Flagstone Plan · Estero, FL 33928

$424,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,518 sqft · SingleFamily · 228 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bright, open, and inviting, the Flagstone features a welcoming foyer with an adjacent flex room or den, leading into a spacious gathering room. The kitchen is thoughtfully placed at the back of the home, connecting to dining and outdoor living areas. A private owner's suite with a walk-in closet completes this smartly designed single-story plan.

Key facts

• Outdoor living areas
• Gathering room
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• WELCOMING FOYER
• FLEX ROOM
• GATHERING ROOM
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OUTDOOR LIVING AREAS

🏗️ New construction. The $424,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $446,735.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $982 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $425k).
• Recommended offer: $374k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.2% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewoods Elementary School (math 81% / reading 74%, grade A, #163 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 1,089 students, 25% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 57% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 879 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 82d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,152/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $373,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.42%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $446,735
• List price: $424,990
• Delta: -4.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20549 Pebble Glen Dr	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,405 (-7%)	0mo	$415,000	$295	62
20060 Kingmont Dr	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,650 (+9%)	0mo	$380,000	$230	60
20590 Pebble Glen Dr	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,405 (-7%)	6mo	$437,000	$311	55
20506 Pebble Glen Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,405 (-7%)	17mo	$415,000	$295	54
19536 Hinkley Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,417 (-7%)	2mo	$370,000	$261	53
20564 Pebble Glen Dr	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,405 (-7%)	11mo	$440,000	$313	53
20593 Pebble Glen Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (+9%)	0mo	$415,000	$252	52
18297 Ridgeline Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,677 (+10%)	12mo	$445,000	$265	50
19528 Hinkley Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,564 (+3%)	17mo	$350,000	$224	47
19532 Hinkley Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,417 (-7%)	19mo	$349,999	$247	39
20604 Pebble Glen Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+9%)	22mo	$439,735	$266	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-24,840
• Equity at exit: $66,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $911
• Equity at exit: $38,625

Cash invested: $125,086 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 30.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $468,494 ($287/sqft)
• Median days on market: 80 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 879
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,152 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,343
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$558 /mo · $6,701/yr
• Insurance: −$186
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,082
• Net cashflow: $982

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,908

Max offer price $446,735

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,291	-5% $1,137	+0% $982	+5% $828	+10% $674
Rent	-10% $575	-5% $779	+0% $982	+5% $1,186	+10% $1,389
Rate	-1.0pp $1,207	-0.5pp $1,096	base $982	+0.5pp $867	+1.0pp $749

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,684
• Closing costs: $13,402
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18400 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$6,500	$2.95	9d	1	0.03mi
20419 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2088	$6,490	$3.11	119d	1	0.20mi
20274 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1657	$7,000	$4.22	7d	1	0.26mi
20285 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2133	$6,200	$2.91	119d	1	0.29mi
20047 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$9,000	$4.09	98d	1	0.32mi
19278 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2201	$3,395	$1.54	98d	1	0.33mi
20015 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$8,000	$3.63	119d	1	0.39mi
18315 Ridgeline Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,750	$1.70	111d	1	0.40mi
18282 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2126	$10,000	$4.70	65d	1	0.41mi
18282 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2126	$10,500	$4.94	0d	1	0.41mi
20024 Hartford Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2081	$6,950	$3.34	119d	1	0.42mi
20514 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1670	$5,700	$3.41	119d	1	0.46mi
19226 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$3,150	$1.90	87d	1	0.47mi
19218 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$3,000	$1.81	110d	1	0.48mi
20530 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2099	$5,950	$2.83	65d	1	0.50mi
19095 Hanley Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2127	$6,000	$2.82	9d	1	0.61mi
19592 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,800	$1.79	9d	1	0.71mi
19617 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,995	$1.91	65d	1	0.74mi
19232 Gentry Pl Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,800	$1.73	119d	1	0.86mi
19708 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,800	$1.79	65d	1	0.90mi
19728 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,800	$1.79	9d	1	0.94mi
19749 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,800	$1.79	7d	1	0.98mi
19712 Deming Ln Miromar Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	2091	$8,500	$4.07	82d	1	0.98mi
19712 Deming Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2091	$6,500	$3.11	9d	1	0.98mi
19828 The Pl Blvd Miromar Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$4,000	$2.16	92d	1	1.09mi
19565 Deming Ln Miromar Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$3,800	$2.05	82d	1	1.20mi
19584 Utopia Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2032	$3,500	$1.72	9d	1	1.21mi
19563 Utopia Ln Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2010	$3,450	$1.72	5d	1	1.25mi
19527 Utopia Ln Miromar Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$4,000	$2.16	82d	1	1.33mi
19824 Beechcrest Pl Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$7,000	$3.18	119d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $399,990Address: Estero, FL 33928

