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538 Venetian Palms Blvd
C- Composite 50.19
Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +11.8/30.0
  • Schools +5.1/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Rent growth +3.9/5.0
  • 1% rule +3.5/10.0
  • DSCR +3.5/10.0
  • Livability +3.5/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$323,000

538 Venetian Palms Blvd · New Smyrna Beach, FL 32168
3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,779 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market
Built 2022 Good condition 4,265 sqft lot 2-car garage $182/sqft · 19% below area Est $398k · 19% under $66/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 38% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

JUST REDUCED! Own one of the lowest-priced single-family homes in Venetian Bay. Built in 2022, like-new condition. The property is located in Flood Zone A. The seller has obtained an approximate insurance quote of 65/month as of April 2026. Buyers should verify all coverage requirements and costs with their lender and insurance provider. Immaculate single-family home in Venetian Bay, priced to sell! Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home offering 1,779 square feet of comfortable living in the highly desirable New Smyrna Beach community of Venetian Bay.

Key facts

  • Covered patio
  • Walk in closet
  • 4,265 sq ft lot

Tags

STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCESWALK IN CLOSETCOVERED PATIO

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $323k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-217 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (11.9% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (14.9% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $275k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.8% in New Smyrna Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 69/100 on livability (#474 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
  • Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Chisholm Elementary School (math 72% / reading 63%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 491 students, 47% FRL); New Smyrna Beach Middle School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 1,037 students, 53% FRL); New Smyrna Beach High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 1,810 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 786 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($313k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
  • Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $274,859 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
  4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.85%
Cap rate
5.95%
Cash-on-cash
-1.21%
DSCR
0.95
GRM
9.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$398,000
List price
$323,000
Delta
-18.84%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
11 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
553 Venetian Palms Blvd 0.04mi 3/2.5 1,916 (+8%) 1mo $389,000 $203 84
3451 Poneta Ave 0.36mi 3/2.0 1,754 (-1%) 1mo $398,000 $227 78
3015 Portofino Blvd 0.23mi 3/2.0 1,986 (+12%) 0mo $600,000 $302 68
287 Caryota Ct 0.48mi 3/2.0 1,653 (-7%) 1mo $363,000 $220 63
3322 Modena Way 0.65mi 3/2.0 1,916 (+8%) 0mo $550,000 $287 54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-18.0%
Equity multiple
0.35×
Total profit
$-58,631
Equity at exit
$48,160
10-year hold
IRR
-5.5%
Equity multiple
0.60×
Total profit
$-36,345
Equity at exit
$27,927

Cash invested: $90,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
32 active · 28 under contract
Months of supply
19.2 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$387,000 ($227/sqft)
Median days on market
57 d
This list price
25% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-1.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32168

