26923 Graybill Ct · Houston, TX 77447

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2011 5,349 sqft lot $116/sqft · 23% below area Est $291k · 23% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Hockley, this home offers quiet country living on a cul-de-sac with a peaceful setting. The spacious kitchen features a breakfast area and overlooks a large living room with vaulted ceilings, creating a comfortable and functional layout. A bonus room provides flexibility for a dining area, home office, or additional living space. The primary suite includes double sinks and French doors that open to a covered patio, perfect for enjoying your morning coffee. Additional features include a separate laundry room. The seller recently installed new flooring and carpet, giving the home a fresh updated feel.

Key facts

• Quiet country living
• Spacious kitchen
• Large living room

Tags

• QUIET COUNTRY LIVING
• CUL-DE-SAC
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST AREA
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• VAULTED CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-245 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (2.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1791 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,706 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.67%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,742
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -22.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26923 Graybill Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,936 (0%)	0mo	$225,000	$116	100
28947 Rustic Robin Ln	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,908 (-1%)	5mo	$337,990	$177	81
16263 Rock Hollow Bend Ln	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,860 (-4%)	4mo	$317,925	$171	73
27222 Grass Cliff Ln	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,908 (-1%)	3mo	$339,990	$178	73
16343 Rock Hollow Bend Ln	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,860 (-4%)	2mo	$299,925	$161	72
27407 Rolling Bluestem Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,901 (-2%)	2mo	$359,925	$189	70
27122 Texas Wildrye Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,743 (-10%)	0mo	$324,900	$186	67
16338 Rock Hollow Bend Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,760 (-9%)	3mo	$320,000	$182	66
27326 Scarlet Paint Brush Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,722 (-11%)	1mo	$299,900	$174	65
27338 Scarlet Paint Brush Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,785 (-8%)	1mo	$344,900	$193	63
27415 Rolling Bluestem Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	2,097 (+8%)	2mo	$377,925	$180	59
27214 Scarlet Paint Brush Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,735 (-10%)	0mo	$319,925	$184	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-58,189
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -53.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-94,366
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1791
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,188 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$675 /mo · $8,095/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,498

Max offer price $181,706

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-118	-5% $-181	+0% $-245	+5% $-309	+10% $-372
Rent	-10% $-418	-5% $-331	+0% $-245	+5% $-159	+10% $-72
Rate	-1.0pp $-132	-0.5pp $-188	base $-245	+0.5pp $-303	+1.0pp $-363

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 626-char remark

   Show marketing remark (626 chars)

   Located in Hockley, this home offers quiet country living on a cul-de-sac with a peaceful setting. The spacious kitchen features a breakfast area and overlooks a large living room with vaulted ceilings, creating a comfortable and functional layout. A bonus room provides flexibility for a dining area, home office, or additional living space. The primary suite includes double sinks and French doors that open to a covered patio, perfect for enjoying your morning coffee. Additional features include a separate laundry room. The seller recently installed new flooring and carpet, giving the home a fresh updated feel.

2. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 626-char remark

   Show marketing remark (626 chars)

   Located in Hockley, this home offers quiet country living on a cul-de-sac with a peaceful setting. The spacious kitchen features a breakfast area and overlooks a large living room with vaulted ceilings, creating a comfortable and functional layout. A bonus room provides flexibility for a dining area, home office, or additional living space. The primary suite includes double sinks and French doors that open to a covered patio, perfect for enjoying your morning coffee. Additional features include a separate laundry room. The seller recently installed new flooring and carpet, giving the home a fresh updated feel.

3. 2026-04-07
   price $225,000 626-char remark

   Show marketing remark (626 chars)

   Located in Hockley, this home offers quiet country living on a cul-de-sac with a peaceful setting. The spacious kitchen features a breakfast area and overlooks a large living room with vaulted ceilings, creating a comfortable and functional layout. A bonus room provides flexibility for a dining area, home office, or additional living space. The primary suite includes double sinks and French doors that open to a covered patio, perfect for enjoying your morning coffee. Additional features include a separate laundry room. The seller recently installed new flooring and carpet, giving the home a fresh updated feel.

4. 2026-03-20
   listed $215,000 Active 626-char remark

   Show marketing remark (626 chars)

   Located in Hockley, this home offers quiet country living on a cul-de-sac with a peaceful setting. The spacious kitchen features a breakfast area and overlooks a large living room with vaulted ceilings, creating a comfortable and functional layout. A bonus room provides flexibility for a dining area, home office, or additional living space. The primary suite includes double sinks and French doors that open to a covered patio, perfect for enjoying your morning coffee. Additional features include a separate laundry room. The seller recently installed new flooring and carpet, giving the home a fresh updated feel.

5. 2026-02-25
   soldstatus
6. 2011-10-14
   historical
7. 2011-07-14
   listed $136,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,095 · $675/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,095 · $675/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,251
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$8,095
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,100
• − Management: −$2,100
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$6,618
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,588
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+64.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-10-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-07-14 Listed $136,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+30.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,095 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.