818 E 1st St · Salem, MO 65560

$24,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Other public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1939 5,296 sqft lot ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your next investment! This cozy bungalow style home features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom all on one level. The property is on a corner lot just under a tenth of an acre. This home is ready for your personal touches! Don't miss this one, schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 5,296 sq ft lot
• Built 1939
• Listed 89 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $24k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($550 rent vs $24k).
• Recommended offer: $23k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.4% vs local median 2.7% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#157 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B; Watch: amenities C-, schools D-, commute F.
• Salem R-80 (town): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #253 of 324 in MO (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3 units permitted in Dent County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($166 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Dent County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($23k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $22,560 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.28%
• DSCR: 3.24
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $24,376
• Equity at exit: $14,569

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.60×
• Total profit: $57,798
• Equity at exit: $25,983

Cash invested: $6,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65560

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$126
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $205/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$116
• Net cashflow: $282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $194

Max offer price $24,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,000
• Closing costs: $720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
401 W Rolla St Unit B Salem, MO	1.0	1.0	500	$550	$1.10	44d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-16
   price $24,000 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   Welcome to your next investment! This cozy bungalow style home features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom all on one level. The property is on a corner lot just under a tenth of an acre. This home is ready for your personal touches! Don't miss this one, schedule your showing today!

2. 2026-02-27
   listed $29,900 Active 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   Welcome to your next investment! This cozy bungalow style home features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom all on one level. The property is on a corner lot just under a tenth of an acre. This home is ready for your personal touches! Don't miss this one, schedule your showing today!

3. 2026-02-25
   historical $29,900 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   Welcome to your next investment! This cozy bungalow style home features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom all on one level. The property is on a corner lot just under a tenth of an acre. This home is ready for your personal touches! Don't miss this one, schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $205 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $233 · $19/mo
• Expected delta: +$28/yr (+$2/mo · 13.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $6,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,344
• − Property taxes: −$205
• − Insurance: −$120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$528
• − Management: −$528
• − Depreciation: −$698
• Taxable income: $3,177
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$762
• After-tax cash flow: $2,617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem R-80
• NCES district ID: 2927090
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $32,306
• Composite: 26.94/100
• National rank: #7082
• State rank: #253 of 324 in MO

Livability — Salem

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #157
• US rank: #8725

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, MO
• Population (ZIP): 13,634

Population outlook (Dent County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,149 people
• By 2030: 14,734 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 13,862 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 12,959 · -14.5%
• By 2075: 11,217 · -26.0%
• By 2100: 9,399 · -38.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China

Political lean MEDSL · Dent

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.2) · D 14.4% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.8pp · 2024: -70.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.2 2020: R+69.0 2016: R+68.2 2012: R+49.6 2008: R+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.66%
• Current HPI: 238.9175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-19.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $24,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Listed $29,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Coming Soon $29,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $205 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.