2556 Lockwood Dr #59 · Mendota Heights, MN 55120

$241,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,228 sqft · Townhouse public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1992 $324/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller calling for Highest & Best 4/23 3pm. Beautiful updated townhome in the Kensington Neighborhood. Full kitchen remodel with new cabinets, stainless steel appliances, farmhouse sink, and granite countertops. Additional upgrades and updates from the furnace and Nest thermostat to the flooring and more! Playground and sports fields in neighborhood with plenty of walking paths throughout Mendota Heights. On top of all that easy to get to the twin cities being located just minutes from highways 35, 494, as well as 62 and 55. Don’t miss out on this updated townhome and book your showing today to see a turnkey home in a quiet, and centralized neighborhood!

Key facts

• $324 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1992

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: New Concepts; Monthly association fee; Association amenities include in-ground sprinkler system; Association fee covers hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, parking, professional management, sewer, snow removal, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (asphalt); 1 garage space
• Utilities: City water (in street); City sewer (in street); Natural gas; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential attached property; Two levels; Entry level includes main floor and upper level
• Construction: Asphalt roof (age over 8 years); Slab foundation; Built with vinyl exterior
• Exterior features: Patio; Vinyl exterior; Light tree coverage; In-ground sprinkler system; Private road with paved streets; association and public maintained road access; county road and no outlet/dead end frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Kitchen center island
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on upper level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (upper level); 1 half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Indoor sprinkler system; Living/Dining room configuration; Main floor laundry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Laundry closet (main level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $242k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $488 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $242k).
• Recommended offer: $220k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 1.3% in Mendota Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#26 in MN, #828 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• West St. Paul-Mendota Hts.-Eagan (suburban): math 42% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #125 of 301 in MN (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mendota Elementary (math 87% / reading 72%, grade A, #12 of 857 statewide, top 2%, 392 students, 21% FRL); Friendly Hills Middle (math 38% / reading 52%, grade D, #113 of 258 statewide, top 45%, 735 students, 44% FRL); Two Rivers High School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C-, #87 of 471 statewide, top 22%, 1,479 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $219,765 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.66%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-7,878
• Equity at exit: $36,008

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $33,852
• Equity at exit: $20,881

Cash invested: $67,620 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55120

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,983 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,266
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,130/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$324
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$626
• Net cashflow: $488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,365

Max offer price $241,500

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $625	-5% $556	+0% $488	+5% $420	+10% $351
Rent	-10% $252	-5% $370	+0% $488	+5% $606	+10% $724
Rate	-1.0pp $610	-0.5pp $550	base $488	+0.5pp $426	+1.0pp $362

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,375
• Closing costs: $7,245
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
710 Vikings Pkwy Eagan, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$2,630	$2.40	0d	6	0.40mi
720 S Plaza Way Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	2.0	1102	$3,795	$3.44	0d	5	1.28mi
725 S Plaza Way Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	2.0	1128	$3,295	$2.92	4d	5	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $324 · $3,888/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $241,500 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $241,500 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $241,500 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $241,500 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $241,500 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $241,500 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $241,500 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $241,500 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $241,500 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $241,500 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $241,500 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $241,500 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $241,500 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $241,500 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    price $247,500
16. 2026-04-23
    price $250,000
17. 2026-03-07
    listed $254,900 Active
18. 2026-03-05
    historical $254,900
19. 2026-03-05
    historical
20. 2026-03-05
    listed $254,900 Active
21. 2022-06-09
    soldstatus $274,048
22. 2022-05-26
    soldstatus $270,000 Sold 673-char remark

    Show marketing remark (673 chars)

    Seller calling for Highest & Best 4/23 3pm. Beautiful updated townhome in the Kensington Neighborhood. Full kitchen remodel with new cabinets, stainless steel appliances, farmhouse sink, and granite countertops. Additional upgrades and updates from the furnace and Nest thermostat to the flooring and more! Playground and sports fields in neighborhood with plenty of walking paths throughout Mendota Heights. On top of all that easy to get to the twin cities being located just minutes from highways 35, 494, as well as 62 and 55. Don’t miss out on this updated townhome and book your showing today to see a turnkey home in a quiet, and centralized neighborhood!

