208 Denver Ave · Lynchburg, VA 24503

$199,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,716 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1922 5,798 sqft lot $74/sqft · 30% below area Est $233k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Conveniently located just minutes from downtown and the hospitals, this move-in ready 2-story home offers space, flexibility, and strong investment potential. With 5 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, the floor plan features generously sized rooms, hardwood floors throughout, a spacious living room with fireplace, and an open kitchen. The main level includes a pantry, mud room, full bath, and multiple bedroom options, while the second floor adds even more space with additional bedrooms, baths, and a walk-in closet off the primary bedroom. Replacement vinyl windows and vinyl siding add low-maintenance appeal, and the Trex front porch offers a welcoming entry. Laundry can be located on the main level or in the basement for added convenience. Outside, enjoy a backyard and off-street parking. A rare opportunity to own so much house in a location close to work, dining, and downtown amenities.

Key facts

• 5,798 sq ft lot
• Built 1922
• Listed 43 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 176 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $200k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.41%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,176
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -14.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
223 Denver Ave	0.05mi	5/3.5	2,642 (-3%)	1mo	$399,900	$151	91
3 Riverview Pl	0.44mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,990 (+10%)	2mo	$547,000	$183	56
952 Cabell St	0.30mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,408 (-11%)	16mo	$207,400	$86	44
518 Elmwood Ave	0.66mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,461 (-9%)	18mo	$319,900	$130	34
706 Elmwood Avenue Ave	0.74mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,102 (+14%)	6mo	$606,000	$195	32
2013 Early St	0.50mi	6/3.5 (+1)	2,326 (-14%)	21mo	$165,000	$71	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-16,350
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $6,335
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24503

• Active inventory: 176
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,944 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,822/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,625

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $366	-5% $309	+0% $252	+5% $196	+10% $139
Rent	-10% $99	-5% $176	+0% $252	+5% $329	+10% $406
Rate	-1.0pp $353	-0.5pp $303	base $252	+0.5pp $201	+1.0pp $148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
520 Elmwood Ave Lynchburg, VA	5.0	3.0	1800	$2,250	$1.25	45d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-15
   price $199,900 889-char remark

   Show marketing remark (889 chars)

   Conveniently located just minutes from downtown and the hospitals, this move-in ready 2-story home offers space, flexibility, and strong investment potential. With 5 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, the floor plan features generously sized rooms, hardwood floors throughout, a spacious living room with fireplace, and an open kitchen. The main level includes a pantry, mud room, full bath, and multiple bedroom options, while the second floor adds even more space with additional bedrooms, baths, and a walk-in closet off the primary bedroom. Replacement vinyl windows and vinyl siding add low-maintenance appeal, and the Trex front porch offers a welcoming entry. Laundry can be located on the main level or in the basement for added convenience. Outside, enjoy a backyard and off-street parking. A rare opportunity to own so much house in a location close to work, dining, and downtown amenities.

2. 2026-04-30
   price $225,000 889-char remark

   Show marketing remark (889 chars)

   Conveniently located just minutes from downtown and the hospitals, this move-in ready 2-story home offers space, flexibility, and strong investment potential. With 5 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, the floor plan features generously sized rooms, hardwood floors throughout, a spacious living room with fireplace, and an open kitchen. The main level includes a pantry, mud room, full bath, and multiple bedroom options, while the second floor adds even more space with additional bedrooms, baths, and a walk-in closet off the primary bedroom. Replacement vinyl windows and vinyl siding add low-maintenance appeal, and the Trex front porch offers a welcoming entry. Laundry can be located on the main level or in the basement for added convenience. Outside, enjoy a backyard and off-street parking. A rare opportunity to own so much house in a location close to work, dining, and downtown amenities.

3. 2026-04-15
   listed $250,000 Active 889-char remark

   Show marketing remark (889 chars)

   Conveniently located just minutes from downtown and the hospitals, this move-in ready 2-story home offers space, flexibility, and strong investment potential. With 5 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, the floor plan features generously sized rooms, hardwood floors throughout, a spacious living room with fireplace, and an open kitchen. The main level includes a pantry, mud room, full bath, and multiple bedroom options, while the second floor adds even more space with additional bedrooms, baths, and a walk-in closet off the primary bedroom. Replacement vinyl windows and vinyl siding add low-maintenance appeal, and the Trex front porch offers a welcoming entry. Laundry can be located on the main level or in the basement for added convenience. Outside, enjoy a backyard and off-street parking. A rare opportunity to own so much house in a location close to work, dining, and downtown amenities.

4. 2019-07-02
   soldstatus $130,000
5. 2019-07-01
   soldstatus $130,000 349-char remark

   Show marketing remark (349 chars)

   Investment opportunity. So convenient to downtown and minutes from hospitals. 5 bedrooms 2.5 bath, large rooms, new windows, hardwood throughout, great open kitchen, pantry, mud room - so much house. Laundry can be main level or in the basement. Back yard off street parking, vinyl siding, trex front porch, replacement vinyl windows. Move in ready.

6. 2018-08-03
   listed $139,900 349-char remark

   Show marketing remark (349 chars)

   Investment opportunity. So convenient to downtown and minutes from hospitals. 5 bedrooms 2.5 bath, large rooms, new windows, hardwood throughout, great open kitchen, pantry, mud room - so much house. Laundry can be main level or in the basement. Back yard off street parking, vinyl siding, trex front porch, replacement vinyl windows. Move in ready.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,822 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,822 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,328
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,822
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,866
• − Management: −$1,866
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$238
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$57
• After-tax cash flow: $3,086/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 20,419
• Household income: $89,137
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 506.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -220.75%
• Current HPI: 227.1443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+42.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $199,900 LMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $225,000 LMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $250,000 LMLS
• 2019-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-01 Sold (MLS) $130,000 LMLS
• 2018-08-03 Listed $139,900 LMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,822 · +16.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.