2831 Geary Pl #2920 · Winchester, NV 89109

$154,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 761 sqft · Condo public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1973 $478/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just reduced. Welcome to this beautifully appointed 1-bdrm condo located within the prestigious guard-gated Las Vegas Country Club community. Offering both comfort & convenience, this condo features a thoughtfully designed interior that is tastefully decorated & move-in ready. Has new carpet, new paint, new HVAC, granite countertops newer SS appliances, refrigerator, washer, dryer, (furniture opt) providing a seamless living experience from day one. A welcoming atmosphere, ideal for both relaxing & entertaining. Residents of Las Vegas Country Club enjoy access to an array of resort-style amenities, including a championship golf course, sparkling swimming pools, a rejuvenating spa, and a well-appointed community center. With 24-hour guard-gated security and beautifully maintained grounds, this community offers a serene and secure lifestyle in the heart of Las Vegas. Whether you’re seeking a full-time residence or vacation retreat, this charming condo is an exceptional find.

Key facts

• New carpet
• New hvac
• New paint

Tags

• GUARD-GATED COMMUNITY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• NEW CARPET
• NEW PAINT
• NEW HVAC
• NEWER SS APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#3 in NV, #2,272 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Clark County School District (urban): math 21% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #11 of 17 in NV (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 14,754 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (2,301 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,072/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 836% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clark County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,606 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.48%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.22% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-10,943
• Equity at exit: $28,503

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-8,355
• Equity at exit: $22,867

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 71 Landlord-Friendly
• State Nevada: 71 Landlord-Friendly · R+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; Clark County (Vegas) had pandemic backlogs; generally landlord-friendly but courts slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 89109

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Rents YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,072 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $572/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$478
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,775

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2831 Geary Pl #2909 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	1112	$1,899	$1.71	44d	1	0.04mi
322 Karen Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1109	$2,240	$2.02	3d	3	0.27mi
322 Karen Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$2,250	$2.03	4d	3	0.27mi
222 Karen Ave #306 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	2.0	814	$2,300	$2.83	44d	1	0.34mi
222 Karen Ave #3203 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	2.0	814	$2,500	$3.07	44d	1	0.34mi
222 Karen Ave #3005 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.5	814	$2,400	$2.95	24d	1	0.34mi
222 Karen Ave #1105 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.5	814	$1,990	$2.44	44d	1	0.34mi
222 Karen Ave #1004 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.5	814	$2,300	$2.83	24d	1	0.34mi
222 Karen Ave #2904 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.5	814	$2,200	$2.70	2d	1	0.34mi
511 E Sahara Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0	900	$1,195	$1.33	44d	3	0.38mi
900 E Desert Inn Rd Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$1,500	$1.39	44d	5	0.63mi
525 E Saint Louis Ave Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,525	$1.39	44d	1	0.69mi
200 W Sahara Ave #1611 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.0	1090	$1,800	$1.65	44d	1	0.71mi
2700 Las Vegas Blvd S Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0–2.5	1283	$2,792	$2.18	12d	4	0.73mi
2700 Las Vegas Blvd S Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1226	$2,200	$1.79	18d	4	0.73mi
350 E Desert Inn Rd Unit H203 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.5	849	$1,725	$2.03	44d	1	0.77mi
1040 Canosa Ave Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	969	$1,745	$1.80	44d	1	0.93mi
3550 Paradise Rd Las Vegas, NV	3.0	1.0–2.0	947	$1,100	$1.16	44d	20	0.95mi
595 S Royal Crest Cir #18 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	816	$1,575	$1.93	44d	1	1.06mi
123 W Imperial Ave Las Vegas, NV	3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$2,481	$2.58	2d	285	1.26mi
3776 Howard Hughes Pkwy Las Vegas, NV	3.0	1.0–2.5	1548	$2,357	$1.52	2d	9	1.26mi
1201 S 3rd St Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	919	$1,745	$1.90	8d	70	1.33mi
3930 Paradise Rd Las Vegas, NV	3.0	1.0–2.0	999	$2,241	$2.24	3d	87	1.33mi
3930 University Center Dr Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0–3.0	1200	$1,725	$1.44	44d	2	1.42mi
2000 Fashion Show Dr Unit 1501424P Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.0	592	$5,942	$10.04	2d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $478 · $5,736/yr
• Likely covers: gaslandscapingpoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,900 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,900 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,900 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $154,900 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,900 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,900 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-05-06
    price $159,900 1011-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

    Just reduced. Welcome to this beautifully appointed 1-bdrm condo located within the prestigious guard-gated Las Vegas Country Club community. Offering both comfort & convenience, this condo features a thoughtfully designed interior that is tastefully decorated & move-in ready. Has new carpet, new paint, new HVAC, granite countertops newer SS appliances, refrigerator, washer, dryer, (furniture opt) providing a seamless living experience from day one. A welcoming atmosphere, ideal for both relaxing & entertaining. Residents of Las Vegas Country Club enjoy access to an array of resort-style amenities, including a championship golf course, sparkling swimming pools, a rejuvenating spa, and a well-appointed community center. With 24-hour guard-gated security and beautifully maintained grounds, this community offers a serene and secure lifestyle in the heart of Las Vegas. Whether you’re seeking a full-time residence or vacation retreat, this charming condo is an exceptional find.

