13418 Fenwick Stream Dr · Balm, FL 33598

$317,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,555 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks

This single-story home optimizes space and prioritizes ease of living. An open concept design includes the family room and dining room as well as the kitchen with a center island to promote seamless transitions between activities. An attached patio provides outdoor space. Nearby is the cozy owner's suite with a private bathroom and spacious walk-in closet, while two bedrooms are located down the hall.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open concept design
• Private bathroom

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• ATTACHED PATIO
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home (Dover plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1555

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Dover plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $317k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#742 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wimauma Elementary School (math 31% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 543 students, 81% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 689 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $264,025 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-57,226
• Equity at exit: $56,647

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-80,727
• Equity at exit: $43,727

Cash invested: $88,872 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 689
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,664
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$397 /mo · $4,761/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,777

Max offer price $301,818

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $2	+0% $-108	+5% $-217	+10% $-327
Rent	-10% $-316	-5% $-212	+0% $-108	+5% $-3	+10% $101
Rate	-1.0pp $52	-0.5pp $-27	base $-108	+0.5pp $-190	+1.0pp $-274

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,350
• Closing costs: $9,522
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15007 Coltman Hill Pl Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	1924	$2,550	$1.33	26d	1	0.13mi
13181 Garnet Raspberry Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,500	$1.29	26d	1	0.72mi
13095 Calcite Blue Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,300	$1.19	19d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $317,400 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $317,400 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $317,400 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $315,200 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $315,100 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   remarks 404-char remark
7. 2026-06-02
   listed $315,100 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,779
• − Property taxes: −$4,761
• − Insurance: −$1,587
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,535
• − Management: −$2,535
• − Depreciation: −$9,233
• Taxable loss: −$6,747
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,619
• After-tax cash flow: $327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It requires minor cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and reflects well on the home.
• Resale Replace carpet in living areas — Fresh carpet improves aesthetics and comfort.
• Rental Service HVAC system — Ensures the system is running efficiently and quietly, attracting renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and reflects well on the home. ↑
• Resale Replace carpet in living areas — Fresh carpet improves aesthetics and comfort. ↑
• Rental Service HVAC system — Ensures the system is running efficiently and quietly, attracting renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Balm

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #742
• US rank: #16016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Balm, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 196
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 149.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B