3113 Sparrow Rd · Smyer, TX 79407

$162,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Manufactured public records · 71 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 2.01 ac lot ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful three-bedroom, two-full bath home on 2 acres just across the Hockley County line and only 20 miles from Lubbock, TX. Modern fixtures and accents. Isolated primary suite with double sinks, separate soaking tub and shower, storage, roomy walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms are large with generous closets, and one of the bedrooms has access to the hall bathroom that features double sinks. The kitchen features a dreamy island, shaker style cabinetry, stylish vent hood over the electric range, dishwasher, and pantry. The kitchen also features a serving buffet that opens to a separate dining area, or it can be used as a desk nook, and also opens to the large living area with beamed ceilings. The laundry room features a mud bench, washer/dryer hookup, and extra storage for a second fridge or freezer. All of this on 2 acres with well and septic!

Key facts

• Double sinks
• Dreamy island
• Separate soaking tub

Tags

• ISOLATED PRIMARY SUITE
• DOUBLE SINKS
• SEPARATE SOAKING TUB
• ROOMY WALK-IN CLOSET
• DREAMY ISLAND
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $163k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $190 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $163k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#581 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Smyer ISD (rural): math 49% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #206 of 826 in TX (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Smyer Schools (math 49% / reading 47%, 442 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 613 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Hockley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hockley County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,126 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.99%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-19,173
• Equity at exit: $24,289

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-19,932
• Equity at exit: $14,085

Cash invested: $45,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79407

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 613
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,670 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$854
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,491/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,430

Max offer price $162,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $282	-5% $236	+0% $190	+5% $144	+10% $98
Rent	-10% $58	-5% $124	+0% $190	+5% $256	+10% $322
Rate	-1.0pp $272	-0.5pp $231	base $190	+0.5pp $148	+1.0pp $105

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,725
• Closing costs: $4,887
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $162,900 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $162,900 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $162,900 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $162,900 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $162,900 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $172,900 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $172,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $172,900 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $172,900 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $172,900 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $172,900 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,900 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,900 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,900 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $184,900 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $184,900 863-char remark

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Beautiful three-bedroom, two-full bath home on 2 acres just across the Hockley County line and only 20 miles from Lubbock, TX. Modern fixtures and accents. Isolated primary suite with double sinks, separate soaking tub and shower, storage, roomy walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms are large with generous closets, and one of the bedrooms has access to the hall bathroom that features double sinks. The kitchen features a dreamy island, shaker style cabinetry, stylish vent hood over the electric range, dishwasher, and pantry. The kitchen also features a serving buffet that opens to a separate dining area, or it can be used as a desk nook, and also opens to the large living area with beamed ceilings. The laundry room features a mud bench, washer/dryer hookup, and extra storage for a second fridge or freezer. All of this on 2 acres with well and septic!

17. 2026-04-28
    price $199,900 863-char remark

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Beautiful three-bedroom, two-full bath home on 2 acres just across the Hockley County line and only 20 miles from Lubbock, TX. Modern fixtures and accents. Isolated primary suite with double sinks, separate soaking tub and shower, storage, roomy walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms are large with generous closets, and one of the bedrooms has access to the hall bathroom that features double sinks. The kitchen features a dreamy island, shaker style cabinetry, stylish vent hood over the electric range, dishwasher, and pantry. The kitchen also features a serving buffet that opens to a separate dining area, or it can be used as a desk nook, and also opens to the large living area with beamed ceilings. The laundry room features a mud bench, washer/dryer hookup, and extra storage for a second fridge or freezer. All of this on 2 acres with well and septic!

18. 2026-04-11
    listed $219,000 Active 863-char remark

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Beautiful three-bedroom, two-full bath home on 2 acres just across the Hockley County line and only 20 miles from Lubbock, TX. Modern fixtures and accents. Isolated primary suite with double sinks, separate soaking tub and shower, storage, roomy walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms are large with generous closets, and one of the bedrooms has access to the hall bathroom that features double sinks. The kitchen features a dreamy island, shaker style cabinetry, stylish vent hood over the electric range, dishwasher, and pantry. The kitchen also features a serving buffet that opens to a separate dining area, or it can be used as a desk nook, and also opens to the large living area with beamed ceilings. The laundry room features a mud bench, washer/dryer hookup, and extra storage for a second fridge or freezer. All of this on 2 acres with well and septic!

19. 2025-04-29
    price $225,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,491 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,981 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: +$490/yr (+$41/mo · 19.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,125
• − Property taxes: −$2,491
• − Insurance: −$814
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,604
• − Management: −$1,604
• − Depreciation: −$4,739
• Taxable loss: −$332
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$80
• After-tax cash flow: $2,358/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with modern fixtures and a spacious layout. It is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Replace shutters — Improves home's aesthetic and value
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace shutters — Improves home's aesthetic and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smyer ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840590
• Math proficiency: 49% ▲ 15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $49,331
• Composite: 41.08/100
• National rank: #3574
• State rank: #206 of 826 in TX

Livability — Smyer

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #581
• US rank: #11104

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 602
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $61,509
• Rent vs Own: 52.8% rent · 47.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Hockley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,295 people
• By 2030: 26,230 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 28,268 · +11.8%
• By 2050: 30,536 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 36,867 · +45.7%
• By 2100: 40,662 · +60.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hockley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.3) · D 16.6% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.0pp toward R · 2008: -52.3pp · 2024: -66.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.3 2020: R+62.4 2016: R+62.3 2012: R+57.0 2008: R+52.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.87%
• Current HPI: 229.9895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $184,900 LARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $199,900 LARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $219,000 LARMLS
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $225,000 LARMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,491 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.