731 Hill St · Lyndon, VT 05851

$249,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,963 sqft · Other · 17 Days on market

Built 1860 0.42 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 2-unit duplex. The large 2-bedroom ground floor is recently vacant, clean and move-in ready, making this a perfect property for an owner occupant. Loaded with antique architectural flair including: wood floors, built-ins, original trim and doors, bay window, and covered porches. Well maintained with many improvements over the last 20 years. All of the plumbing, electrical, and heating has been replaced during the current millennium. Blown in cellulose insulation from top to bottom and vinyl replacement windows. Great tenant upstairs. Huge grassy yard and plenty of parking in the driveway. Commercial potential with the large lot size, existing zoning, and good visibility from Route

Key facts

• Many improvements
• 2 unit duplex
• Electrical replaced

Tags

• 2 UNIT DUPLEX
• RECENTLY VACANT
• WELL MAINTAINED
• MANY IMPROVEMENTS
• PLUMBING REPLACED
• ELECTRICAL REPLACED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Documents available: Deed, Lease Agreements, Property Disclosure, Tax Map
• Financial info: Two-unit property with annual and month-to-month lease options; Net income reported: $26,311; Operating expenses include heat, insurance, snow removal, trash, utilities, and water/sewer

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway
• Security: Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors present
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 200 amp electric service; Cable internet available (Charter Spectrum); Cable service; Electric company: LED; Fuel provider: Freds
• Home design: Apartment building; Existing structure built in 1860
• Construction: Wood frame construction with asbestos exterior; Metal roof; Concrete basement foundation
• Exterior features: Major road frontage with paved public road access; Sidewalks; In-town location near shopping, public transportation, and schools; Gravel driveway; Dumpster service for trash

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range in each unit; Refrigerator included in each unit
• Bedrooms: One 2-bedroom unit (first level); One 3-bedroom unit (second level)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one in each unit)
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Hot air and hot water systems; No central cooling
• Interior features: Basement with interior access; Concrete basement floor; Carbon monoxide detectors; Smoke detectors; Porches
• Laundry & utility: Heat included in units; Water heater is a heat pump

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($52/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Zoned schools: Lyndon Town School (math 31% / reading 39%, grade F, #121 of 192 statewide, top 63%, 501 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $249k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $208,119 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $135,870
• Equity at exit: $224,319

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.74×
• Total profit: $399,860
• Equity at exit: $483,752

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05851

• Home prices YoY: 9.6%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,081 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,763/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,076

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    remarks 641-char remark
15. 2026-06-01
    listed $249,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,763 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,747 · $312/mo
• Expected delta: +$984/yr (+$82/mo · 35.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$2,763
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,998
• − Management: −$1,998
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$4,221
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,013
• After-tax cash flow: $1,065/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Lyndon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyndonville, VT
• Population (ZIP): 5,972

Population outlook (Caledonia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,828 people
• By 2030: 28,820 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 26,262 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 23,780 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 18,516 · -37.9%
• By 2100: 13,647 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Slovak 6% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caledonia

• 2024 margin: D (+12.4) · D 54.5% · R 42.0% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: 23.3pp · 2024: 12.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.4 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+7.0 2012: D+22.9 2008: D+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.00%
• Current HPI: 319.1832
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+398.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $249,000 PrimeMLS
• 2008-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2002-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,763 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.