1815 Sandy Trail Ln · Rosenberg, TX 77469

$334,950

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,769 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 7,758 sqft lot 2-car garage $121/sqft · 5% below area Est $354k · 5% under ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 1815 Sandy Trail Ln, a spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath home situated on a generous lot in the desirable Sunset Crossing community. This two-story property offers approximately 2,769 square feet with multiple living areas, a formal dining area, spacious kitchen, and a comfortable primary suite featuring a private bath and walk-in closet. The home offers plenty of space both inside and out, with a large backyard providing room for outdoor entertaining, gardening, or creating your own private retreat. Additional features include an attached garage, mature landscaping, and ample storage.

Key facts

• Private bath
• Large backyard
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $335k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-629 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (33.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (33.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cora Thomas El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 601 students, 58% FRL); Reading J H (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B+, #134 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 1,588 students, 28% FRL); George Ranch H S (math 52% / reading 76%, grade B-, #224 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 2,511 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1951 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.

Recommended offer $223,816 (33.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.05%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,379
• List price: $334,950
• Delta: -5.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2615 Tranquil Cedar Dr	0.24mi	4/3.5	2,803 (+1%)	3mo	$424,290	$151	82
2619 Tranquil Cedar Dr	0.24mi	4/3.5	2,792 (+1%)	4mo	$461,990	$165	82
2611 Tranquil Cedar Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,614 (-6%)	3mo	$404,940	$155	77
2623 Tranquil Cedar Dr	0.24mi	4/3.5	3,053 (+10%)	4mo	$414,990	$136	66
1018 Larkfield Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,794 (+1%)	6mo	$340,000	$122	60
2514 Shoal Valley Ln	0.70mi	4/3.5	2,668 (-4%)	1mo	$355,000	$133	58
2239 Ginger Trail Ln	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,731 (-1%)	8mo	$399,000	$146	56
7526 Dry Stone Ln	0.63mi	4/3.5	3,041 (+10%)	2mo	$529,900	$174	50
2215 Keystone Ridge Ln	0.74mi	4/3.5	2,546 (-8%)	0mo	$380,000	$149	50
7606 Dry Stone Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,446 (-12%)	2mo	$372,990	$152	48
7319 Creekside Terrace Ln	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,393 (-14%)	5mo	$359,900	$150	48
6707 Ashland Terrace Ln	0.49mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,392 (-14%)	3mo	$329,000	$138	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-101,927
• Equity at exit: $49,942

10-year hold

• IRR: -73.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.81×
• Total profit: $-169,594
• Equity at exit: $28,960

Cash invested: $93,786 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 118 active · 31 under contract
• Months of supply: 28.3 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $574,900 ($201/sqft)
• Median days on market: 99 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -36.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77469

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1951
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,694 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax from tax record: −$862 /mo · $10,338/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $-629

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,491

Max offer price $223,816

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-439	-5% $-534	+0% $-629	+5% $-724	+10% $-819
Rent	-10% $-842	-5% $-736	+0% $-629	+5% $-523	+10% $-416
Rate	-1.0pp $-460	-0.5pp $-544	base $-629	+0.5pp $-716	+1.0pp $-804

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,738
• Closing costs: $10,048
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6730 Trinity Trail Ln Rosenberg, TX	4.0	2.5	2408	$2,361	$0.98	11d	1	0.56mi
1123 Cloud Croft Ln Richmond, TX	4.0	2.5	2513	$2,195	$0.87	64d	1	0.65mi
8723 Jonqil Dr Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	2373	$2,156	$0.91	18d	1	0.79mi
2302 Grande Laurel Ct Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	2832	$2,975	$1.05	94d	1	0.88mi
2302 Grande Laurel Ct Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	2832	$2,975	$1.05	114d	1	0.88mi
2811 Long Grove Ln Richmond, TX	5.0	2.5	2636	$2,001	$0.76	47d	1	1.07mi
8807 Rocky Knoll Ln Rosenberg, TX	4.0	2.5	2597	$2,166	$0.83	11d	1	1.16mi
5835 Euclid Loop Rosenberg, TX	4.0	4.0	2721	$3,000	$1.10	37d	1	1.35mi
615 Arbor Green Ln Rosenberg, TX	4.0	3.0	2564	$3,800	$1.48	139d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of Sunset Crossing Association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2022Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and stucco construction
• Exterior features: Lot with landscaping and other lot featuresComposition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (main level)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 20x18Bedroom (first floor) — 10x14Bedroom (second floor) — 11x13Bedroom (second floor) — 11x12
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heatingCentral electric cooling (central air)
• Interior features: 8 total roomsLiving roomFamily roomKitchen

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $334,950 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $334,950 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $334,950 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $334,950 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $334,950 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $334,950 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $334,950 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $334,950 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-09-16
    pricedays on marketlisting id $334,950 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,990 Active 181 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,990 Active 180 DOM
13. 2025-12-02
    historical
14. 2025-12-02
    listed $379,990 Active 1052-char remark
15. 2025-07-08
    listed $399,990 Active
16. 2024-08-15
    historical
17. 2024-07-16
    price $410,000
18. 2024-06-19
    listed $424,990 Active
19. 2024-06-19
    historical
20. 2024-06-04
    historical $2,750
21. 2024-05-03
    listed $2,750
22. 2024-05-02
    listed $424,990 Active
23. 2024-05-02
    historical
24. 2024-04-30
    price $424,990
25. 2024-02-15
    listed $440,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,338 · $862/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,338 · $862/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,331
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,762
• − Property taxes: −$10,338
• − Insurance: −$1,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,587
• − Management: −$2,587
• − Depreciation: −$9,744
• Taxable loss: −$13,361
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,207
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained home with a modern design and no visible repairs or maintenance needs presents as move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace flooring in bedrooms — Updated flooring can improve the look and feel of the home ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase home value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cora Thomas El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Reading J H B+ TX #134/1,662 Nat'l #1,545/14,009 High Dr Thomas E Randle H S

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 115,151
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,826
• Household income: $102,125
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 29% White 27% Black 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.66%
• Current HPI: 234.9892
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of Sunset Crossing Association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2022Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and stucco construction
• Exterior features: Lot with landscaping and other lot featuresComposition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (main level)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 20x18Bedroom (first floor) — 10x14Bedroom (second floor) — 11x13Bedroom (second floor) — 11x12
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heatingCentral electric cooling (central air)
• Interior features: 8 total roomsLiving roomFamily roomKitchen

Price history

-23.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-09-15 Listed $334,950 HARMLS
• 2026-06-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $379,990 HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed $399,990 HARMLS
• 2024-08-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-07-16 Price Changed $410,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-19 Listed $424,990 HARMLS
• 2024-06-04 Rental Removed $2,750 HARMLS
• 2024-05-03 Listed for Rent $2,750 HARMLS
• 2024-05-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-02 Listed $424,990 HARMLS
• 2024-04-30 Price Changed $424,990 HARMLS
• 2024-02-15 Listed $440,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+91.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $10,338 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.