5409 Bunche Dr · Jacksonville, FL 32209

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,763 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1956 0.25 ac lot Est $187k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity in an up-and-coming Northside neighborhood! This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers plenty of space and potential, featuring a cozy brick fireplace perfect for relaxing evenings and a large fenced yard ideal for entertaining, pets, or play. Whether you're a first-time buyer or investor, this property provides a solid foundation to make it your own while enjoying the growth and development of the surrounding area.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1956
• Listed 81 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Tax information available
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: 150 Amp electric service; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Property used for residential purposes; Faces east; City street frontage on asphalt road; Approximately 0.25 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfurnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $202 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: George Washington Carver Elementary (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 290 students, 87% FRL); Matthew W. Gilbert Middle School (math 26% / reading 17%, grade F, #553 of 571 statewide, top 97%, 688 students, 86% FRL); William M. Raines High School (math 14% / reading 13%, grade F, #616 of 667 statewide, top 92%, 1,217 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 49% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 399 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,547/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 2921% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.78%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $186,878
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5168 Vernon Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,763 (0%)	12mo	$150,000	$85	67
5505 Sunny Acres Dr E	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,617 (-8%)	17mo	$180,000	$111	62
5334 Mays Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,508 (-14%)	5mo	$143,000	$95	57
5728 Iris Blvd	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (-5%)	5mo	$185,000	$111	56
2817 45th St	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,633 (-7%)	14mo	$225,000	$138	54
5840 Begonia Rd	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,620 (-8%)	13mo	$107,000	$66	51
2610 Wisteria St	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,535 (-13%)	8mo	$45,000	$29	48
5522 Vernon Rd	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,936 (+10%)	15mo	$205,000	$106	44
5822 Begonia Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-15%)	5mo	$185,000	$123	44
2112 W 40th St	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,602 (-9%)	19mo	$78,000	$49	36
5811 Geranium Rd	0.51mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,500 (-15%)	15mo	$114,900	$77	34
5851 Paris Ave	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,519 (-14%)	16mo	$205,000	$135	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-13,250
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,240
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32209

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 399
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,547 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,049/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,291

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $287	-5% $245	+0% $202	+5% $160	+10% $117
Rent	-10% $80	-5% $141	+0% $202	+5% $263	+10% $324
Rate	-1.0pp $278	-0.5pp $240	base $202	+0.5pp $163	+1.0pp $124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2727 W 45th St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	2104	$1,550	$0.74	16d	1	0.20mi
5247 Cleveland Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,775	$0.96	16d	1	0.22mi
5565 Minosa Cir E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1227	$1,400	$1.14	5d	1	0.24mi
5568 Verbena Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	1880	$1,575	$0.84	25d	1	0.32mi
5814 Begonia Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,655	$1.10	25d	1	0.48mi
5821 Begonia Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,155	$0.94	5d	1	0.49mi
5816 Paris Ave Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1701	$1,599	$0.94	25d	1	0.66mi
2693 W 25th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,450	$1.12	25d	1	0.74mi
6188 Pettiford Dr W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,850	$1.23	13d	1	0.94mi
1834 Meharry Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1291	$1,295	$1.00	5d	1	0.94mi
1750 Rutledge Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,358	$1.09	16d	1	1.22mi
1837 W 28th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1333	$1,600	$1.20	25d	1	1.25mi
2818 Palmdale St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	1484	$1,900	$1.28	25d	1	1.32mi
2415 N Canal St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,475	$0.94	20d	1	1.33mi
6412 New Kings Rd Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	18d	1	1.34mi
1744 W 28th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,750	$1.12	25d	1	1.35mi
3004 W 16th St Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,526	$1.05	25d	1	1.39mi
1587 W 30th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1363	$1,450	$1.06	15d	1	1.48mi
1708 W 24th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,250	$0.88	9d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-03-31
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,049 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,049 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,562
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,049
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,485
• − Management: −$1,485
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $27
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7
• After-tax cash flow: $2,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,657
• Household income: $30,514
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2921.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 88% White 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.92%
• Current HPI: 189.5977
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $150,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+22.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,049 · +15.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.