106 Ellis Mills Rd · Fifth Ward, LA 71341

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,964 sqft · SingleFamily · 410 Days on market

Built 1960 1.09 ac lot ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2-Bedroom Ranch-Style Home with Outdoor Kitchen, Sunroom & 3-Car Garage Welcome to this inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home, full of character and settled on a beautiful lot with a shaded front yard. Mature trees provide a park-like setting, making this home the perfect blend of comfort and classic charm. Inside, you'll find a spacious living room, a bright and functional kitchen, a cozy sunroom perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation, and a dedicated home office ideal for remote work or hobbies. Both bedrooms are generously sized, and the two full bathrooms offer convenience for family or guests. Outside to the backyard oasis featuring a fully equipped outdo

Key facts

• Backyard oasis
• Sunroom
• Outdoor kitchen

Tags

• OUTDOOR KITCHEN
• SUNROOM
• HOME OFFICE
• BACKYARD OASIS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property location bounded north by Hwy 1 and south by Hwy 115
• HOA & community: Acreage / rural setting

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Metal roof; Wood siding
• Exterior features: Outdoor kitchen; Barn(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Outdoor kitchen (exterior) — note: main kitchen listed under interior
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window unit(s) for cooling; Has heating (type listed as Other)
• Interior features: Includes bedroom, kitchen, and living room; Refrigerator included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#242 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Avoyelles Parish (rural): math 22% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #56 of 98 in LA (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Avoyelles Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Avoyelles County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 410 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 410 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.38%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $24,027
• Equity at exit: $52,791

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $71,354
• Equity at exit: $82,209

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71341

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $624/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $890

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 410 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 409 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 408 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 407 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 406 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 404 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 403 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 401 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 400 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 399 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 398 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 394 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 393 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 392 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 391 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 390 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    status Active
18. 2026-02-16
    price $115,000
19. 2026-01-16
    price $125,000
20. 2025-07-15
    price $135,000
21. 2025-05-02
    listed $138,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $624 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $632 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$9/yr (+$1/mo · 1.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,871
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$624
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,030
• − Management: −$1,030
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$174
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$42
• After-tax cash flow: $1,774/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Avoyelles Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200150
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -29.00%
• Median HH income: $33,891
• Composite: 21.32/100
• National rank: #8378
• State rank: #56 of 98 in LA

Livability — Fifth Ward

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #242
• US rank: #18395

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,901

Population outlook (Avoyelles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,084 people
• By 2030: 37,784 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 35,049 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 32,225 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 25,695 · -34.3%
• By 2100: 18,985 · -51.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 26% Iranian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 14% Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Avoyelles

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 27.8% · R 71.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.1pp toward R · 2008: -23.1pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+40.8 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+23.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Current HPI: 113.6662
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $115,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $125,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $135,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-05-02 Listed $138,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $624 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.