3936 State Route 488 · Shortsville, NY 14424

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1973 2.20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming mobile home sits on 2.2 beautiful acres in the countryside and features a picturesque creek running through the property. 3 bed, 1 bath, with two decently sized decks off the front and back, selling AS IS. Enjoy the serenity of nature right outside your door, with plenty of space for gardening, recreation, pets, or simply relaxing and taking in the views. The property offers a perfect blend of open space and natural beauty, making it an ideal retreat from the hustle and bustle of town. Located less than 10 minutes from Canandaigua, it's just a short drive to everything you could need!

Key facts

• Ideal retreat
• Space for gardening
• 2.2 acres

Tags

• 2.2 ACRES
• PICTURESQUE CREEK
• TWO DECKS
• SPACE FOR GARDENING
• NATURAL BEAUTY
• IDEAL RETREAT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; One garage space
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; Single-story; Existing property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Above-ground pool; Gravel driveway; Propane tank (leased); River and stream access; Agricultural / irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Window cooling units
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Kitchen island; Bedroom on main level; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $527 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#288 in NY, #4,639 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Canandaigua City School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #305 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.5%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 284 units permitted in Ontario County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ontario County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $145,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.56%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $20,250
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.64×
• Total profit: $107,273
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14424

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,927 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $527

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,261

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 605-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   listed $145,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,100 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,275 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$175/yr (+$15/mo · 8.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,850
• − Management: −$1,850
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $4,259
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,022
• After-tax cash flow: $5,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canandaigua City School District
• NCES district ID: 3606330
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $56,375
• Composite: 47.09/100
• National rank: #2335
• State rank: #305 of 590 in NY

Livability — Shortsville

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #288
• US rank: #4639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ontario County · 58,989 people
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 28,786
• Household income: $79,778
• Rent vs Own: 34.8% rent · 65.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 737.0

Population outlook (Ontario County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,230 people
• By 2030: 111,401 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 109,535 · -1.5%
• By 2050: 104,895 · -5.7%
• By 2075: 92,999 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 73,723 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ontario

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.4% · R 50.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.0pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -1.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.2 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.6 2012: R+1.6 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.94%
• Current HPI: 263.755
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.46%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $145,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+12.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,100 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.