205 Trinity River Holw · San Marcos, TX 78666

$222,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,802 sqft · SingleFamily · 33 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,227 sqft lot Est $231k · at est. $65/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Highgate - Upon entry of this spacious two-story home are the family room, dining room and a chef-ready kitchen arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transition between spaces. Down the hallway is the tranquil owner’s suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom. Upstairs, a sprawling game room offers endless possibilities, while on the opposite end of the floor are three secondary bedrooms to accommodate the family. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion August 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association: River Bridge Ranch; HOA fee $65 per month; HOA includes common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: New construction; Two stories; Faces southeast; Entry level: main (see bedroom info)
• Construction: Built by Lennar; Brick, cement siding and stone exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; New construction condition
• Exterior features: Private yard; Front porch; Privacy fencing; Corner lot; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Multiple dining areas; Walk-in closet(s); Window features: see remarks; Accessibility features: see remarks
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $223k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($161/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1145 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,998 (8.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.26%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $230,656
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
212 Navidad River Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,802 (0%)	1mo	$198,999	$110	98
232 Navidad River Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,802 (0%)	2mo	$215,990	$120	96
208 Trinity River Holw	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,850 (+3%)	1mo	$235,990	$128	91
219 Navidad River Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,845 (+2%)	1mo	$226,990	$123	90
136 Trinity River Holw	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+5%)	1mo	$239,999	$127	89
224 Trinity River Holw	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+5%)	1mo	$229,990	$122	89
235 Navidad River Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+5%)	1mo	$232,990	$123	87
116 Stumpy St	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,845 (+2%)	1mo	$264,990	$144	87
214 Trinity River Holw	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,707 (-5%)	1mo	$223,990	$131	87
109 Navidad River Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,845 (+2%)	2mo	$262,990	$143	86
223 Navidad River Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,707 (-5%)	1mo	$224,990	$132	85
124 Stumpy St	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,000 (+11%)	1mo	$276,990	$138	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-37,294
• Equity at exit: $33,250

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-39,461
• Equity at exit: $19,281

Cash invested: $62,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78666

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1145
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,169
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$279 /mo · $3,345/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,033

Max offer price $222,999

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $90	+0% $13	+5% $-64	+10% $-141
Rent	-10% $-149	-5% $-68	+0% $13	+5% $94	+10% $175
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $70	base $13	+0.5pp $-44	+1.0pp $-103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,750
• Closing costs: $6,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
213 Navidad River Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	2162	$2,195	$1.02	3d	1	0.07mi
308 Navidad River Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	25d	1	0.12mi
426 Spring River Dr Martindale, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$2,250	$1.78	25d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $222,999 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $222,999 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $222,999 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $222,999 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $222,999 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $222,999 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $222,999 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $222,999 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $222,999 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $222,999 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $222,999 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $222,999 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $222,999 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $222,999 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $222,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,491
• − Property taxes: −$3,345
• − Insurance: −$1,115
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$6,487
• Taxable loss: −$3,555
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$853
• After-tax cash flow: $1,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 27 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern finishes. It offers a spacious floor plan and is well-maintained, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing and functional.
• Both Upgrading the bathrooms — Modern bathrooms can enhance the overall appeal and functionality of the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing and functional. ↑
• Both Upgrading the bathrooms — Modern bathrooms can enhance the overall appeal and functionality of the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 88,583
• Household income: $54,737
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6504.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.27%
• Current HPI: 187.6679
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $222,999 Unlock MLS