349 Butz Ln · Emerald Lakes, PA 18355

$245,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,312 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 2003 0.46 ac lot Est $306k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this lovely split-level home that blends charm and functionality with a thoughtful layout. Nuzzled near the beautiful scenic Emerald Lakes community just minutes away from Camelback Water Park and Ski resort, this home is brimming with potential! This residence offers a unique floor plan, and a cozy atmoshere that let's the home's character shine through. On the first level there is an open entry foyer area where you have a half bath and a bonus room. Just a few steps down and you're in the generous size, carpeted, finished basement. Then head up to the second level into a spacious livingroom with a big stone fireplace. This home also includes a large eat-in kitchen/dinning room.

Key facts

• Big stone fireplace
• Finished basement
• Spacious deck

Tags

• EMERALD LAKES COMMUNITY
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• BIG STONE FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS DECK
• SLIDING DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $628 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $245k).
• Recommended offer: $223k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.0% in Emerald Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#974 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $222,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.99%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,696
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
163 Granite Rd	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,340 (+2%)	10mo	$180,000	$134	64
215 Granite Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+2%)	11mo	$320,000	$238	63
144 Island Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+4%)	10mo	$265,000	$194	56
195 Overland Dr	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,308 (-0%)	20mo	$305,000	$233	52
300 Cedar Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-12%)	10mo	$401,000	$347	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $50,606
• Equity at exit: $89,966

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $149,325
• Equity at exit: $124,611

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18355

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,972 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$333 /mo · $3,991/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $628

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,177

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-02-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-09
   price $245,000
3. 2026-01-13
   price $299,900
4. 2025-11-21
   price $329,900
5. 2025-10-23
   listed $349,900 Active
6. 2006-07-05
   soldstatus $240,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,991 · $333/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,991 · $333/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,991
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,853
• − Management: −$2,853
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable income: $3,889
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$933
• After-tax cash flow: $6,606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Emerald Lakes

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #974
• US rank: #10662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,628

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Asian 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 3% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Armenian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Vietnamese 6% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Current HPI: 191.1566
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+2.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $245,000 PMAR
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $299,900 PMAR
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $329,900 PMAR
• 2025-10-23 Listed $349,900 PMAR
• 2006-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,991 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.