538 Venetian Palms Blvd · New Smyrna Beach, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- A
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $1,009 – $1,996
Fire risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 106°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 19 days/yr
Wind risk 10/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- Cash flow +11.8/30.0
- Schools +5.1/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Rent growth +3.9/5.0
- 1% rule +3.5/10.0
- DSCR +3.5/10.0
- Livability +3.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$323,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
JUST REDUCED! Own one of the lowest-priced single-family homes in Venetian Bay. Built in 2022, like-new condition. The property is located in Flood Zone A. The seller has obtained an approximate insurance quote of 65/month as of April 2026. Buyers should verify all coverage requirements and costs with their lender and insurance provider. Immaculate single-family home in Venetian Bay, priced to sell! Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home offering 1,779 square feet of comfortable living in the highly desirable New Smyrna Beach community of Venetian Bay.
Key facts
- Covered patio
- Walk in closet
- 4,265 sq ft lot
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $323k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-217 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (11.9% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (14.9% below list).
- Recommended offer: $275k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.8% in New Smyrna Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 69/100 on livability (#474 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
- Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Chisholm Elementary School (math 72% / reading 63%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 491 students, 47% FRL); New Smyrna Beach Middle School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 1,037 students, 53% FRL); New Smyrna Beach High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 1,810 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 786 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($313k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
- Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.85% ✗
- Cap rate
- 5.95%
- Cash-on-cash
- -1.21%
- DSCR
- 0.95
- GRM
- 9.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $398,000
- List price
- $323,000
- Delta
- -18.84%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 11 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 553 Venetian Palms Blvd | 0.04mi | 3/2.5 | 1,916 (+8%) | 1mo | $389,000 | $203 | 84 |
| 3451 Poneta Ave | 0.36mi | 3/2.0 | 1,754 (-1%) | 1mo | $398,000 | $227 | 78 |
| 3015 Portofino Blvd | 0.23mi | 3/2.0 | 1,986 (+12%) | 0mo | $600,000 | $302 | 68 |
| 287 Caryota Ct | 0.48mi | 3/2.0 | 1,653 (-7%) | 1mo | $363,000 | $220 | 63 |
| 3322 Modena Way | 0.65mi | 3/2.0 | 1,916 (+8%) | 0mo | $550,000 | $287 | 54 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -18.0%
- Equity multiple
- 0.35×
- Total profit
- $-58,631
- Equity at exit
- $48,160
- IRR
- -5.5%
- Equity multiple
- 0.60×
- Total profit
- $-36,345
- Equity at exit
- $27,927
Cash invested: $90,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 32 active · 28 under contract
- Months of supply
- 19.2 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $387,000 ($227/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 57 d
- This list price
- 25% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- -1.3% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 32168
- Home prices YoY
- -27.0%
- Rents YoY
- 5.6%
- Active inventory
- 786
- Price-to-rent
- 9.8×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,749 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,694
- Tax from tax record
- −$369 /mo · $4,422/yr
- Insurance
- −$135
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
- HOA
- −$66
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$577
- Net cashflow
- $-217
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-34 | -5% $-125 | +0% $-217 | +5% $-308 | +10% $-400 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-434 | -5% $-325 | +0% $-217 | +5% $-108 | +10% $0 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-54 | -0.5pp $-135 | base $-217 | +0.5pp $-300 | +1.0pp $-386 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $80,750
- Closing costs
- $9,690
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 13 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 524 Venetian Palms Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2070 | $2,700 | $1.30 | 119d | 1 | 0.07mi |
| 3130 Meleto Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1916 | $3,200 | $1.67 | 6d | 1 | 0.11mi |
| 426 Venetian Palms Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1758 | $2,300 | $1.31 | 119d | 1 | 0.14mi |
| 3036 Meleto Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1672 | $3,000 | $1.79 | 119d | 1 | 0.16mi |
| 409 Venetian Palms Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1778 | $2,300 | $1.29 | 6d | 1 | 0.18mi |
| 3062 Isles Way New Smyrna Beach, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2092 | $3,400 | $1.63 | 5d | 1 | 0.36mi |
| 326 Caryota Ct New Smyrna Beach, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2508 | $2,495 | $0.99 | 5d | 1 | 0.39mi |
| 419 Luna Bella Ln New Smyrna Beach, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1061 | $2,599 | $2.45 | 0d | 28 | 0.45mi |
| 3109 King Palm Dr New Smyrna Beach, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1519 | $2,099 | $1.38 | 78d | 1 | 0.47mi |
| 3451 Medici Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2372 | $2,800 | $1.18 | 110d | 1 | 0.51mi |
| 424 Luna Bella Ln #424 New Smyrna Beach, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1575 | $2,200 | $1.40 | 62d | 1 | 0.53mi |
| 3069 Borassus Dr New Smyrna Beach, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1709 | $3,650 | $2.14 | 6d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 434 Luna Bella Ln New Smyrna Beach, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1006 | $2,563 | $2.55 | 2d | 28 | 0.72mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Not in subdivision
- Financial info
- Lease restrictions apply
- HOA & community
- Association fee: $800 (annual)
Exterior
- Parking
- DrivewayAttached 2-car garage
- Security
- Owned security system
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableNatural gas availableWater available
- Home design
- Single family residenceTwo levelsFaces northeast
- Construction
- Block and stucco constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt on 0.1 acre lot
- Exterior features
- Other exterior features
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherMicrowave
- Bedrooms
- 3 bedrooms
- Flooring
- CarpetTile
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Central heatingHeat pumpCentral air conditioning
- Interior features
- Eat-in kitchenLiving room/dining room comboStone countersSecurity system (owned)
- Laundry & utility
- Laundry: Other
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-24days on market $323,000 Active 38 DOM
-