Home prices YoY
-27.0%
Rents YoY
5.6%
Active inventory
786
Price-to-rent
9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,749 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,694
Tax from tax record
$369 /mo · $4,422/yr
Insurance
$135
Flood insurance flood zone
−$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
HOA
$66
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$577
Net cashflow
$-217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,023
Max offer price $284,708
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-34 -5% $-125 +0% $-217 +5% $-308 +10% $-400
Rent -10% $-434 -5% $-325 +0% $-217 +5% $-108 +10% $0
Rate -1.0pp $-54 -0.5pp $-135 base $-217 +0.5pp $-300 +1.0pp $-386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$80,750
Closing costs
$9,690
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 13 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
524 Venetian Palms Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL 3.0 2.5 2070 $2,700 $1.30 119d 1 0.07mi
3130 Meleto Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL 3.0 2.5 1916 $3,200 $1.67 6d 1 0.11mi
426 Venetian Palms Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL 3.0 2.5 1758 $2,300 $1.31 119d 1 0.14mi
3036 Meleto Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL 3.0 2.5 1672 $3,000 $1.79 119d 1 0.16mi
409 Venetian Palms Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL 3.0 3.0 1778 $2,300 $1.29 6d 1 0.18mi
3062 Isles Way New Smyrna Beach, FL 4.0 2.5 2092 $3,400 $1.63 5d 1 0.36mi
326 Caryota Ct New Smyrna Beach, FL 3.0 2.0 2508 $2,495 $0.99 5d 1 0.39mi
419 Luna Bella Ln New Smyrna Beach, FL 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1061 $2,599 $2.45 0d 28 0.45mi
3109 King Palm Dr New Smyrna Beach, FL 3.0 2.0 1519 $2,099 $1.38 78d 1 0.47mi
3451 Medici Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL 4.0 3.5 2372 $2,800 $1.18 110d 1 0.51mi
424 Luna Bella Ln #424 New Smyrna Beach, FL 2.0 2.0 1575 $2,200 $1.40 62d 1 0.53mi
3069 Borassus Dr New Smyrna Beach, FL 3.0 2.0 1709 $3,650 $2.14 6d 1 0.65mi
434 Luna Bella Ln New Smyrna Beach, FL 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1006 $2,563 $2.55 2d 28 0.72mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Not in subdivision
Financial info
Lease restrictions apply
HOA & community
Association fee: $800 (annual)

Exterior

Parking
DrivewayAttached 2-car garage
Security
Owned security system
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableNatural gas availableWater available
Home design
Single family residenceTwo levelsFaces northeast
Construction
Block and stucco constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt on 0.1 acre lot
Exterior features
Other exterior features

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherMicrowave
Bedrooms
3 bedrooms
Flooring
CarpetTile
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling
Central heatingHeat pumpCentral air conditioning
Interior features
Eat-in kitchenLiving room/dining room comboStone countersSecurity system (owned)
Laundry & utility
Laundry: Other

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-24
    days on market $323,000 Active 38 DOM
  2. 2026-09-23
    days on market $323,000 Active 37 DOM
  3. 2026-09-22
    days on market $323,000 Active 36 DOM
  4. 2026-09-21
    days on market $323,000 Active 35 DOM
  5. 2026-09-20
    days on market $323,000 Active 34 DOM
  6. 2026-09-19
    days on market $323,000 Active 33 DOM
  7. 2026-09-18
    days on market $323,000 Active 32 DOM
  8. 2026-09-17
    days on market $323,000 Active 31 DOM
  9. 2026-09-16
    days on market $323,000 Active 30 DOM
  10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $323,000 Active 29 DOM
  11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $323,000 Active 28 DOM
  12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $323,000 Active 27 DOM
  13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $323,000 Active 26 DOM
  14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $323,000 Active 25 DOM
  15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $323,000 Active 19 DOM
  16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $323,000 Active 18 DOM
  17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $323,000 Active 17 DOM
  18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $323,000 Active 14 DOM
  19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $323,000 Active 13 DOM
  20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $323,000 Active 12 DOM
  21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $323,000 Active 11 DOM
  22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $323,000 Active 10 DOM
  23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $323,000 Active 9 DOM
  24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $323,000 Active 8 DOM
  25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $323,000 Active 7 DOM
  26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $323,000 Active 6 DOM
  27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $323,000 Active 5 DOM
  28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $323,000 Active 4 DOM
  29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $323,000 Active 3 DOM
  30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $323,000 Active 2 DOM
  31. 2026-08-17
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $323,000 Active 1 DOM
  32. 2026-06-05
    statusdays on market $319,000 Pending 79 DOM
  33. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,000 Active 78 DOM
  34. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,000 Active 77 DOM
  35. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,000 Active 76 DOM
  36. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,000 Active 75 DOM
  37. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,000 Active 74 DOM
  38. 2026-05-13
    price $319,000 2118-char remark
  39. 2026-05-12
    price $319,000 2135-char remark
  40. 2026-04-27
    price $324,000 2118-char remark
  41. 2026-04-27
    price $324,000 2135-char remark
  42. 2026-04-17
    price $329,900 2118-char remark
  43. 2026-04-17
    price $329,900 2135-char remark
  44. 2026-03-17
    listed $334,000 Active 2118-char remark
  45. 2026-03-17
    listed $334,000 Active 2135-char remark
  46. 2022-10-06
    soldstatus $357,410 Closed
  47. 2022-10-06
    soldstatus $357,410 Closed
  48. 2022-10-06
    soldstatus $357,410 Closed
  49. 2022-10-06
    soldstatus $357,410
  50. 2022-06-15
    status Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$4,422 · $369/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$4,422 · $369/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$32,983
− Mortgage interest
−$18,093
− Property taxes
−$4,422
− Insurance
−$3,118
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,639
− Management
−$2,639
− HOA
−$792
− Depreciation
−$9,396
Taxable loss
−$8,115
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,948
After-tax cash flow
$-654/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in Venetian Bay is in excellent condition and ready for immediate occupancy. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on the desirable location and low asking price.