23. 2022-05-06
    status Pending 673-char remark

    Show marketing remark (673 chars)

    Seller calling for Highest & Best 4/23 3pm. Beautiful updated townhome in the Kensington Neighborhood. Full kitchen remodel with new cabinets, stainless steel appliances, farmhouse sink, and granite countertops. Additional upgrades and updates from the furnace and Nest thermostat to the flooring and more! Playground and sports fields in neighborhood with plenty of walking paths throughout Mendota Heights. On top of all that easy to get to the twin cities being located just minutes from highways 35, 494, as well as 62 and 55. Don’t miss out on this updated townhome and book your showing today to see a turnkey home in a quiet, and centralized neighborhood!

24. 2022-04-24
    historical Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 673-char remark

    Show marketing remark (673 chars)

    Seller calling for Highest & Best 4/23 3pm. Beautiful updated townhome in the Kensington Neighborhood. Full kitchen remodel with new cabinets, stainless steel appliances, farmhouse sink, and granite countertops. Additional upgrades and updates from the furnace and Nest thermostat to the flooring and more! Playground and sports fields in neighborhood with plenty of walking paths throughout Mendota Heights. On top of all that easy to get to the twin cities being located just minutes from highways 35, 494, as well as 62 and 55. Don’t miss out on this updated townhome and book your showing today to see a turnkey home in a quiet, and centralized neighborhood!

25. 2022-04-22
    listed $250,000 Active 673-char remark

    Show marketing remark (673 chars)

    Seller calling for Highest & Best 4/23 3pm. Beautiful updated townhome in the Kensington Neighborhood. Full kitchen remodel with new cabinets, stainless steel appliances, farmhouse sink, and granite countertops. Additional upgrades and updates from the furnace and Nest thermostat to the flooring and more! Playground and sports fields in neighborhood with plenty of walking paths throughout Mendota Heights. On top of all that easy to get to the twin cities being located just minutes from highways 35, 494, as well as 62 and 55. Don’t miss out on this updated townhome and book your showing today to see a turnkey home in a quiet, and centralized neighborhood!

26. 2022-04-20
    historical $250,000 673-char remark

    Show marketing remark (673 chars)

    Seller calling for Highest & Best 4/23 3pm. Beautiful updated townhome in the Kensington Neighborhood. Full kitchen remodel with new cabinets, stainless steel appliances, farmhouse sink, and granite countertops. Additional upgrades and updates from the furnace and Nest thermostat to the flooring and more! Playground and sports fields in neighborhood with plenty of walking paths throughout Mendota Heights. On top of all that easy to get to the twin cities being located just minutes from highways 35, 494, as well as 62 and 55. Don’t miss out on this updated townhome and book your showing today to see a turnkey home in a quiet, and centralized neighborhood!

27. 2015-02-10
    soldstatus $126,000
28. 1997-04-17
    soldstatus $84,900
29. 1995-05-05
    soldstatus $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,130 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,417 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$287/yr (+$24/mo · 13.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,798
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,528
• − Property taxes: −$2,130
• − Insurance: −$1,208
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,864
• − Management: −$2,864
• − HOA: −$3,888
• − Depreciation: −$7,025
• Taxable income: $2,291
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$550
• After-tax cash flow: $5,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West St. Paul-Mendota Hts.-Eagan
• NCES district ID: 2742270
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $63,769
• Composite: 42.4/100
• National rank: #3234
• State rank: #125 of 301 in MN

Livability — Mendota Heights

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #828

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mendota Heights, MN
• City population: 5,080
• Population (ZIP): 5,080

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 18% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Romanian 4% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.00%
• Current HPI: 222.5557
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+264.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $247,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $250,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-07 Listed $254,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Coming Soon $254,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Listed $254,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $274,048 Public Records
• 2022-05-26 Sold (MLS) $270,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-06 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-24 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-22 Listed $250,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-20 Coming Soon $250,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records
• 1997-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $84,900 Public Records
• 1995-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,130 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.