9949 NW 55th St · Manatee Road, FL 32626

$119,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 966 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1984 0.28 ac lot Est $99k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away on just over a quarter acre in Chiefland's Jemlands community, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home offers a solid foundation for comfortable Florida living at an accessible price point. This home features 966 heated square feet with luxury vinyl and tile flooring throughout, and a layout that makes the most of the space. The home comes equipped with a convection oven, refrigerator, dryer, and washer, and both bedrooms include built-in closets. Central air and heat keep things comfortable year-round, and the property runs on a private well and septic system with all utilities already connected. Outside, you'll find a covered carport, a storage shed, and a screened outdoor entertaining space perfect for gatherings, weekend cookouts, or simply enjoying the natural surroundings. A front porch and rear porch round out the outdoor living options, giving you plenty of ways to take in the fresh Levy County air. Located in Chiefland, you're just minutes from Fowler's Bluff on the Suwannee River, local dining and shopping along US 19/27, and within easy reach of Manatee Springs State Park, one of North Central Florida's most popular natural attractions. Crystal River is roughly 30 minutes south, and Gainesville is about an hour northeast, making this a convenient base for outdoor enthusiasts and those looking for a quieter pace without sacrificing access.

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Private well
• Front porch

Tags

• COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• FRONT PORCH
• REAR PORCH
• PRIVATE WELL
• SEPTIC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is homesteaded; Lot approximately 0.28 acres (dirt road access); One well and one septic on property
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; Home faces south; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Screened porch; Exterior lighting; Shed(s); Other outbuildings

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $641 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 4.8% in Manatee Road — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#815 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Levy (rural): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 199 units permitted in Levy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $826 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Levy County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.00%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $98,532
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9712 NW 58th St	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-4%)	5mo	$93,900	$102	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $21,451
• Equity at exit: $17,818

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $71,134
• Equity at exit: $10,332

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32626

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,728 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $566/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $641

Break-even live

Break-even rent $916

Max offer price $119,500

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,500 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,500 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,500 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,500 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,500 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $119,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $566 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $992 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$426/yr (+$35/mo · 75.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,735
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$566
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,659
• − Management: −$1,659
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable income: $6,084
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,460
• After-tax cash flow: $6,237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Levy
• NCES district ID: 1201140
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,254
• Composite: 36.42/100
• National rank: #4673
• State rank: #54 of 73 in FL

Livability — Manatee Road

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #815
• US rank: #19826

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,994

Population outlook (Levy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,536 people
• By 2030: 34,498 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 30,294 · -17.1%
• By 2050: 26,368 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 19,003 · -48.0%
• By 2100: 13,169 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Levy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.3) · D 24.6% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -50.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.3 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+32.2 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.03%
• Current HPI: 282.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $119,500 DGLMLS
• 2026-06-11 Listed $119,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $566 · +41.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.