Value-add opportunities

  • Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
  • Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring can increase both resale and rental value
  • Both Install smart home automation — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more attractive to buyers and renters
D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Chisholm Elementary School B+ FL #435/2,144 Nat'l #4,272/41,679 Middle New Smyrna Beach Middle School D- FL #331/571 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High New Smyrna Beach High School F FL #255/667 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Volusia
NCES district ID
1201920
Math proficiency
44% ▼ -9.00%
Reading proficiency
49% ▼ -3.00%
Median HH income
$42,946
Composite
39.2/100
National rank
#4019
State rank
#47 of 73 in FL
C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — New Smyrna Beach

Score
69/100
State rank
#474
US rank
#8577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
New Smyrna Beach, FL
County
Volusia County · 572,749 people
City population
42,039
Metro
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
Population (ZIP)
31,847
Household income
$77,083
Rent vs Own
23.3% rent · 76.7% own
Severe rent burden
14% of renters

Population outlook (Volusia County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
572,749 people
By 2030
598,695 · +4.5%
By 2040
644,880 · +12.6%
By 2050
681,451 · +19.0%
By 2075
759,957 · +32.7%
By 2100
778,902 · +36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (85%)
Race & ethnicity
White 85% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5% Two or more races 4%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry
Romanian 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
Foreign-born
5% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home
93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Volusia

2024 margin
Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.7% · R 60.5%
2008→2024 swing
-27.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.7pp · 2024: -21.8pp
All cycles
2024: R+21.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+1.2 2008: D+5.7

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-38.5% since first listed
25 events — show timeline
  • 2026-08-17 Listed $323,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-06-04 Pending Daytona MLS
  • 2026-06-04 Pending Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-06-03 Listing Removed Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-06-03 Listing Removed Daytona MLS
  • 2026-05-13 Price Changed $319,000 Daytona MLS
  • 2026-05-12 Price Changed Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-04-27 Price Changed $324,000 Daytona MLS
  • 2026-04-27 Price Changed Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-04-17 Price Changed $329,900 Daytona MLS
  • 2026-04-17 Price Changed Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-03-17 Listed $334,000 Daytona MLS
  • 2026-03-17 Listed Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2022-10-06 Sold (MLS) $357,410 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2022-10-06 Sold (MLS) $357,410 NSBMLS
  • 2022-10-06 Sold (MLS) $357,410 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2022-10-06 Sold (MLS) $357,410 Daytona MLS
  • 2022-06-15 Pending Daytona MLS
  • 2022-06-15 Contingent NSBMLS
  • 2022-06-15 Pending Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2022-06-10 Listed $357,410 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2022-06-10 Listed $357,410 NSBMLS
  • 2022-06-10 Listed $357,410 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2022-06-10 Listed $357,410 Daytona MLS
  • 2022-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $525,195 Public Records

Property tax history

+233.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,422 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…