16520 Pine Ln · Killian, LA 70462

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

Built 1987 Fair condition $135/sqft · at area comps Est $133k · at est. ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to the quiet of Springfield living with this beautiful 2-acre property features an older single-wide mobile home ready for a little TLC. Whether you choose to restore the current home or start fresh, the land itself is the true highlight with beautiful trees- offering space, privacy and endless possibilities! Perfect canvas for your dream home or weekend retreat. Never flooded!

Key facts

• Privacy
• Never flooded
• 2 acre property

Tags

• 2 ACRE PROPERTY
• BEAUTIFUL TREES
• PRIVACY
• WEEKEND RETREAT
• NEVER FLOODED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.2% in Killian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#333 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 214 active listings in the ZIP; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.73%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,537
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: 1.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17286 Cypress Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+14%)	5mo	$155,000	$136	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $87,043
• Equity at exit: $121,619

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.50×
• Total profit: $245,758
• Equity at exit: $262,275

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70462

• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,449 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $305	-5% $259	+0% $212	+5% $165	+10% $119
Rent	-10% $97	-5% $155	+0% $212	+5% $269	+10% $326
Rate	-1.0pp $280	-0.5pp $246	base $212	+0.5pp $177	+1.0pp $141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $135,000 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Escape to the quiet of Springfield living with this beautiful 2-acre property features an older single-wide mobile home ready for a little TLC. Whether you choose to restore the current home or start fresh, the land itself is the true highlight with beautiful trees- offering space, privacy and endless possibilities! Perfect canvas for your dream home or weekend retreat. Never flooded!

17. 2026-05-18
    price $135,000 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Escape to the quiet of Springfield living with this beautiful 2-acre property features an older single-wide mobile home ready for a little TLC. Whether you choose to restore the current home or start fresh, the land itself is the true highlight with beautiful trees- offering space, privacy and endless possibilities! Perfect canvas for your dream home or weekend retreat. Never flooded!

18. 2026-04-03
    listed $154,000 Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Escape to the quiet of Springfield living with this beautiful 2-acre property features an older single-wide mobile home ready for a little TLC. Whether you choose to restore the current home or start fresh, the land itself is the true highlight with beautiful trees- offering space, privacy and endless possibilities! Perfect canvas for your dream home or weekend retreat. Never flooded!

19. 2026-04-03
    listed $154,000 Active 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Escape to the quiet of Springfield living with this beautiful 2-acre property features an older single-wide mobile home ready for a little TLC. Whether you choose to restore the current home or start fresh, the land itself is the true highlight with beautiful trees- offering space, privacy and endless possibilities! Perfect canvas for your dream home or weekend retreat. Never flooded!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 62% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,390
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,391
• − Management: −$1,391
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $419
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$100
• After-tax cash flow: $2,443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This older single-wide mobile home requires significant exterior repairs and maintenance, including painting, roof repair, and landscaping. With these updates, the property can be transformed into a move-in-ready home with increased resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be in fair condition, but further inspection is needed to determine if it requires replacement or repair.
• Major exterior siding — The siding looks weathered and may need repainting or replacement.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping is sparse and overgrown, indicating a lack of maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Painting the exterior can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value for both resale and rental.
• Both repair roof — A repaired roof will prevent further water damage and improve the home's overall condition, enhancing its value.
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained and landscaped yard can significantly increase the home's curb appeal and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof appears to be in fair condition, but further inspection is needed to determine if it requires replacement or repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The siding looks weathered and may need repainting or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping is sparse and overgrown, indicating a lack of maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Painting the exterior can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both repair roof — A repaired roof will prevent further water damage and improve the home's overall condition, enhancing its value. ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained and landscaped yard can significantly increase the home's curb appeal and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Killian

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #22333

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Killian, LA
• Population (ZIP): 5,428

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 115.93%
• Current HPI: 389.85
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-12.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $135,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $135,000 GSREIN
• 2026-04-03 Listed $154,000 GSREIN
• 2026-04-03 Listed $154,000 AcadianaMLS