638 Fresh Pond Ave #343 · Calverton, NY 11933

$289,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,590 sqft · Manufactured · 25 Days on market

Built 2005 $182/sqft · 38% above area Est $209k · 38% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming home located in a desirable 55+ community, offering comfort, convenience, and an active lifestyle. This well-maintained 3-bedroom residence features recent updates, including a brand-new washer and dryer and newly installed leaf guards on the gutters for added ease of maintenance. Enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the bright and inviting sunroom—perfect for relaxing year-round. Additional highlights include central air conditioning for seasonal comfort and an outdoor storage shed for added convenience. The monthly lot rent, effective May 1, 2026, is $922, with taxes of $366, bringing the total monthly cost to $1,288. Lot rent includes water, cesspool services, street maintenance, common areas, and access to the community clubhouse. Residents can take full advantage of the vibrant clubhouse amenities, featuring fitness equipment, a dart board, pool table, ping pong table, TVs, and a variety of social activities designed to foster an engaging and welcoming community atmosphere. This is a wonderful opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in a friendly, active community. Don’t miss out!

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 2005
• Listed 25 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($49k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $289k).
• Recommended offer: $285k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.4% vs local median 7.2% in Calverton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,053 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: crime C-, schools D, employment D.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $284,665 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.10%
• DSCR: 3.72
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,265
• List price: $289,000
• Delta: 38.10%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
638 Fresh Pond Ave #305	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-1%)	8mo	$290,000	$185	91

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.72×
• Total profit: $301,235
• Equity at exit: $134,192

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.65×
• Total profit: $699,718
• Equity at exit: $210,168

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,023/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,575
• Net cashflow: $4,120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,284

Max offer price $289,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1834 Edwards Ave Calverton, NY	3.0	1.5	1344	$7,500	$5.58	24d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 1149-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1149 chars)

   Welcome to this charming home located in a desirable 55+ community, offering comfort, convenience, and an active lifestyle. This well-maintained 3-bedroom residence features recent updates, including a brand-new washer and dryer and newly installed leaf guards on the gutters for added ease of maintenance. Enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the bright and inviting sunroom—perfect for relaxing year-round. Additional highlights include central air conditioning for seasonal comfort and an outdoor storage shed for added convenience. The monthly lot rent, effective May 1, 2026, is $922, with taxes of $366, bringing the total monthly cost to $1,288. Lot rent includes water, cesspool services, street maintenance, common areas, and access to the community clubhouse. Residents can take full advantage of the vibrant clubhouse amenities, featuring fitness equipment, a dart board, pool table, ping pong table, TVs, and a variety of social activities designed to foster an engaging and welcoming community atmosphere. This is a wonderful opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in a friendly, active community. Don’t miss out!

2. 2026-04-11
   listed $289,000 Active 1149-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1149 chars)

   Welcome to this charming home located in a desirable 55+ community, offering comfort, convenience, and an active lifestyle. This well-maintained 3-bedroom residence features recent updates, including a brand-new washer and dryer and newly installed leaf guards on the gutters for added ease of maintenance. Enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the bright and inviting sunroom—perfect for relaxing year-round. Additional highlights include central air conditioning for seasonal comfort and an outdoor storage shed for added convenience. The monthly lot rent, effective May 1, 2026, is $922, with taxes of $366, bringing the total monthly cost to $1,288. Lot rent includes water, cesspool services, street maintenance, common areas, and access to the community clubhouse. Residents can take full advantage of the vibrant clubhouse amenities, featuring fitness equipment, a dart board, pool table, ping pong table, TVs, and a variety of social activities designed to foster an engaging and welcoming community atmosphere. This is a wonderful opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in a friendly, active community. Don’t miss out!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,023 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,453 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,431/yr (+$119/mo · 70.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $90,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$2,023
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,200
• − Management: −$7,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable income: $47,537
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11,409
• After-tax cash flow: $38,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Calverton

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1053
• US rank: #20908

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C- Employment D Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calverton, NY
• City population: 6,784
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Listed $289,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid