4295 Mallard Pl SE · Rochester, MN 55904

$126,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,124 sqft · Townhouse public records

Built 2004 1,350 sqft lot $195/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Easy living in this well maintained multi-level 2 bedroom townhome located in a quiet neighborhood close to trails, parks, college and the bus line. Open great room with vaulted ceilings; deck off dining; large master walk-in closet; pass through bath with separate shower and tub. Lower level ready to finish off adding family room/3rd bedroom and 2nd bath rough-in option in laundry area. Association fee takes care of the exterior for you. Why rent when you can own? Property in First Homes Community Land Trust--call for details.

Key facts

• $195 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2004

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $126k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $126k).
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 3.5% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#1 in MN, #27 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Rochester Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #152 of 301 in MN (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewood Elementary (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #368 of 857 statewide, top 47%, 308 students, 29% FRL); Mayo Senior High (math 42% / reading 65%, grade C-, #104 of 471 statewide, top 22%, 1,862 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 149 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,267 units permitted in Olmsted County in 2024 (915 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $871 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Olmsted County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $104k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $126,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.33%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $6,712
• Equity at exit: $18,787

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $36,467
• Equity at exit: $10,894

Cash invested: $35,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55904

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,920 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$661
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,894/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$195
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,349

Max offer price $126,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,500
• Closing costs: $3,780
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4400 Red Hawk Dr SE Rochester, MN	3.0	2.5	1398	$2,200	$1.57	13d	2	0.18mi
1155 Felty Ave SE Rochester, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$1,927	$1.91	13d	25	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $195 · $2,340/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-23
   historical
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $126,000
3. 2020-11-06
   soldstatus $104,000
4. 2020-11-06
   soldstatus $104,000
5. 2020-10-30
   soldstatus $104,000 Sold 533-char remark

   Show marketing remark (533 chars)

   Easy living in this well maintained multi-level 2 bedroom townhome located in a quiet neighborhood close to trails, parks, college and the bus line. Open great room with vaulted ceilings; deck off dining; large master walk-in closet; pass through bath with separate shower and tub. Lower level ready to finish off adding family room/3rd bedroom and 2nd bath rough-in option in laundry area. Association fee takes care of the exterior for you. Why rent when you can own? Property in First Homes Community Land Trust--call for details.

6. 2020-09-24
   status Pending 533-char remark

   Show marketing remark (533 chars)

   Easy living in this well maintained multi-level 2 bedroom townhome located in a quiet neighborhood close to trails, parks, college and the bus line. Open great room with vaulted ceilings; deck off dining; large master walk-in closet; pass through bath with separate shower and tub. Lower level ready to finish off adding family room/3rd bedroom and 2nd bath rough-in option in laundry area. Association fee takes care of the exterior for you. Why rent when you can own? Property in First Homes Community Land Trust--call for details.

7. 2020-09-23
   listed $104,000 Active 533-char remark

   Show marketing remark (533 chars)

   Easy living in this well maintained multi-level 2 bedroom townhome located in a quiet neighborhood close to trails, parks, college and the bus line. Open great room with vaulted ceilings; deck off dining; large master walk-in closet; pass through bath with separate shower and tub. Lower level ready to finish off adding family room/3rd bedroom and 2nd bath rough-in option in laundry area. Association fee takes care of the exterior for you. Why rent when you can own? Property in First Homes Community Land Trust--call for details.

8. 2018-12-10
   historical
9. 2010-01-18
   listed $102,900
10. 2010-01-18
    listed $102,900
11. 2005-10-18
    soldstatus $97,800
12. 2005-09-27
    soldstatus $137,500
13. 2004-10-04
    listed $137,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,894 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,894 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,058
• − Property taxes: −$1,894
• − Insurance: −$630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,843
• − Management: −$1,843
• − HOA: −$2,340
• − Depreciation: −$3,665
• Taxable income: $3,766
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$904
• After-tax cash flow: $4,504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2731800
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,540
• Composite: 40.6/100
• National rank: #3695
• State rank: #152 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 92/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #27

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, MN
• County: Olmsted County · 135,035 people
• City population: 135,035
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• Population (ZIP): 29,639
• Household income: $77,016
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 864.0

Population outlook (Olmsted County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,999 people
• By 2030: 172,425 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 183,785 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 192,981 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 215,284 · +29.7%
• By 2100: 224,887 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Olmsted

• 2024 margin: D (+10.7) · D 54.3% · R 43.6% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 10.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.7 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+0.8 2012: D+3.2 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.04%
• Current HPI: 267.168
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-8.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $126,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-30 Sold (MLS) $104,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-24 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-23 Listed $104,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-10 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-18 Listed $102,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-18 Listed $102,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $97,800 Public Records
• 2005-09-27 Sold (MLS) $137,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-04 Listed $137,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,894 · -18.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.