719 W Karnes Dr · Robinson, TX 76706

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,390 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1974 0.27 ac lot $155/sqft · 15% below area Est $253k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers flexibility and value, making it ideal for investors, Baylor University students, first-time buyers, or those looking to downsize. Situated on a spacious 0.27-acre corner lot with mature trees, the property provides plenty of shade, privacy, and curb appeal—all less than 10 minutes from Baylor University. Inside, you’ll find hardwood flooring in the living area and kitchen, creating a warm, low-maintenance space. The galley-style kitchen features a glass cooktop and built-in oven, offering both function and efficiency. The layout works well for roommates, small families, or anyone seeking a manageable, comfortable home. Step outside to a large

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Galley-style kitchen
• Glass cooktop

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• MATURE TREES
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• GALLEY-STYLE KITCHEN
• GLASS COOKTOP
• BUILT-IN OVEN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two covered garage spaces (garage faces side); Additional paved driveway parking for a total of four parking spaces; Single garage door
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; High-speed internet available; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces southeast; Resale property; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and masonry construction; Composition/shingle roof; Built according to public records
• Exterior features: Rear covered porch; Front covered porch; Patio; Shed(s)/storage; No exterior steps; Chain link fence in back yard; Back yard; Corner lot; Front yard; Level lot with medium-size trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Disposal; Vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters; No interior steps; Vinyl window frames
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.2% in Robinson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#349 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Robinson ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #179 of 826 in TX (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Robinson Pri (387 students, 48% FRL); Robinson Int (math 54% / reading 44%, grade C-, #378 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 539 students, 42% FRL); Robinson H S (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 696 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,728/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 3883% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,751 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.01%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,231
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -15.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
717 Dogwood St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+2%)	17mo	$229,900	$163	80
209 W Billington Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,393 (+0%)	8mo	$269,900	$194	68
1005 Dayton Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-6%)	2mo	$205,000	$158	67
1004 N Old Robinson Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+6%)	16mo	$199,900	$136	60
900 N Bunker Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,399 (+1%)	15mo	$235,000	$168	59
814 Dogwood St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+13%)	18mo	$315,000	$200	55
209 W Karnes Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,555 (+12%)	1mo	$289,250	$186	50
307 W Billington Dr	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,219 (-12%)	9mo	$199,000	$163	43
638 Christina Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+7%)	24mo	$312,900	$211	42
904 N Bunker Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+10%)	18mo	$260,000	$170	40
201 W Tinsley Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,190 (-14%)	11mo	$235,000	$197	39
224 Durie Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,585 (+14%)	23mo	$255,000	$161	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-43,213
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-53,708
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76706

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,728 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,983/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,855

Max offer price $197,171

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $21	-5% $-40	+0% $-101	+5% $-162	+10% $-223
Rent	-10% $-237	-5% $-169	+0% $-101	+5% $-33	+10% $36
Rate	-1.0pp $7	-0.5pp $-46	base $-101	+0.5pp $-157	+1.0pp $-213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 Bentwood Dr Robinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1021	$1,650	$1.62	15d	1	1.07mi
3001 S New Rd Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,645	$1.86	15d	15	1.24mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $215,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $230,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $230,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-05-05
    listed $230,000 Active 1045-char remark
14. 1993-06-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,983 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,934 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$951/yr (+$79/mo · 31.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,983
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,658
• − Management: −$1,658
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$4,943
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,186
• After-tax cash flow: $-25/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Robinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837410
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $69,096
• Composite: 42.95/100
• National rank: #3113
• State rank: #179 of 826 in TX

Livability — Robinson

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #7658

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Robinson, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 40,668
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,627
• Household income: $41,656
• Rent vs Own: 61.0% rent · 39.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3883.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 15% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.31%
• Current HPI: 230.2557
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.86%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,983 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.