510 Saddle Brook Dr #86 · San Jose, CA 95136

$204,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 7 Days on market

Built 1971 Est $217k · 5% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter home at low cost in a family friendly community. Located next to Hayes Mansion park. Family is is growing and moving to a bigger home.

Key facts

• Built 1971
• Listed 7 days

Tags

• NEXT TO HAYES MANSION PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Local property tax (LPT)
• HOA & community: Community clubhouse; Community pool; Barbecue area

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces); Assigned space #86; Space rent charged
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Mobile/manufactured home (park home site)
• Construction: 720 living area (source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Leased land (park home site); Located in a family park

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central forced air heating; Window/wall cooling unit
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combined; Eat-in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $757 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $205k).
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 1.6% in San Jose — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#68 in CA, #2,559 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Oak Grove Elementary (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #339 of 1,400 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hayes Elementary (477 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 90 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,838 units permitted in Santa Clara County in 2024 (1,886 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Clara County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $205k implies a 1068% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.83%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,720
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
510 Saddlebrook Dr #82	0.02mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	22mo	$217,000	$301	81
510 Saddle Brook Dr #322	0.02mi	2/1.0	800 (+11%)	5mo	$200,000	$250	76
510 SADDLEBROOK Dr #71	0.09mi	2/1.0	747 (+4%)	16mo	$270,000	$361	76
510 Saddle Brook Dr #245	0.00mi	2/1.0	800 (+11%)	18mo	$195,000	$244	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $16,055
• Equity at exit: $30,551

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $80,368
• Equity at exit: $17,716

Cash invested: $57,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Jose: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+24

Apartment Rent Ordinance covers pre-1979 multifamily.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95136

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,751 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,074/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $757

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,792

Max offer price $204,900

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $899	-5% $828	+0% $757	+5% $686	+10% $615
Rent	-10% $540	-5% $648	+0% $757	+5% $866	+10% $974
Rate	-1.0pp $860	-0.5pp $809	base $757	+0.5pp $704	+1.0pp $650

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,225
• Closing costs: $6,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5210 Monterey Hwy San Jose, CA	1.0	1.0	566	$2,016	$3.56	2d	3	0.32mi
5635 Blossom Gardens Cir San Jose, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	776	$3,025	$3.90	2d	8	0.55mi
110 Roundtable Dr #3 San Jose, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,900	$2.53	2d	1	0.57mi
130 Roundtable Dr San Jose, CA	1.0	1.0	606	$2,399	$3.96	2d	1	0.63mi
5332 Monterey Hwy #25 San Jose, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,095	$2.99	2d	1	0.65mi
229 Blossom Hill Rd San Jose, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	675	$2,550	$3.77	2d	5	0.77mi
5322 Wong Dr San Jose, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$3,217	$4.02	2d	3	0.81mi
4501 Snell Ave San Jose, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	903	$3,599	$3.99	2d	18	0.98mi
5382 Makati Cir San Jose, CA	1.0	1.0	744	$1,300	$1.75	12d	1	1.02mi
5560 Lexington Ave San Jose, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	846	$3,530	$4.17	2d	14	1.17mi
5568 Lexington Ave San Jose, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	720	$2,691	$3.74	0d	1	1.30mi
5805 Charlotte Dr San Jose, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$3,966	$3.78	2d	18	1.47mi
4300 The Woods Dr San Jose, CA	3.0	1.0–3.5	918	$3,484	$3.80	2d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $204,900 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $204,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $204,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 226-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   price $204,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,900 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   remarks 148-char remark
9. 2026-06-13
   listed $214,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone D · 16% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,478
• − Property taxes: −$3,074
• − Insurance: −$1,024
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,641
• − Management: −$2,641
• − Depreciation: −$5,961
• Taxable income: $6,191
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,486
• After-tax cash flow: $7,599/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oak Grove Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0627810
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $92,404
• Composite: 49.23/100
• National rank: #4382
• State rank: #339 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Jose

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #68
• US rank: #2559

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Jose, CA
• County: Santa Clara County · 1,806,974 people
• City population: 954,479
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 48,056
• Household income: $142,433
• Rent vs Own: 41.1% rent · 58.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1653.0

Population outlook (Santa Clara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,179,074 people
• By 2030: 2,301,297 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 2,528,195 · +16.0%
• By 2050: 2,712,135 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 2,998,701 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 2,931,429 · +34.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 36% White 29% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 16% Vietnamese 12% Other Indo-European 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Clara

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.0) · D 68.1% · R 28.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: 40.9pp · 2024: 40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.0 2020: D+47.4 2016: D+52.5 2012: D+42.1 2008: D+40.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1427.80%
• Current HPI: 336.6634
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.36%
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+881.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $214,900 MLSListings
• 2026-06-11 Listed $214,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2004-06-28 Sold (MLS) $17,550 MLSListings
• 2004-05-03 Listed $21,900 MLSListings