2373 Cr 401 · Lake Panasoffkee, FL 33538

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Manufactured public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1966 0.44 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home located in the desirable Idlewild Park area, offering peaceful water views and spacious outdoor living. Situated on 0.44 acres, this property features lake views from the front and a canal along the back of the property, creating a true Old Florida feel. Built in 1966 and thoughtfully cared for, the home offers both a screened-in front porch and a screened-in back porch, where you’ll find the washer, dryer, and laundry tub. Inside, the layout provides two bedrooms separated across the home, offering added privacy. The home includes interior steps to a second level, along with an upgraded ramp for easy access, adding convenience and flexibi

Key facts

• Water views
• Lake views
• Canal access

Tags

• WATER VIEWS
• LAKE VIEWS
• CANAL ACCESS
• SCREENED-IN FRONT PORCH
• SCREENED-IN BACK PORCH
• EAT-IN KITCHEN

🏗️ New construction. The $85,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $58,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $556 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 5.1% in Lake Panasoffkee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#332 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($401 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $85k implies a 750% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.07%
• DSCR: 2.83
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $58,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1986 CR 412	0.32mi	2/1.0	516 (+3%)	10mo	$60,000	$116	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $48,731
• Equity at exit: $32,823

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.19×
• Total profit: $116,755
• Equity at exit: $56,612

Cash invested: $16,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33538

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,187 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $647/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $556

Break-even live

Break-even rent $484

Max offer price $58,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $589	-5% $572	+0% $556	+5% $539	+10% $523
Rent	-10% $462	-5% $509	+0% $556	+5% $603	+10% $650
Rate	-1.0pp $585	-0.5pp $571	base $556	+0.5pp $541	+1.0pp $525

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,500
• Closing costs: $1,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   price $85,000
3. 2026-02-04
   price $99,000
4. 2026-01-21
   listed $109,000 Active
5. 1978-11-01
   soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $647 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $706 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$58/yr (+$5/mo · 9.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,249
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,249
• − Property taxes: −$647
• − Insurance: −$290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,140
• − Management: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$1,687
• Taxable income: $6,096
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,463
• After-tax cash flow: $5,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Panasoffkee

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #5777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Panasoffkee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,748

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.99%
• Current HPI: 329.8431
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+750.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Pending — RACC
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $85,000 RACC
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $99,000 RACC
• 2026-01-21 Listed $109,000 RACC
• 1978-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $647 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.