14. 2026-04-09
    listed $164,900 Active 1011-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

    Just reduced. Welcome to this beautifully appointed 1-bdrm condo located within the prestigious guard-gated Las Vegas Country Club community. Offering both comfort & convenience, this condo features a thoughtfully designed interior that is tastefully decorated & move-in ready. Has new carpet, new paint, new HVAC, granite countertops newer SS appliances, refrigerator, washer, dryer, (furniture opt) providing a seamless living experience from day one. A welcoming atmosphere, ideal for both relaxing & entertaining. Residents of Las Vegas Country Club enjoy access to an array of resort-style amenities, including a championship golf course, sparkling swimming pools, a rejuvenating spa, and a well-appointed community center. With 24-hour guard-gated security and beautifully maintained grounds, this community offers a serene and secure lifestyle in the heart of Las Vegas. Whether you’re seeking a full-time residence or vacation retreat, this charming condo is an exceptional find.

15. 2021-12-03
    soldstatus $172,500 Closed 181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (181 chars)

    Luxury Living in Las Vegas Country Club - A Perfect Golf Getaway with this Upstairs Condo = Darling Unit with Granite Counters, Upgraded Cabinetry & Stainless Steel Appliances

16. 2021-12-03
    soldstatus $172,500

    Show marketing remark (181 chars)

    Luxury Living in Las Vegas Country Club - A Perfect Golf Getaway with this Upstairs Condo = Darling Unit with Granite Counters, Upgraded Cabinetry & Stainless Steel Appliances

17. 2021-11-22
    historical Active Under Contract 181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (181 chars)

    Luxury Living in Las Vegas Country Club - A Perfect Golf Getaway with this Upstairs Condo = Darling Unit with Granite Counters, Upgraded Cabinetry & Stainless Steel Appliances

18. 2021-11-11
    status Active 181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (181 chars)

    Luxury Living in Las Vegas Country Club - A Perfect Golf Getaway with this Upstairs Condo = Darling Unit with Granite Counters, Upgraded Cabinetry & Stainless Steel Appliances

19. 2021-10-28
    historical Active Under Contract 181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (181 chars)

    Luxury Living in Las Vegas Country Club - A Perfect Golf Getaway with this Upstairs Condo = Darling Unit with Granite Counters, Upgraded Cabinetry & Stainless Steel Appliances

20. 2021-10-16
    listed $175,000 Active 181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (181 chars)

    Luxury Living in Las Vegas Country Club - A Perfect Golf Getaway with this Upstairs Condo = Darling Unit with Granite Counters, Upgraded Cabinetry & Stainless Steel Appliances

21. 2021-10-09
    historical
22. 2021-10-08
    status Active
23. 2021-09-03
    listed $174,999 Active
24. 2016-03-31
    soldstatus $64,000 Sold
25. 2016-03-31
    soldstatus $64,000
26. 2016-03-17
    historical Contingent Offer
27. 2015-12-28
    listed $70,000 Exclusive Right
28. 2006-03-30
    soldstatus $196,400
29. 2004-07-29
    soldstatus $49,000,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NV · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $572 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $914 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$342/yr (+$28/mo · 59.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$572
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,989
• − Management: −$1,989
• − HOA: −$5,736
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable income: $617
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$148
• After-tax cash flow: $2,661/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clark County School District
• NCES district ID: 3200060
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $53,611
• Composite: 26.48/100
• National rank: #7211
• State rank: #11 of 17 in NV

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #2272

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester, NV
• County: Clark County · 2,306,105 people
• City population: 39,883
• Metro: Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
• Population (ZIP): 6,504
• Household income: $53,684
• Rent vs Own: 65.3% rent · 34.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 836.0

Population outlook (Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,504,101 people
• By 2030: 2,693,770 · +7.6%
• By 2040: 3,061,208 · +22.2%
• By 2050: 3,400,072 · +35.8%
• By 2075: 4,139,522 · +65.3%
• By 2100: 4,596,916 · +83.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 14% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 7% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Clark

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.4% · R 47.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+10.7 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.22%
• Current HPI: 180.1607
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.23%
• Metro: Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NV)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Hotels / Casinos	3	$36B

Price history

-99.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $159,900 GLVAR
• 2026-04-09 Listed $164,900 GLVAR
• 2021-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $172,500 Public Records
• 2021-12-03 Sold (MLS) $172,500 GLVAR
• 2021-11-22 Contingent — GLVAR
• 2021-11-11 Relisted — GLVAR
• 2021-10-28 Contingent — GLVAR
• 2021-10-16 Listed $175,000 GLVAR
• 2021-10-09 Listing Removed — GLVAR
• 2021-10-08 Relisted — GLVAR
• 2021-09-03 Listed $174,999 GLVAR
• 2016-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 2016-03-31 Sold (MLS) $64,000 GLVAR
• 2016-03-17 Contingent — GLVAR
• 2015-12-28 Listed $70,000 GLVAR
• 2006-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $196,400 Public Records
• 2004-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $49,000,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $572 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.