417 Kilby Ave · Suffolk, VA 23434

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,062 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1945 6,969 sqft lot $165/sqft · 24% below area Est $217k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home just minutes from downtown! This well-maintained property offers a spacious layout, abundant natural light, and a generously sized yard great for entertaining, relaxing, or future possibilities. Enjoy the convenience of nearby dining, shopping, and local attractions while still having a comfortable retreat to call home. Home is being sold as-is and priced accordingly an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch!

Key facts

• Local attractions
• Nearby dining
• Nearby shopping

Tags

• GENEROUSLY SIZED YARD
• NEARBY DINING
• NEARBY SHOPPING
• LOCAL ATTRACTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (5.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.5% in Suffolk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in VA, #2,896 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A; Watch: crime C-, commute F.
• Suffolk City Public School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #72 of 131 in VA (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 536 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 680 units permitted in Suffolk city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,854 (5.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.11%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,214
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -19.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
711 Brook Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-1%)	2mo	$192,000	$182	81
515 Battery Ave	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+6%)	4mo	$250,000	$223	80
116 Woodrow Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+4%)	2mo	$257,000	$234	73
608 Battery Ave	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,150 (+8%)	2mo	$279,999	$243	73
727 Brook Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-6%)	4mo	$209,000	$209	73
435 Wellons St	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,200 (+13%)	0mo	$284,900	$237	67
731 Brook Ave	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,150 (+8%)	3mo	$279,999	$243	67
729 Brook Ave	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,150 (+8%)	3mo	$279,999	$243	67
208 Wellons St	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,057 (-0%)	3mo	$68,000	$64	66
318 Hunter St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,125 (+6%)	1mo	$175,000	$156	59
627 Spruce St	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,150 (+8%)	3mo	$278,500	$242	55
307 Baker St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+13%)	2mo	$274,900	$229	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-10,266
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $29,063
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23434

• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 536
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,649 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,236/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,384

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $308	-5% $258	+0% $209	+5% $159	+10% $110
Rent	-10% $78	-5% $144	+0% $209	+5% $274	+10% $339
Rate	-1.0pp $297	-0.5pp $253	base $209	+0.5pp $163	+1.0pp $117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
310 Greenfield Cres Suffolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1146	$1,995	$1.74	44d	1	0.38mi
308 Saint James Ave Unit B Suffolk, VA	2.0	1.0	936	$1,295	$1.38	24d	1	0.40mi
410 Bosley Ave Unit B Suffolk, VA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,095	$1.29	11d	1	0.42mi
114 Nancy Dr Suffolk, VA	2.0–3.0	1.0	860	$1,450	$1.69	2d	4	0.56mi
210 Baker St Suffolk, VA	3.0	1.0	988	$1,600	$1.62	44d	1	0.56mi
806 W Washington St Unit 112 Suffolk, VA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	18d	1	0.80mi
181 N Main St Suffolk, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,885	$2.34	2d	15	0.81mi
558 1st Ave Suffolk, VA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,250	$1.25	44d	1	0.81mi
564 1st Ave Suffolk, VA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	44d	1	0.81mi
116 Franklin St Suffolk, VA	3.0	1.0	1335	$1,750	$1.31	24d	1	0.82mi
116 Franklin St Unit 3 Suffolk, VA	3.0	1.0	1335	$1,750	$1.31	44d	1	0.82mi
326 E Washington St Suffolk, VA	2.0	2.0	839	$1,629	$1.94	3d	1	0.86mi
307 Central Ave Suffolk, VA	3.0	1.0	840	$1,700	$2.02	44d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-05-04
   historical Active Under Contract 474-char remark

   Show marketing remark (474 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home just minutes from downtown! This well-maintained property offers a spacious layout, abundant natural light, and a generously sized yard great for entertaining, relaxing, or future possibilities. Enjoy the convenience of nearby dining, shopping, and local attractions while still having a comfortable retreat to call home. Home is being sold as-is and priced accordingly an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch!

