4340 Paso Fino Ln · Madisonville, TX 77864

$135,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 2005 3.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fantastic opportunity for 3 acres in Madisonville! 2 bedroom/1.5 bath SF home PLUS an 80' manufactured home ready for your finishing touches! 2 storage sheds. So many possibilities! Book your showing today!

Key facts

• 2 storage sheds
• 80 manufactured home
• 3 acres

Tags

• 3 ACRES
• 80 MANUFACTURED HOME
• 2 STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (entry level: first floor); Built in 2005
• Construction: Wood siding; Unknown other construction material; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor (each approximately 10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window cooling units
• Interior features: Electric fireplace; Satellite dish

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($159/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 1.7% in Madisonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#630 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Madisonville CISD (town): math 53% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #177 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Madisonville El (700 students, 80% FRL); Madisonville J H (math 54% / reading 50%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 546 students, 71% FRL); Madisonville H S (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 695 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,984 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.42%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-21,049
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-17,310
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77864

• Home prices YoY: -13.2%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,130 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,382/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,113

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $90	-5% $51	+0% $13	+5% $-25	+10% $-63
Rent	-10% $-76	-5% $-31	+0% $13	+5% $58	+10% $102
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $48	base $13	+0.5pp $-22	+1.0pp $-57

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $135,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    remarks 206-char remark
11. 2026-06-09
    listed $135,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,382 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,089/yr (+$91/mo · 78.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,558
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,382
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,085
• − Management: −$1,085
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$2,157
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$518
• After-tax cash flow: $676/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madisonville CISD
• NCES district ID: 4828710
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,234
• Composite: 43.02/100
• National rank: #3102
• State rank: #177 of 826 in TX

Livability — Madisonville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #630
• US rank: #12063

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,635
• Population (ZIP): 7,635

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,350 people
• By 2030: 14,854 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 15,876 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 16,631 · +15.9%
• By 2075: 18,375 · +28.0%
• By 2100: 18,600 · +29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.6% · R 82.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+58.2 2016: R+57.6 2012: R+51.3 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.22%
• Current HPI: 225.7727
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $135,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+20.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,382 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.