130 Allen · St. Johnsville, NY 13452

$52,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1920 1.10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Endless Possibilities Await! This spacious two-story home offers four bedrooms and one full bath, situated just outside of town in a phenomenal location. While it's in need of updates and TLC, the potential is undeniable! Featuring a slate roof, a nice yard for outdoor enjoyment, and a layout with plenty of room to make it your own, this property is perfect for those looking to invest, renovate, or create their dream home. Don't miss the chance to transform this diamond in the rough into something truly special!

Key facts

• Slate roof
• 1.1 acre lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• SLATE ROOF
• SPACIOUS TWO-STORY HOME
• LAYOUT WITH PLENTY OF ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $53k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $670 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $53k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Oppenheim-Ephratah-St. Johnsville CSD (rural): math 30% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #522 of 590 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($366 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $52,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.25%
• DSCR: 3.41
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $71,517
• Equity at exit: $47,657

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.9%
• Equity multiple: 12.96×
• Total profit: $177,187
• Equity at exit: $102,773

Cash invested: $14,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13452

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,390 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$277
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,550/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $543

Max offer price $52,900

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,225
• Closing costs: $1,587
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2025-04-17
   listed $52,900 Active
3. 2019-12-25
   historical
4. 2019-05-10
   listed $138,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,550 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,550 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,682
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,963
• − Property taxes: −$1,550
• − Insurance: −$264
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,335
• − Management: −$1,335
• − Depreciation: −$1,539
• Taxable income: $7,696
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,847
• After-tax cash flow: $6,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oppenheim-Ephratah-St. Johnsville CSD
• NCES district ID: 3601107
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,730
• Composite: 34.25/100
• National rank: #5253
• State rank: #522 of 590 in NY

Livability — St. Johnsville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,850

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,132 people
• By 2030: 49,114 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 44,373 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 39,321 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 28,503 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 19,268 · -62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 32.1% · R 67.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+31.4 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.23%
• Current HPI: 342.6782
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-61.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-21 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-04-17 Listed $52,900 Global MLS
• 2019-12-25 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2019-05-10 Listed $138,500 CNYIS

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,550 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.