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction planModel/plan: Flagstone
• Exterior features: Living area of 1518 (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)Plan name: Flagstone

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $424,990 Active 228 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $424,990 Active 227 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $424,990 Active 226 DOM
4. 2026-09-17
   days on market $424,990 Active 222 DOM
5. 2026-09-13
   days on market $424,990 Active 218 DOM
6. 2026-09-13
   days on market $424,990 Active 217 DOM
7. 2026-09-11
   days on market $424,990 Active 216 DOM
8. 2026-09-05
   days on market $424,990 Active 210 DOM
9. 2026-09-04
   days on market $424,990 Active 209 DOM
10. 2026-08-31
    days on market $424,990 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-08-28
    days on market $424,990 Active 202 DOM
12. 2026-08-26
    days on market $424,990 Active 200 DOM
13. 2026-08-24
    days on market $424,990 Active 198 DOM
14. 2026-08-23
    days on market $424,990 Active 197 DOM
15. 2026-08-21
    days on market $424,990 Active 195 DOM
16. 2026-08-20
    days on market $424,990 Active 194 DOM
17. 2026-08-19
    days on market $424,990 Active 193 DOM
18. 2026-08-18
    days on market $424,990 Active 192 DOM
19. 2026-08-16
    days on market $424,990 Active 190 DOM
20. 2026-08-15
    days on market $424,990 Active 189 DOM
21. 2026-08-13
    days on market $424,990 Active 187 DOM
22. 2026-08-09
    pricedays on market $424,990 Active 183 DOM
23. 2026-08-06
    days on market $412,990 Active 180 DOM
24. 2026-08-05
    pricedays on market $412,990 Active 179 DOM
25. 2026-07-26
    days on market $406,990 Active 169 DOM
26. 2026-07-24
    days on market $406,990 Active 167 DOM
27. 2026-07-23
    days on market $406,990 Active 166 DOM
28. 2026-07-22
    days on market $406,990 Active 165 DOM
29. 2026-07-21
    days on market $406,990 Active 164 DOM
30. 2026-07-18
    days on market $406,990 Active 161 DOM
31. 2026-07-18
    days on market $406,990 Active 160 DOM
32. 2026-07-16
    days on market $406,990 Active 159 DOM
33. 2026-07-15
    days on market $406,990 Active 158 DOM
34. 2026-07-14
    price $406,990 Active 156 DOM
35. 2026-07-13
    days on market $399,990 Active 156 DOM
36. 2026-07-13
    days on market $399,990 Active 155 DOM
37. 2026-07-12
    days on market $399,990 Active 154 DOM
38. 2026-07-10
    days on market $399,990 Active 153 DOM
39. 2026-07-10
    days on market $399,990 Active 152 DOM
40. 2026-07-07
    days on market $399,990 Active 150 DOM
41. 2026-07-06
    days on market $399,990 Active 149 DOM
42. 2026-07-05
    days on market $399,990 Active 148 DOM
43. 2026-07-02
    days on market $399,990 Active 145 DOM
44. 2026-07-01
    days on market $399,990 Active 144 DOM
45. 2026-06-30
    days on market $399,990 Active 143 DOM
46. 2026-06-29
    days on market $399,990 Active 142 DOM
47. 2026-06-28
    days on market $399,990 Active 141 DOM
48. 2026-06-25
    days on market $399,990 Active 137 DOM
49. 2026-06-22
    days on market $399,990 Active 134 DOM
50. 2026-06-17
    days on market $399,990 Active 130 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,818
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,024
• − Property taxes: −$6,701
• − Insurance: −$2,234
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,945
• − Management: −$4,945
• − Depreciation: −$12,996
• Taxable income: $4,972
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,193
• After-tax cash flow: $10,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a bright, open floor plan and is move-in ready. Consider painting the exterior and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve the home's appearance and value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 59/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Rayma C. Page Elementary School A FL #281/2,144 Nat'l #2,730/41,679 Middle Lexington Middle School B- FL #183/571 Nat'l #2,564/14,009 High Estero High School D FL #179/667 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lee County · 871,946 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $399,990Address: Estero, FL 33928

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction planModel/plan: Flagstone
• Exterior features: Living area of 1518 (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)Plan name: Flagstone