6554 Greeley Hill Rd #10 · Greeley Hill, CA 95311

$29,995

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1997

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks

This place can make a wonderful home for the ones who love camping, solitude, fishing, hiking. .. It's only 26 miles from Yosemite National Park. This is a "Fixer-Upper" to the one who would like a deal. .. Here it is!

Key facts

• Listed 29 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed upon approval; Located in Yosemite Terrace Estates

Exterior

• Parking: Parking spaces available
• Utilities: Septic tank and public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Single-wide; Faces south; 960 square feet
• Construction: Metal construction
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Front yard; Back yard; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (street level)
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with shower-over-tub and window
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Sun porch; Main entry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $738 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $30k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 40/100 on livability (#1,392 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mariposa County Unified (rural): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #282 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 89 units permitted in Mariposa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $727 of equity ($207 loan paydown + $520 appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Mariposa County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,545 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 105.39%
• DSCR: 5.69
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.79×
• Total profit: $48,629
• Equity at exit: $11,402

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.08×
• Total profit: $109,850
• Equity at exit: $16,096

Cash invested: $8,399 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95311

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,158 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$7 /mo · $86/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $738

Break-even live

Break-even rent $224

Max offer price $29,995

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,499
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $29,995 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,995 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,995 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,995 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,995 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $29,995 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,995 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $29,995 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,995 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $29,995 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,995 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $29,995 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $29,995 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,995 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,995 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,995 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $29,995 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-20
    listed $29,995 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $86 · $7/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $228 · $19/mo
• Expected delta: +$142/yr (+$12/mo · 164.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 44 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,892
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$86
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,111
• − Management: −$1,111
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $8,880
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,131
• After-tax cash flow: $6,720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mariposa County Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623940
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,669
• Composite: 29.75/100
• National rank: #6438
• State rank: #282 of 517 in CA

Livability — Greeley Hill

• Score: 40/100
• State rank: #1392
• US rank: #27320

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Greeley Hill, CA
• City population: 2,282
• Population (ZIP): 2,282

Population outlook (Mariposa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,956 people
• By 2030: 15,078 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 13,413 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 12,232 · -23.3%
• By 2075: 11,143 · -30.2%
• By 2100: 10,187 · -36.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Lithuanian 2% Estonian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Mariposa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.1% · R 59.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -12.4pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+18.1 2016: R+23.2 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+12.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.73%
• Current HPI: 151.1386
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $29,995 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2020): $86 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.