mo	$159,000	$135	47
298 Union St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+9%)	7mo	$324,300	$276	45
401 Third St	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,204 (+12%)	1mo	$229,000	$190	40
406 Easterbrook St	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,209 (+12%)	8mo	$407,900	$337	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-19,087
• Equity at exit: $32,728

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $4,486
• Equity at exit: $18,978

Cash invested: $61,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39520

• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,151
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,866/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,770

Max offer price $219,500

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,875
• Closing costs: $6,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
216 Carre Ct Bay Saint Louis, MS	3.0	2.5	1480	$2,500	$1.69	13d	1	0.72mi
699 Dunbar Ave Bay Saint Louis, MS	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,200	$2.20	21d	1	0.77mi
117 Demontluzin Ave Bay Saint Louis, MS	1.0–2.0	1.0	875	$1,300	$1.49	11d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,500 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,500 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,500 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,500 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,500 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $219,500 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,500 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,500 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,500 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,500 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,500 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,500 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,500 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    price $219,500
15. 2026-03-18
    listed $225,000 Active
16. 2026-01-06
    historical
17. 2026-01-05
    status Active
18. 2025-12-31
    historical
19. 2025-07-30
    listed $225,000 Active
20. 2025-06-17
    historical
21. 2025-01-17
    listed $225,000 Active
22. 2024-11-26
    historical
23. 2024-06-22
    price $289,900
24. 2024-05-30
    listed $305,000 Active
25. 2022-10-09
    historical
26. 2022-08-18
    price $188,000
27. 2022-06-25
    listed $192,000 Active
28. 2022-03-02
    soldstatus
29. 2022-02-25
    soldstatus Closed
30. 2022-02-16
    historical
31. 2022-02-14
    listed $179,000
32. 2022-01-25
    soldstatus Closed
33. 2022-01-06
    status Pending
34. 2021-12-22
    price $150,000
35. 2021-09-09
    listed $159,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,866 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,866 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,176
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,295
• − Property taxes: −$1,866
• − Insurance: −$1,098
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,014
• − Management: −$2,014
• − Depreciation: −$6,385
• Taxable loss: −$496
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$119
• After-tax cash flow: $3,232/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay St Louis Waveland School District
• NCES district ID: 2800570
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $38,774
• Composite: 39.27/100
• National rank: #3998
• State rank: #21 of 130 in MS

Livability — Bay St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay St. Louis, MS
• Population (ZIP): 15,471

Population outlook (Hancock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,161 people
• By 2030: 54,753 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 59,242 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 62,417 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 68,168 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 69,212 · +32.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 11% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hancock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.7) · D 20.1% · R 78.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -58.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.7 2020: R+55.5 2016: R+59.4 2012: R+52.8 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -169.80%
• Current HPI: 227.2103
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+38.1% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $219,500 MLSU
• 2026-03-18 Listed $225,000 MLSU
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2026-01-05 Relisted — MLSU
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-07-30 Listed $225,000 MLSU
• 2025-06-17 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-01-17 Listed $225,000 MLSU
• 2024-11-26 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2024-06-22 Price Changed $289,900 MLSU
• 2024-05-30 Listed $305,000 MLSU
• 2022-10-09 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2022-08-18 Price Changed $188,000 MLSU
• 2022-06-25 Listed $192,000 MLSU
• 2022-03-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-02-25 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2022-02-16 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2022-02-14 Listed $179,000 MLSU
• 2022-01-25 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2022-01-06 Pending — MLSU
• 2021-12-22 Price Changed $150,000 MLSU
• 2021-09-09 Listed $159,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+28.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,866 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.