13227 Oxeye Ln · Ruskin, FL 34219

$372,045

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,068 sqft · Land · 55 Days on market

Built 2025 5,162 sqft lot $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Pre-Construction. To be built. The Blue Spring is a thoughtfully designed two-story single-family home offering just under 2,100 square feet of modern living space. With 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a main-floor powder room, and a versatile loft, this open-concept home is ideal for growing families or those who love to entertain. The main floor is centered around a spacious and inviting layout where the kitchen, dining, and great room flow seamlessly together. The kitchen features two full walls of cabinetry, providing abundant storage, along with a pantry and a central island that includes a breakfast bar—perfect for casual dining or morning coffee. The open sightlines from the kitc

Key facts

• Central island
• Pickleball courts
• Open concept

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• OPEN CONCEPT
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• PRIVATE EN SUITE BATHROOM
• RESORT STYLE POOL
• PICKLEBALL COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total annual fees: $180
• Financial info: CDD applicable; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee: $15; Association amenities include pool, playground, pickleball court(s), fenced areas with restrictions, sidewalks and street lights; Association fee includes pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (19 x 20)
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable connected; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two levels; Under construction (projected completion: 2026-11-01); Faces south; PD-MU zoning
• Construction: New construction; Block, cement siding and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Mattamy Homes (model: Blue Spring Modern)
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Sidewalks; Sliding doors; Paved surfaces; Trees and landscaped yard; Florida-friendly/native landscaping

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Loft (additional room)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning; Tankless water heater; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Split-bedroom layout; Thermostat; In-wall pest control system; Pest guard system; Solid surface counters; Walk-in closets; Double-pane, insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (gas); Laundry room (inside)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $372k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-318 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($361k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $287,104 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.66%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-88,902
• Equity at exit: $55,473

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-135,797
• Equity at exit: $32,168

Cash invested: $104,173 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,871 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,951
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$465 /mo · $5,581/yr
• Insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$603
• Net cashflow: $-318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,274

Max offer price $326,030

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-61	-5% $-189	+0% $-318	+5% $-447	+10% $-575
Rent	-10% $-545	-5% $-431	+0% $-318	+5% $-205	+10% $-91
Rate	-1.0pp $-131	-0.5pp $-223	base $-318	+0.5pp $-414	+1.0pp $-512

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,011
• Closing costs: $11,161
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8850 Ginko Run Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1691	$2,600	$1.54	18d	1	0.28mi
12484 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,600	$1.71	25d	1	0.96mi
12573 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,500	$1.65	5d	1	1.05mi
10048 Big Marsh Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2034	$2,825	$1.39	25d	1	1.23mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Unit NA Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,689	$1.19	12d	1	1.44mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,789	$1.23	5d	1	1.44mi
11007 Tamarack Pl Unit NA Duette, FL	4.0	3.0	2537	$3,000	$1.18	13d	1	1.48mi
12067 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,495	$1.22	5d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $372,045 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $372,045 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $372,045 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $372,045 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $372,045 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $372,045 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $372,045 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $372,045 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $372,045 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $372,045 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $372,045 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $372,045 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $372,045 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $372,045 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $372,045 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    listed $372,045 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,452
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,840
• − Property taxes: −$5,581
• − Insurance: −$1,860
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,756
• − Management: −$2,756
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$10,823
• Taxable loss: −$10,344
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,483
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $372,045 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid