9820 S Ninth St · Mayer, AZ 86333

$134,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,101 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1967 4,792 sqft lot Est $255k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Searching for an affordable home in Mayer with major recent upgrades? Welcome to 9820 S 9th Street, a charming 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home featuring a brand new septic system and brand new wall heater installed in May 2024. Offering 1,101 square feet of living space, this property combines comfort, functionality, and value in a convenient location with easy access to Highway 69.Inside, you'll find an inviting living area with a cozy wood-burning fireplace, creating a warm and comfortable space to relax and gather. The practical floor plan offers comfortable everyday living, while the additional storage and workshop space provides flexibility for hobbies, projects, tools, or extra storage.Enjoy Arizona's mild weather from the spacious screened and covered front patio, an ideal spot for morning coffee or evening relaxation. A small screened rear porch offers a convenient covered entry and protection from the elements. Additional outdoor features include a workshop, storage shed, carport parking, and a level lot with easy maintenance.With natural gas service, no HOA, and recent system upgrades already completed, this move-in-ready property offers peace of mind and affordability. Conveniently located in Mayer with easy access to Prescott, Prescott Valley, and Phoenix, this home is an excellent opportunity for buyers seeking practical living, useful workspace, and small-town charm.Note: Please do not pull in the back driveway as a new septic system has just been installed.

Key facts

• New wall heater
• New septic system
• Screened rear porch

Tags

• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• NEW WALL HEATER
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• SCREENED COVERED FRONT PATIO
• SCREENED REAR PORCH
• WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Corner lot with desert front and desert back; County-maintained road
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Septic tank / Septic connected; Private water company
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership; Mountain view
• Construction: Wood frame, stone, and brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Screened-in patio(s); Shed(s); Partial fencing; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Ceiling fans; Evaporative cooling; Additional cooling details in remarks
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters; See remarks; Living room fireplace; Solar panels; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $576 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#147 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mayer Elementary School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #570 of 1,109 statewide, top 52%, 373 students, 93% FRL); Mayer High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 200 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 79% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,876 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.29%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,432
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9840 S 8th St	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,150 (+4%)	1mo	$225,000	$196	85
10101 S 3rd St	0.39mi	2/1.0	1,020 (-7%)	1mo	$252,000	$247	65
10029 S First St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	990 (-10%)	6mo	$229,900	$232	49
12723 E Fair Mist Ave	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (+5%)	23mo	$165,000	$143	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.91×
• Total profit: $110,098
• Equity at exit: $121,529

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.82×
• Total profit: $295,309
• Equity at exit: $262,081

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,774 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $741/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $576

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,045

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $652	-5% $614	+0% $576	+5% $538	+10% $499
Rent	-10% $436	-5% $506	+0% $576	+5% $646	+10% $716
Rate	-1.0pp $644	-0.5pp $610	base $576	+0.5pp $541	+1.0pp $505

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $134,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $134,900 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $741 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $890 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$149/yr (+$12/mo · 20.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$741
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,703
• − Management: −$1,703
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $4,981
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,195
• After-tax cash flow: $5,713/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Mayer

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #17284

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mayer, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+670.9% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $134,900 ARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $134,900 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $139,900 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $139,900 ARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $149,900 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $149,900 ARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $165,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-05 Listed $165,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $175,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $200,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-30 Listed $225,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-15 Sold (MLS) $210,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-18 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-04 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-28 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-17 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-17 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-10 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-09 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-07 Listed $215,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-09 Sold (MLS) $56,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-09 Sold (MLS) $56,000 ARMLS
• 2014-01-02 Listed $54,900 ARMLS
• 2007-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $98,000 Public Records
• 1978-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $741 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.