21623 Oakwood Meadows Ln · Houston, TX 77449

$267,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 6,050 sqft lot $188/sqft · 6% below area Est $284k · 6% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to a delightful single-story residence nestled in the heart of Katy, TX. This well-maintained home offers 1,420 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, perfect for families or anyone seeking comfort and convenience. Step inside to discover an open-concept floor plan that seamlessly connects the family room and kitchen, creating a warm, inviting atmosphere ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen provides ample counter space and cabinetry, flowing effortlessly into the main living area for a cohesive living experience. Enjoy outdoor living with a backyard patio, perfect for relaxing. 2-car attached garage.

Key facts

• Double sinks
• Walk-in shower
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• DOUBLE SINKS
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Jasmine Heights HOA (managed by Inframark); Annual association fee of $342; Community features include curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces north; Built in 2022; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Covered deck/patio; Patio; Private yard; Fully fenced backyard; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Subdivision lot setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Kitchen island; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Walk-in pantry; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (17 x 14); Additional bedroom on the first floor (12 x 10); Additional bedroom on the first floor (12 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bathroom on the first floor (10 x 9); Other bathroom on the first floor (10 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen island; Tub with shower; Walk-in pantry; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Ventilation
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room on the first floor (7 x 6); Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $268k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-310 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mcroberts El (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 708 students, 77% FRL); T H Mcdonald J H (math 42% / reading 49%, grade D+, #470 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,059 students, 74% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 27% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Katy ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,802 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.96%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,586
• List price: $267,500
• Delta: -4.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5126 Ternberry Forest Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,505 (+6%)	10mo	$277,000	$184	77
21223 Bellaria Summit Trce	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,445 (+2%)	13mo	$265,000	$183	60
5426 Redwood Summit Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,445 (+2%)	7mo	$269,000	$186	58
5211 Greenwood Summit Trl	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+11%)	2mo	$270,000	$172	56
21006 Belmont Village Way	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,525 (+7%)	2mo	$250,000	$164	55
5162 Moonlit Garden Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+11%)	13mo	$285,000	$181	51
21927 Stockbridge Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+5%)	13mo	$234,900	$158	46
5003 Westwood Pines Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,235 (-13%)	2mo	$249,000	$202	45
20819 Dryden Prairie Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+11%)	4mo	$285,000	$180	44
20923 Wedgewood Chase Way	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,530 (+8%)	11mo	$265,000	$173	44
5214 Perkins Ridge Way	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+12%)	12mo	$272,400	$171	40
5610 Providence Green Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,606 (+13%)	8mo	$279,990	$174	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-49,475
• Equity at exit: $61,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-74,547
• Equity at exit: $61,268

Cash invested: $74,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,228 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,403
• Tax from tax record: −$527 /mo · $6,321/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,620

Max offer price $212,802

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-158	-5% $-234	+0% $-310	+5% $-385	+10% $-461
Rent	-10% $-486	-5% $-398	+0% $-310	+5% $-222	+10% $-134
Rate	-1.0pp $-175	-0.5pp $-242	base $-310	+0.5pp $-379	+1.0pp $-449

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,875
• Closing costs: $8,025
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21522 Violet Ridge Rd Katy, TX	3.0	4.0	1597	$2,200	$1.38	45d	1	0.45mi
5107 Jasper Garden Cir Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,825	$1.29	22d	1	0.50mi
21331 Hartford Hollow Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$1,500	$0.82	21d	1	0.79mi
6010 Diantha St Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,856	$1.27	45d	1	1.15mi
21106 Blackbluff Ct Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1865	$1,950	$1.05	7d	1	1.19mi
5523 Dapplewood Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,825	$1.17	1d	1	1.20mi
22614 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,539	$1.36	14d	1	1.33mi
22616 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,539	$1.36	17d	1	1.33mi
22617 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,279	$1.56	45d	1	1.34mi
22615 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	1.34mi
22613 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,569	$1.37	45d	1	1.34mi
22611 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	1.34mi
3837 Banks Ridge Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,350	$1.42	45d	1	1.35mi
22627 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,239	$1.53	7d	1	1.36mi
22622 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,569	$1.37	45d	1	1.36mi
22624 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	1.36mi
22629 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,239	$1.53	7d	1	1.36mi
3819 Banks Ridge Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$2,050	$1.56	45d	1	1.37mi
22712 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,179	$1.49	26d	1	1.38mi
22716 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,439	$1.31	7d	1	1.39mi
22718 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,439	$1.30	7d	1	1.39mi
22728 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,369	$1.42	26d	1	1.40mi
22713 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,419	$1.45	14d	1	1.40mi
21919 Clay Rd Unit 3047 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,235	$1.39	12d	1	1.40mi
21919 Clay Rd Unit 21976 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,484	$1.36	0d	1	1.40mi
21919 Clay Rd Unit 21952 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,184	$1.36	0d	1	1.40mi
21919 Clay Rd Unit 424 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,500	$1.38	7d	1	1.40mi
22738 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,539	$1.36	21d	1	1.42mi
22737 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,649	$1.41	45d	1	1.43mi
22743 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	3.0	1200	$2,309	$1.92	45d	1	1.45mi
21919 Clay Rd Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1658	$3,574	$2.16	0d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $267,500 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on marketlisting id $267,500 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $267,500 Coming Soon 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $267,500 Coming Soon 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $269,900 Active 383 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $269,900 Active 382 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $269,900 Active 381 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $269,900 Active 380 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $269,900 Active 379 DOM
10. 2026-02-08
    price $269,900 999-char remark
11. 2026-01-16
    price $272,500 999-char remark
12. 2025-12-03
    price $274,900 999-char remark
13. 2025-11-13
    price $280,000 999-char remark
14. 2025-10-27
    price $283,000 999-char remark
15. 2025-10-15
    price $285,500 999-char remark
16. 2025-09-11
    price $287,500 999-char remark
17. 2025-06-22
    price $289,900 999-char remark
18. 2025-05-17
    listed $292,500 Active 999-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,321 · $527/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,321 · $527/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,984
• − Property taxes: −$6,321
• − Insurance: −$1,338
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,139
• − Management: −$2,139
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$7,782
• Taxable loss: −$8,311
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,995
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home in Katy, TX is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It offers a good ROI with minor cosmetic updates that can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage to the exterior of the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage to the exterior of the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $267,500 HARMLS
• 2026-06-17 Coming Soon $267,500 HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $272,500 HARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $274,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $283,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $285,500 HARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $287,500 HARMLS
• 2025-06-22 Price Changed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-17 Listed $292,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+101.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,321 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.