15858 Aspen Dr · Montgomery, TX 77356

$218,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,432 sqft · Land · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 5,500 sqft lot $3/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy nature and the great outdoors in a peaceful setting on this corner lot in a lake neighborhood that is surrounded by Sam Houston National Forest. Ready for you to build your dream home or perfect spot for a weekend home near the lakes. Hidden Forest Estates has a community swimming pool and lake for residents. Located near Lake Conroe between Historic Montgomery and Willis area with many local dining options, shopping, entertainment and water activities just around the corner. Small town feel, yet so close to Conroe and The Woodlands. Great low tax rate and no flooding. 4 other interior lots available. Don't miss this opportunity for country lifestyle with city amenities nearby.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Walk-in closet
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS SUNLIT FAMILY ROOM
• KITCHEN AND DINING COMBO
• EXPANSIVE PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Hidden Forest CIA association; Annual association fee of $36 covering common areas; Community amenities include lake/pond, pool, and trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached oversized garage (1 car); Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Aerobic septic / septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2026
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Builder: AmeriTrend Homes
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Porch; Patio; Private yard; Fenced backyard; Corner lot; Subdivision setting; Side yard; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Free-standing range; Microwave; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 14' x 15.5'); Bedroom on second floor (approx. 11.5' x 10.5'); Bedroom on second floor (approx. 11.5' x 12.5')
• Flooring: Concrete; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Primary bathroom on first floor (approx. 11' x 5'5")
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Granite counters; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room; Bath in primary bedroom; Tub with shower; Ceiling fan(s); Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Utility room on first floor (approx. 5'6" x 6'); Breakfast nook (approx. 9' x 9')

🏗️ New construction. The $218,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $198,188.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $218k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (7.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1056 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,276 (7.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.70%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,188
• List price: $218,000
• Delta: 10.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-24,132
• Equity at exit: $29,550

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-25,846
• Equity at exit: $17,136

Cash invested: $55,493 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1056
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,013 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,039
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$248 /mo · $2,973/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,738

Max offer price $198,188

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,547
• Closing costs: $5,946
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20278 Willow Ln Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,850	$1.66	13d	1	0.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $218,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $218,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $218,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $218,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $218,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $218,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $218,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $218,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $218,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $218,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $218,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $218,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $218,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $218,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    historical
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $218,000 Active 1012-char remark
17. 2026-02-26
    listed $235,000 Active
18. 2024-12-06
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    Enjoy nature and the great outdoors in a peaceful setting on this corner lot in a lake neighborhood that is surrounded by Sam Houston National Forest. Ready for you to build your dream home or perfect spot for a weekend home near the lakes. Hidden Forest Estates has a community swimming pool and lake for residents. Located near Lake Conroe between Historic Montgomery and Willis area with many local dining options, shopping, entertainment and water activities just around the corner. Small town feel, yet so close to Conroe and The Woodlands. Great low tax rate and no flooding. 4 other interior lots available. Don't miss this opportunity for country lifestyle with city amenities nearby.

19. 2024-10-12
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    Enjoy nature and the great outdoors in a peaceful setting on this corner lot in a lake neighborhood that is surrounded by Sam Houston National Forest. Ready for you to build your dream home or perfect spot for a weekend home near the lakes. Hidden Forest Estates has a community swimming pool and lake for residents. Located near Lake Conroe between Historic Montgomery and Willis area with many local dining options, shopping, entertainment and water activities just around the corner. Small town feel, yet so close to Conroe and The Woodlands. Great low tax rate and no flooding. 4 other interior lots available. Don't miss this opportunity for country lifestyle with city amenities nearby.

20. 2024-10-06
    listed $30,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    Enjoy nature and the great outdoors in a peaceful setting on this corner lot in a lake neighborhood that is surrounded by Sam Houston National Forest. Ready for you to build your dream home or perfect spot for a weekend home near the lakes. Hidden Forest Estates has a community swimming pool and lake for residents. Located near Lake Conroe between Historic Montgomery and Willis area with many local dining options, shopping, entertainment and water activities just around the corner. Small town feel, yet so close to Conroe and The Woodlands. Great low tax rate and no flooding. 4 other interior lots available. Don't miss this opportunity for country lifestyle with city amenities nearby.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,102
• − Property taxes: −$2,973
• − Insurance: −$991
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,932
• − Management: −$1,932
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$5,765
• Taxable loss: −$578
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$139
• After-tax cash flow: $2,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+626.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $218,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-10-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-10-06 Listed $30,000 HARMLS