2026-09-23days on market $323,000 Active 37 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $323,000 Active 36 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $323,000 Active 35 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $323,000 Active 34 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $323,000 Active 33 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $323,000 Active 32 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $323,000 Active 31 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $323,000 Active 30 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $323,000 Active 29 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $323,000 Active 28 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $323,000 Active 27 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $323,000 Active 26 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $323,000 Active 25 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $323,000 Active 19 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $323,000 Active 18 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $323,000 Active 17 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $323,000 Active 14 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $323,000 Active 13 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $323,000 Active 12 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $323,000 Active 11 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $323,000 Active 10 DOM
-
2026-08-26days on market $323,000 Active 9 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $323,000 Active 8 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $323,000 Active 7 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $323,000 Active 6 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $323,000 Active 5 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $323,000 Active 4 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $323,000 Active 3 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $323,000 Active 2 DOM
-
2026-08-17pricestatusdays on market $323,000 Active 1 DOM
-
2026-06-05statusdays on market $319,000 Pending 79 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $319,000 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $319,000 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $319,000 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $319,000 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $319,000 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-05-13price $319,000 2118-char remark
-
2026-05-12price $319,000 2135-char remark
-
2026-04-27price $324,000 2118-char remark
-
2026-04-27price $324,000 2135-char remark
-
2026-04-17price $329,900 2118-char remark
-
2026-04-17price $329,900 2135-char remark
-
2026-03-17$334,000 Active 2118-char remark
-
2026-03-17$334,000 Active 2135-char remark
-
2022-10-06soldstatus $357,410 Closed
-
2022-10-06soldstatus $357,410 Closed
-
2022-10-06soldstatus $357,410 Closed
-
2022-10-06soldstatus $357,410
-
2022-06-15status Pending
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $4,422 · $369/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $4,422 · $369/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 5/10 Major
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $32,983
- − Mortgage interest
- −$18,093
- − Property taxes
- −$4,422
- − Insurance
- −$3,118
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,639
- − Management
- −$2,639
- − HOA
- −$792
- − Depreciation
- −$9,396
- Taxable loss
- −$8,115
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,948
- After-tax cash flow
- $-654/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This well-maintained single-family home in Venetian Bay is in excellent condition and ready for immediate occupancy. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on the desirable location and low asking price.
Value-add opportunities
- Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
- Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring can increase both resale and rental value ↑
- Both Install smart home automation — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more attractive to buyers and renters ↑
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Volusia
- NCES district ID
- 1201920
- Math proficiency
- 44% ▼ -9.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 49% ▼ -3.00%
- Median HH income
- $42,946
- Composite
- 39.2/100
- National rank
- #4019
- State rank
- #47 of 73 in FL
Livability — New Smyrna Beach
- Score
- 69/100
- State rank
- #474
- US rank
- #8577
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- New Smyrna Beach, FL
- County
- Volusia County · 572,749 people
- City population
- 42,039
- Metro
- Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 31,847
- Household income
- $77,083
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 14% of renters
Population outlook (Volusia County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 572,749 people
- By 2030
- 598,695 · +4.5%
- By 2040
- 644,880 · +12.6%
- By 2050
- 681,451 · +19.0%
- By 2075
- 759,957 · +32.7%
- By 2100
- 778,902 · +36.0%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (85%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 85% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5% Two or more races 4%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 5% · Canada, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Volusia
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.7% · R 60.5%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -27.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.7pp · 2024: -21.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+1.2 2008: D+5.7
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -129.58%
- Current HPI
- 350.4259
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 5.60%
- Metro
- Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
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Price history
-38.5% since first listed25 events — show timeline
- 2026-08-17 Listed $323,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-06-04 Pending — Daytona MLS
- 2026-06-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-06-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-06-03 Listing Removed — Daytona MLS
- 2026-05-13 Price Changed $319,000 Daytona MLS
- 2026-05-12 Price Changed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-04-27 Price Changed $324,000 Daytona MLS
- 2026-04-27 Price Changed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-04-17 Price Changed $329,900 Daytona MLS
- 2026-04-17 Price Changed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-03-17 Listed $334,000 Daytona MLS
- 2026-03-17 Listed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2022-10-06 Sold (MLS) $357,410 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2022-10-06 Sold (MLS) $357,410 NSBMLS
- 2022-10-06 Sold (MLS) $357,410 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2022-10-06 Sold (MLS) $357,410 Daytona MLS
- 2022-06-15 Pending — Daytona MLS
- 2022-06-15 Contingent — NSBMLS
- 2022-06-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2022-06-10 Listed $357,410 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2022-06-10 Listed $357,410 NSBMLS
- 2022-06-10 Listed $357,410 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2022-06-10 Listed $357,410 Daytona MLS
- 2022-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $525,195 Public Records
Property tax history
+233.9%/yrLatest (2025): $4,422 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…