2. 2026-04-22
   listed $175,000 Active 474-char remark

   Show marketing remark (474 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home just minutes from downtown! This well-maintained property offers a spacious layout, abundant natural light, and a generously sized yard great for entertaining, relaxing, or future possibilities. Enjoy the convenience of nearby dining, shopping, and local attractions while still having a comfortable retreat to call home. Home is being sold as-is and priced accordingly an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch!

3. 2017-01-05
   price $108,000
4. 2016-11-19
   status Under Contract
5. 2016-11-19
   price $110,000
6. 2016-11-14
   price $99,999
7. 2016-11-07
   price $103,999
8. 2016-10-12
   price $104,999
9. 2016-08-29
   price $110,000
10. 2016-08-02
    price $111,999
11. 2016-07-27
    price $113,999
12. 2016-07-03
    price $116,999
13. 2016-07-03
    status Active
14. 2016-06-26
    historical
15. 2016-06-23
    price $83,999
16. 2016-06-22
    price $109,999
17. 2016-06-22
    price $114,999
18. 2016-06-08
    price $119,999
19. 2016-06-08
    price $124,999
20. 2016-06-08
    status Active
21. 2016-06-01
    historical
22. 2016-05-24
    price $89,999
23. 2016-04-11
    price $93,999
24. 2016-03-17
    price $99,000
25. 2016-03-12
    price $105,000
26. 2016-02-29
    price $109,000
27. 2016-02-09
    listed $115,000 Active
28. 2015-11-22
    historical
29. 2015-06-01
    listed $99,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,236 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,435 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$199/yr (+$17/mo · 16.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,782
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,236
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,583
• − Management: −$1,583
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$387
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$93
• After-tax cash flow: $2,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Suffolk City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103710
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -43.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $65,573
• Composite: 48.31/100
• National rank: #2151
• State rank: #72 of 131 in VA

Livability — Suffolk

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #2896

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living C Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Suffolk, VA
• County: Suffolk City · 88,108 people
• City population: 88,108
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 54,387
• Household income: $79,877
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1934.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,269 people
• By 2030: 98,269 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 103,177 · +8.3%
• By 2050: 105,777 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 110,963 · +16.5%
• By 2100: 103,711 · +8.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 41% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: D (+15.9) · D 57.4% · R 41.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.7pp toward D · 2008: 13.2pp · 2024: 15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.9 2020: D+17.3 2016: D+13.8 2012: D+15.1 2008: D+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.80%
• Current HPI: 158.5866
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.84%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+76.8% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $175,000 REINMLS
• 2017-01-05 Price Changed $108,000 REINMLS
• 2016-11-19 Pending — REINMLS
• 2016-11-19 Price Changed $110,000 REINMLS
• 2016-11-14 Price Changed $99,999 REINMLS
• 2016-11-07 Price Changed $103,999 REINMLS
• 2016-10-12 Price Changed $104,999 REINMLS
• 2016-08-29 Price Changed $110,000 REINMLS
• 2016-08-02 Price Changed $111,999 REINMLS
• 2016-07-27 Price Changed $113,999 REINMLS
• 2016-07-03 Price Changed $116,999 REINMLS
• 2016-07-03 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2016-06-26 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2016-06-23 Price Changed $83,999 REINMLS
• 2016-06-22 Price Changed $109,999 REINMLS
• 2016-06-22 Price Changed $114,999 REINMLS
• 2016-06-08 Price Changed $119,999 REINMLS
• 2016-06-08 Price Changed $124,999 REINMLS
• 2016-06-08 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2016-06-01 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2016-05-24 Price Changed $89,999 REINMLS
• 2016-04-11 Price Changed $93,999 REINMLS
• 2016-03-17 Price Changed $99,000 REINMLS
• 2016-03-12 Price Changed $105,000 REINMLS
• 2016-02-29 Price Changed $109,000 REINMLS
• 2016-02-09 Listed $115,000 REINMLS
• 2015-11-22 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2015-06-01 Listed $99,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,236 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.